Dallas Mavericks 106, Memphis Grizzlies 102

Posted by Rob Mahoney on April 1, 2010 under Recaps | View Comments

Photo by Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images.

Box Score — Play-By-Play — Shot Chart — GameFlow

“Don’t wait for extraordinary opportunities. Seize common occasions and make them great. Weak men wait for opportunities; strong men make them.“
-Orison Swett Marden

The debate over the importance of point differential is essentially a debate over the the value of winning close games. On one extreme is the camp that operates under the assumption that close victories are games of skill; better teams execute at a higher level than others, and ultimately it’s a combination of that execution and overall talent that decides who wins games, no matter the margin. The group firmly entrenched on the other side of the dividing line insists that close games are a product of chance; there are so many variables from opening tip to the final buzzer that a slim margin of victory proves little more than which way the ball tended to bounce.

Somewhere in the middle lies the truth, and we saw both the power of skill and the power of chance at work in the Mavs’ improbable victory over the Grizzlies on Wednesday.

Dirk Nowitzki (28 points, 9-23 FG, five rebounds, six assists) made just three of his first 15 shots, a big reason why Dallas trailed for a majority of last night’s game. It wasn’t to last, though. Dirk is one of the best clutch performers in the game, and when he smelled blood in the water in the fourth quarter, his instincts kicked in. He chipped in 19 points in the fourth quarter and overtime on 6-of-8 shooting, digging himself and the Mavs out of a slump just in time to save the day and grab the win. The 50th win, which as you may have heard, is kind of a big deal.

Dirk doesn’t get a chance to play hero without being given that opportunity, though. If Mike Conley doesn’t leave three points at the free throw line, maybe Memphis never has an opportunity to completely botch their final play of regulation. If Zach Randolph doesn’t come up just short on one of his trips in the lane, we’re looking at a verdict in just 48 minutes. If Marc Gasol doesn’t leave the game early with a shoulder injury, I’m probably writing a much more solemn piece this morning.

Likewise, if the Mavs don’t hit the offensive boards hard in the first quarter while firing blanks, maybe they never have a shot at pulling a win out of nowhere. Part of those rebounds is chance, but just as important is the Mavs’ consistent effort on the glass. Memphis actually leads the league in rebounding rate, but Dallas outpaced them on the boards until late in the game. If we’re preaching the “every play counts” mantra, the Mavs’ performance on the boards — even if they ended up a few shy of the Grizzlies’ total — certainly qualifies as a game-altering play.

Brendan Haywood gets called for a questionable foul call, Dirk hits an incredible fadeaway jumper from the baseline. The ball goes through Erick Dampier’s hands, Jason Terry connects on an impressive pull-up jumper. DeMarre Carroll goes 0-for-2 at the free throw line, Jason Kidd hounds O.J. Mayo into an impossible shot attempt. A team can do so much to help its cause in games such as this, but even the fine works of hardwood greats need the added benefit of a little luck. Sometimes it’s the baseline referee seeing (or not seeing) enough contact to make a call, and sometimes it’s a Rudy Gay three-pointer being off by a matter of centimeters.

For that reason, winning like this on a regular season Wednesday night doesn’t mean all that much. Winning like this on a regular season Wednesday night after proving all season long that late-game execution is a Maverick trademark means a great deal. It’s still troubling that Dallas isn’t capable of dismissing inferior opponents in more dominating fashion. That would be nice to see, but the success the Mavs have had in rallying back from deficits late in games this season has evolved beyond mere happenstance. This isn’t a quaint trend, but the way this team operates. When it comes down to winning time, the Mavs get it done. Some of their success is derived from luck, and it would be foolish to debate that, but I refuse to accept the idea that the late-game execution we’ve seen from the Mavs this season is anything less than a basketball truth.

It obviously doesn’t come into effect every night, and on numerous occasions this season the Mavs have surrendered insurmountable leads to their opponents, likely by keeping their own impressive comeback track record in mind. There’s no problem with Dallas having the ability to come from behind, but knowing that they have that ability…aye, there’s the rub. Dallas will surrender early leads to opponents (not that they did in this one) knowing that they’ve lived through similar circumstances before. Sometimes they come back just like they probably think they will, and other times it bites them in the ass.

