Maverick Hoops Summit: Previewing Mavs-Spurs

Posted by Rob Mahoney on April 17, 2010 under Previews | 8 Comments to Read


You’ve already read my thoughts on the Mavs’ series against the Spurs, and if not I implore you to do so. However, the beauty of the internet lies in the multitude of perspectives that are readily available just a click or two away, and I’ve brought a few of those perspectives here to The Two Man Game for a media roundtable of sorts. Zac Crain (FrontBurner/D Magazine), Mark Followill (TXA 21/Fox Sports Southwest), Jeff ‘Skin’ Wade (103.3 FM ESPN Radio, TXA 21/Fox Sports Southwest, ESPN Dallas), Tim MacMahon and Jeff Caplan (ESPN Dallas), Art Garcia (NBA.com), Mike Fisher and David Lord (DallasBasketball.com), and Gina Miller (TXA 21) were kind enough to join me for a discussion of the upcoming series.

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Rob Mahoney: Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker are pretty good at the whole basketball thing, but the Spurs are notorious for consistently boasting a capable crop of role players. This year’s supporting cast may not be as daunting as in years’ past, but which of the non-’Big Three’ Spurs do you anticipate giving the Mavs the most trouble?

Zac Crain: Even though he hasn’t fully clicked this season, I’ll say Richard Jefferson. Roger Mason is a feast or famine shooter, and George Hill is, at times, worrisome. But with Manu back being, seemingly, a fully operational Death Star, I think the defensive attention the Mavs will have to pay him might open things up for Jefferson a bit. Remember: his best game as a Spur came against the Mavs. If nothing else, it will likely mean Caron Butler expends more energy on that side of the court.

Mark Followill: I gotta go with George Hill, assuming (of course) he is healthy.  Hill was great while Tony Parker recently missed 16 games, averaging 15.5 points and shooting 50% as the Spurs went 11-5. Hill can drive, shoot 3′s and defend, and even if he returns to a role coming off the bench he will probably be on the floor at the end of games. If crusty old Gregg Popovich says you’re his favorite player, then that’s good enough for me in terms of judging whether or not this kid has the heart and toughness to be a player under the intense playoff spotlight.

Jeff ‘Skin’ Wade
: I was pretty worried about George Hill and without knowing the extent of his ankle injury, I’d have to say I’m still worried about him. As best as I could tell, he didn’t look to be in too bad of shape when he left the floor Wednesday night, but that doesn’t really tell you anything. I’ll assume he’ll be ready and my worries begin there. That guy does everything well. And I know people like to goof on Matt Bonner ’cause he doesn’t look like a baller and he has quite possibly the worst nickname in the history of pro sports (can’t even bring myself to type it here), but he burns you on pick and pops and in the minimum possession game that we anticipate the Spurs will want, those threes are painful. If the refs let San Antonio get really physical, then I’ve seen him frustrate Dirk before (the 93-76 Mavs loss in San Antonio last season comes to mind). But hey, he’s no Ryan Bowen, and I’m sure Dirk’s happy about that.

Tim MacMahon: Can I get an injury report on George Hill before giving my answer? He might actually have pushed past Tony Parker to become the Spurs’ third-best player. Richard Jefferson has been a bust, but he’ s still a scoring threat. But if not Hill, DeJuan Blair is the Spur that worries me most. Not sure if Pop will trust the rookie enough to give him significant playoff burn, but he’s a wide-body beast who showed in the regular-season finale that he can give Erick Dampier and Brendan Haywood fits.

David Lord: In my crystal ball, no one. Any or all of the SA role players will make some plays (if I have to predict, probably someone will hit a big 3 here or there), but from what I’ve seen, with Parker still feeling his way, the Spurs chances will rest almost entirely on the ability of Duncan and/or Ginobili to have one of those sustained all-world caliber series they have had before and carry the Spurs on their back.

Art Garcia: It starts with George Hill. At this time last year, Popovich didn’t trust rookie. Hill didn’t get off the bench in the Dallas series until it was too late. Now he’s vital. He’s long, athletic, gets to the rim and defends. And don’t sleep on DeJuan Blair, though I’m not sure how much time Pop finds for this year’s rookie.

Mike Fisher: I’m sure the Spurs would like to unleash George Hill and/or DeJuan Blair, but there are some problems there: The more minutes those guys get, the more it means Parker and Duncan, respectively, must be sitting due to rest (or ineffectiveness). It’s one of the issues with teams’ ballyhooed “depth’’ (and an issue the Mavs have, too): Once we get to this point, that ninth guy in the rotation is a minute factor compared to the front-of-the-rotation heavy-lifters.

Hill is twice the player, statistically, that he was a year ago as a rookie. And next year, DeJuan might be twice the player he is now.

But they are still supplementary at best.

And that’s not even counting the facts that if you play Hill, you might be asking him to do it on one ankle … and if you play DeJuan, he’s more likely to collect fouls as he is to go 20/20 again.

Gina Miller: McDyess for what he can do against Dirk defensively. Popovich because he’s such a smart coach and so good at making adjustments.  Richard Jefferson was good against Dallas this year (put up 16 a game) but I have heard from some San Antonio sources that he just doesn’t fit in well.

Jeff Caplan: The first guy I’m sure is on the tip of everyone’s tongue is George Hill, and we’ll just have to wait and see if he’s available and if he is, how well he can move on that bum right ankle. It’s too bad really. Hill’s had a heckuva year and it’s a shame to see the young guy not at full strength. However, my key role guy is none other than Richard Jefferson. He’s had a tough, tough year. Every time I flipped on a Spurs game, Jefferson was getting the mother lode from Popovich. But Jefferson has played better the last month of the season. He’s really excelled playing with Manu Ginobili, who’s probably the closest thing to a Jason Kidd who helped Jefferson thrive in Jersey. Jefferson is rebounding better, he has good size, and can shoot the 3-ball. If he gets