This time it didn’t, and bringing up that scenario at all isn’t exactly fair. The Mavs were working on defense and working to get good shots offensively, it just wasn’t their day. Dirk was ice cold, Shawn Marion (one points, 0-6 FG, four rebounds, two turnovers) couldn’t hit anything, the entire team had their fingers sufficiently buttered (18 turnovers for the night, 13 in the first half), and the only reason the Mavs were able to hang in this game at all was due to a series of well-timed runs to keep themselves within striking distance.

Most of the credit for those runs goes to Jason Terry (29 points, six assists, four steals, three turnovers), also known as The Only Maverick Who Could Score For the First Three Quarters. I know JET is known around these parts as a great fourth quarter performer, and he is. Last night, he had just two points on 0-for-5 shooting in the fourth (with an additional four points in overtime to be fair). I don’t say this to point and laugh at Terry or even to point out some flaw, but to indicate just how important his 29 points were or more specifically, the 23 of them that came in the game’s first three quarters.

Most of the credit for those three quarters goes to O.J. Mayo (27 points, 10-16 FG, five rebounds), Zach Randolph (24 points, 8-21 FG, 12 rebounds), and Mike Conley (25 points, six rebounds, five assists, no turnovers). Mayo’s shooting stroke looked damn good, and he was a one-man offense in the third (in terms of his production, not any implied selfishness) when the rest of the Grizz started cooling off a bit. No performance should impress more than Conley’s though, who looked surprisingly dominant against the Mavs guards and actually made layups. If you’ve watched much of Memphis this season, you know how much of a minor miracle that is. Randolph simply did what he does, although Brendan Haywood did a nice job of making Zach’s life difficult. Not every jumper was heavily contested and not every shot from deep in the paint completely smothered, but Haywood did a decent job on a tough cover.

And even though Shawn Marion didn’t have one of his better offensive nights (did he have an offensive night at all?), he did force Rudy Gay (11 points, 5-18 FG, eight rebounds, four turnovers) into some difficult looks. That said, it wasn’t all Shawn; Rudy had plenty of opportunities to hit open jumpers but just couldn’t convert, which you can chalk up to Marion “knocking him off his game” or Gay just having a rough night. Anyone’s guess is as good as mine. All we know is that Gay had plenty of chances to hit but didn’t, and some of that is because of Marion.

That’s really the story of the night. The Grizzlies had plenty of chances to win this game but didn’t, and some of that is because of the Mavericks. Some of that is solid fundamental defense, good rotations, and solid rebounding. Some of it is Memphis giving the Mavs the opportunity to come back, which is both an indictment of their finishing ability and some bad breaks. Having success in the playoffs is going to take a similar mix of skill and luck, and though the latter is as frustrating as it is uncontrollable, the former happens to be a Maverick strength.

Closing thoughts to come.

Officially Unofficial

Posted by Rob Mahoney on January 28, 2010 under News | View Comments

Yahoo’s Adrian Wojnarowski and Marc Spears have unearthed the All-Star reserves, with a few surprises.

Dirk Nowitzki’s exclusion was not one of them. His selection was never even debatable. But the Western Conference reserves will be Chris Paul, Brandon Roy, Nowitzki, Kevin Durant, Pau Gasol, Deron Williams, and and Zach Randolph. Great picks all the way down the line, and particular kudos to the coaches for picking this crop over Denver’s Chauncey Billups. Billups is a fine player, but this just isn’t his year. Plus, I think there’s a very legitimate argument to be made for Tyreke Evans over Chauncey, anyway…but we’ll save that for another day.

In the East, the reserves will be Rajon Rondo, Joe Johnson, Chris Bosh, Gerald Wallace, Al Horford, Paul Pierce, and Derrick Rose. In related news, it really, really sucks to be David Lee right now. He’s doing just about everything humanly possible (ahem, offensively), and still can’t catch a break. Pierce is having an off-year, but his selection was more or less assumed. I just wish we could see Lee and Josh Smith in the game, but no such luck.

Heard It Through the Grapevine

Posted by Rob Mahoney on January 20, 2010 under The Grapevine | View Comments

• The Mavs have faced some pretty stiff competition this season, as the entire Western Conference has seemingly stepped up its game. But Dallas is still second in the conference standings, and the rest of the regular season schedule could smile on the Mavs. Via the excellent @mavstats (if you’re not following mavsstats on Twitter or RSS, do so immediately): “The Mavs have the weakest remaining schedule of any West team at .478 (3rd weakest in NBA). The hardest? Denver at .539.”
• Kris Humphries is off to a hell of a start in New Jersey. After three games as a Net (which is an absurdly small sample size), he’s averaging 15 PPG (.517 FG%) and 7.7 RPG. Translate his numbers into their per-minute values, and it gets even more impressive: 22.8 points per 36 minutes and 11.7 rebounds per 36 minutes. That’s a PER of 26.1. I wouldn’t expect Hump’s numbers to be quite so gaudy at the end of the season, but still. Wow.
• Josh Howard was anything but impressive offensively Monday night, but Rick Carlisle noted his second half defense against the Celtics. Which reminds me of something I forgot to mention in the recap: Ray Allen had a tidy 21 points on 9-15 shooting, but both Josh Howard and Jason Terry did a terrific job of chasing him around screens. Having to guard the likes of Allen (or Detroit’s Rip Hamilton) is not only unenviable, but physically draining. It takes incredible endurance to not only chase Ray, but fight through screen after screen, and both Josh and JET refused to be deterred.
• Brendan Jackson of Celtics Hub: “These are mostly guys who fall under the “match up nightmare for any team” and “gonna get his” categories.  Still, the C’s have a huge disadvantage when trying to defend more mobile power forwards like Dirk, Durant, and Stoudemire.  I don’t even see this changing much when KG gets back.”
• I like John Hollinger, but in his choices for All-Star starters, he jumps the shark a bit by naming Tim Duncan the starting power forward and Zach Randolph the starting center. Here’s his explanation: “How good has Duncan been? He leads all Western Conference big men in estimated wins added despite playing only 32 minutes a game and sitting out three games. It’s just unfortunate that he’s on the ballot at power forward, because we could have used Duncan as the starting center and listed Dirk Nowitzki (who likely will beat out Duncan in the fan voting) as a starter at forward. Instead we have to do this…” No problem whatsoever with Duncan getting a nod, but Hollinger’s positional reasoning is confusing at best, impossible at worst. He says that it’s a shame that Duncan is on the ballot as a forward, because otherwise he could have put Dirk at forward and Duncan at center. Instead, he selects Duncan at forward, and then anoints Zach Randolph, who is very obviously a power forward, as the center. Right.
• Shawn Marion pins ball movement as the key to the Mavs’ success, and he’s certainly not wrong. Sometimes it’s all about the basics.
• Rasheed Wallace unhappy with the officiating? Nawwww.

Heard It Through the Grapevine

Posted by Rob Mahoney on January 1, 2010 under The Grapevine | View Comments

• Have you had enough of the decade rankings yet? If not, check out John Hollinger’s top ten players of the decade (Insider only), in which Dirk takes top 5 honors: “Nowitzki’s résumé lacks only an NBA title for validation; the Dwyane Wade Show in 2006 and a knee injury in 2003 eliminated his best chances. (Side note: Don’t forget that fadeaway he hit over Shaq in Game 5 in Miami before the foul call on Wade). Otherwise, he won one MVP award and had three other seasons that were MVP-caliber. He also made the All-NBA team nine years despite a surplus of quality players at his position. Additionally, Nowitzki’s teams won at least 50 games every full season this decade, capped by 67 in 2006-07; that’s a feat only Tim Duncan can match.” Hollinger also notes Jason Kidd as an honorable mention.
• M. Haubs dubs Mavs-Spurs ‘06 the most memorable playoff series of the decade, and Dirk’s 50-point performance against the Suns in the playoffs registers among the finest playoff performances of the decade.
• Paul Swanson, the stats guy for the Minnesota Timberwolves, singled out a few “Garbage Time All-Stars,” including the Mavs’ own Kris Humphries. (via DOH)
• Could Dirk have taken a three to potentially tie the game last night? Sure. But swinging the ball to Jason Kidd, who pump faked his way to an open look, is hardly a settling for a “contested, desperation 3.” And given the way Dirk shot the ball to close the game (Dirk had missed his last six jumpers; his last made jump shot came with 9:59 remaining in the third quarter), I was completely comfortable with his decision to give up the rock.
• Jeff “Skin Wade” voiced his concerns over Kidd’s minutes, and while I don’t have any fears about Kidd’s durability (he’s played 80+ games over each of the last four seasons while averaging 36.4 minutes per game) I completely agree with Mike Fisher’s suggestion: “The headless-chicken nature of the Dallas offense when Kidd isn’t on the floor has occurred when [Barea] is running the point and it has occurred when Jet is running the point. But because the bulk of Roddy Beaubois’ playing time (back in the good ol’ days when he played) came at the 2, alongside Kidd. So we really haven’t seen Roddy at the 1, imposing his potentially precocious will on a defense. So are we trying to shave just a few minutes off of Kidd’s load? I’m never quite able to quantify what happens positively to a guy’s body if he plays 34 minutes a game instead of 35, but for the sake of argument. …If we’re trying to shave just a few minutes off of Kidd’s load … and if we agree that the Dallas offense doesn’t quite click when JJB or Jet are in charge … are we sure there aren’t one or two spots in occasional games in which [Beaubois] wouldn’t be helpful for one or two minutes?”
• Dirk Nowitzki disagreed with my assessment of the zone defense’s effectiveness. I wouldn’t say that the zone was “really, really effective,” but a video review could be in order.
• Rick Carlisle, diagnosing what went wrong when (via Eddie Sefko):  “I thought our undoing was a sluggish first quarter…They hit us with transition points and 3s, and the rest of the game was even, maybe even in our favor.”
• What has the NBA learned this decade? Not to pay Mike Bibby $80 million, Zach Randolph $84 million, Jermaine O’Neal $126 million, and our old pal Erick Dampier $73 million.
• Sure they can, Eddie, but they won’t.
• In 1998, the Mavs completed one of the great fleeces in NBA history by trading the draft rights for Robert ‘Tractor’ Traylor to the Milwaukee Bucks for Pat Garrity and the draft rights to a certain lanky, German power forward. The Mavs flipped Garrity in a package for Steve Nash, and the rest, as they say, is history. As for Traylor? Well, a lot has happened between then and now, but he’s currently having a rough go of it playing professionally in Italy. (Also: a Travis Best sighting!)

Dallas Mavericks 106, Memphis Grizzlies 101: Abridged

Posted by Rob Mahoney on December 26, 2009 under Recaps | View Comments

Photo by Danny Bollinger/NBAE via Getty Images.

Box Score — Play-By-Play — Shot Chart — GameFlow

“Success is not a place at which one arrives but rather the spirit with which one undertakes and continues the journey.”
-Alex Noble

*A quick programming note. From now on, the four factors values will be precise, empirical calculations rather than estimations. The calculated values are courtesy of HoopData.com’s more detailed box scores, which will also be linked (when available) as the game box score.

• While this afternoon’s game was night a contest of great statistical achievement on the defensive end (the Mavs’ defensive efficiency on the night was 11.4 points/100 possessions lower than their season average), something must be said about the Mavs’ ability to limit Zach Randolph after his early domination. A tandem of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol is not one that’s easy to counter, due to their high/low post interchangeability and the combination of strength and touch. Both players can show a little range and can certainly get things done on the low block, and though Gasol had merely a productive first half, Randolph was off the charts. Zeebo had 19 points in the first quarter and five early in the second, but over the game’s final 33:40, Randolph managed to score just six points. While it only slowed the Grizzlies enough for the Mavs to scrape out a lead, it took away Memphis’ most dominant offensive weapon at the time. That kind of thing completely changes the flow of the game, and the nine point deficit at the time was reversed into a five point positive margin.
  
• Shawn Marion (10 points, seven rebounds) bounced back from his worst game of the season by playing a very productive 25 minutes. That said, his minutes didn’t necessarily come easy, as Rudy Gay (22 points on 22 shots, 10 rebounds) simply could not be denied. Marion had good defensive positioning time and time again, made a little contact to push Gay away from his shot of choice, and yet Rudy would lean or elevate before finishing possession after possession with a make. What’s a bit odd is that Marion left the game with 3:27 left in the third quarter and never returned, despite throwing down a pair of dunks and creating extra possessions with his hustle.
  
• A lot of the Mavs’ early defensive sequences ended tragically: Dallas would play 10-20 seconds of pretty incredible defense (nice on-ball pressure, ball denial, perfect rotations) before one of the Grizz would force up a shot, only to see Gasol, Gay, or Randolph pull in an offensive rebound for a clear bucket or a fresh shot clock. Considering that the starting lineup features four solid to great rebounders by position, that’s not a result I would expect on a regular basis. Still, this isn’t the first time the Mavs have been shown up on the boards (the final margin was 49-40 in favor of Memphis, who also won the offensive rebounding battle 20-10), and while I’m not quite ready to call it a recurring problem, it’s something to keep under your pillow.
• Drew Gooden missed the game with back spasms, and as a result, Dirk saw some minutes at center and Kris Humphries was pulled out from beneath the couch. Hump can be such a positive force for this team, but the man is simply the master of the anticlimactic possession. I appreciate his efforts on the boards, but it’s a bit disheartening to watch all of his work end in a blown layup attempt. Keep doing what you do, Hump, but hopefully next time you’ll be doing what you do just a little bit better.
• The Mavs looked completely incapable of defending the rim without Erick Dampier in the game. I don’t know if it’s primarily a shift in coverages or just a perceived shift on part of the opposition, but Rudy Gay danced down the lane for slams whenever Damp took a breather on the bench.
• Promising offensive nights from both Jason Terry (23 points, 7-18 FG, five assists) and Josh Howard (11 points, 4-6 FG). JET took every touch as a personal invitation to attack the rim, and Terry and the Mavs reaped the benefits later as a more confident JET made plays of consequence. In addition, Jason looked to expand his on-court contributions beyond the points column, and his playmaking in the two man game or after penetration opened up new wrinkles of the Maverick offense. All of a sudden Shawn Marion was wide open and in position to score, and Dirk Nowitzki was left all alone at the top of the key or out on the wing. Josh’s totals don’t demand your attention, but his 25 minutes were an exercise in minimalism. He didn’t over-dribble, he didn’t hold the ball too long, and he didn’t think too much after receiving the ball. Howard looked completely in the flow of the game without feeling the need to dominate the ball, and while the Mavs should certainly expect more raw production out of Howard, they can still appreciate his discretion.
  
• The Mavs shot and scored at a terrific rate, but they simply did not get to the free throw line. Excluding six late FTAs during the game’s final moments, the Mavs attempted just 14 free throws on the game, less than half of the Grizzlies’ 29. That said, it’s not safe to assume that the discrepancy is attributable to the Mavs’ shot selection; against the Grizz, the Mavs shot 22 attempts at the rim (with 15 makes), which is comparable to their season average of 24.6 attempts (with 14.7 makes).
  
• The Mavericks took care of the ball. 9.9 is a pretty ridiculous turnover rate (As a reminder, TOR is equal to the percentage of a team’s possessions that end in a turnover. Atlanta is the most careful team in the league, and their average is 20.3.), and it’s a testament to the Mavs’ efficient offense that they were able to finish with such a number in spite of Dirk’s abnormal four turnovers.
  
• Dirk Nowitzki (20 points, 10-16 FG, four rebounds, three assists) was as wonderful as you’d expect, even if he was a bit more turnover-prone than usual. But for those of you looking for a storyline, this game wasn’t about what Dirk did, but what he didn’t have to do. Seven Mavericks scored in double figures, and Dirk didn’t score a point over the game’s final 15 minutes. Terry, Howard, and company were ready and willing to take over, and they closed the game beautifully.
  
• Only two teams in the Western Conference have yet to lose ten games. One of them is Los Angeles (23-5), reigning champions and resident “team-to-beat.” The other is Dallas (21-9).

Shot location data courtesy of HoopData.com.

Heard It Through the Grapevine

Posted by Rob Mahoney on July 9, 2009 under The Grapevine | View Comments

EDIT: Some additions:

• Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel (via TQC): “While watching summer-league action at RDV Sportsplex, Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard yelled at Marcin Gortat, joking, ‘Hey, get out of here. You don’t want to play for the Magic anymore.’ Gortat had just returned from a meeting with Magic General Manager Otis Smith and Gortat’s agent, Guy Zucker, to discuss the offer sheet he signed with the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday, the first day that NBA free agents can officially sign contracts with their new teams. ‘Five years, $34 million,’ Gortat said, so happy with the Mavs’ offer that he broke an unwritten rule among players who never divulge the count and the amount…The Magic could match and trade Gortat to receive compensation this season. They would have to wait 90 days from the start of the season to deal him — hoping that he stays healthy until December — but that doesn’t appear to be on Smith’s agenda. ‘It’s doable,” Smith said. “But right now I’m still thinking the other way [not to match].’”
• Jason Kidd may have been closer to New York than we thought (transcribed by Tas Melas of Sports Radio Interviews): [Host, Dan Patrick:] Was anyone else interested in you other than Dallas and New York? [Kidd:] ‘Those were the two teams - to have the opportunity to play in New York, in the sense of the Garden.  (Host: How close were you to going to New York?)  I was very close, New York did everything right in the sense of the three-year contract, but Cuban and the Mavs stepped up, and I think we’re pretty close to competing with the Lakers, and the elite teams, Denver, in the western conference.  So, I thought it was best for me to stay.’”
• An excellent break-down of the Mavs’ summer league team (via Ridiculous Upside).
• If you think the Mavs are paying too much for Marcin Gortat or Shawn Marion, you clearly haven’t seen the contract the Cleveland Cavaliers just gave to Anderson Varejao.
• This is a damn travesty.

Original links:

• Don’t forget about Quinton Ross, who should slide into Antoine Wright’s shoes.
• Brendan K. O’Grady, author of 2nd Round Reach, crosses paths with Dirk in his very interesting analysis of Pau Gasol’s role in the league as a “Euro” in a guest post at FreeDarko: “As the best player of the 2006-2007 season, Dirk Nowitzki was poised to become the greatest Euro in history. His Mavericks were a confluence of players with complimentary and very American styles (as presented by Stackhouse, Jason Terry, and especially Josh Howard) yet all were molded around Dirk’s singular, distinctly foreign presence. He brought an alien skill set, and altered the course of the NBA’s season with the effect that only a 7-foot white shooting guard masquerading as a power forward could have on the game…And for prolonged stretches in that year, Dirk’s Euroness was synonymous with the strength of granite mountains, and no longer spoken of with the superficial novelty that once would have come in the same breath as the words “Nikoloz Tskitishvili.” After the first such sustained period of brilliance from the caste’s greatest hero, no more demoralizing a moment could have existed for the Euro than when a shattered Dirk, all sunken-eyes and vacant smile, shook hands and posed with Stern as he accepted his MVP trophy, just a week after being eliminated from contention during the anarchic Warriors’ impossible paroxysm against reality.”
• Anthony Parker appears Cleveland-bound, so cross him off your biannual exception wish lists.  Should be good times for the Cavs.
• Interestingly enough, the Shawn Marion trade has temporarily stalled the Zach Randolph-to-Memphis deal.  It shouldn’t be anything more than a hiccup, but Clippernation is still holding its collective breath.  (via Clips Nation)
• Bethlehem Shoals of The Baseline: “It’s worth noting that, before [Steve] Nash, [Shawn] Marion put up nearly identical stats with [Stephon] Marbury as the Suns point guard, which means The Matrix is either more independent than we thought or Marbury deserves a little credit for something. He’s also 31, which matters more for him than Dirk since his game is premised on athleticism. But it’s not like the Mavs have an option other than to load up now, try the best they can to win a championship in Dirk’s later years, and then start over. While Marion’s far from ideal, with a more up-tempo offense he might get some of his groove back, and it doesn’t hurt that he once played with Kidd (and Kidd’s good at making life easy for his kind of player).”
• Marcin Gortat, on advice he’s received regarding his first big contract (via Eddy Rivera of Third Quarter Collapse): “Yeah, I’ve had a chance to talk to a couple of guys. They all told me that I have to stay humble and just don’t forget about the stuff that I was doing the last two years. I’m talking about being the first in the gym, working on my game, improving every part of m y game so like I said, it’s going to be a huge opportunity for me. I believe I’m going to get more playing time and my role might be bigger next year so I’m just going to try to show that I’m a better basketball player.”  More with Gortat here.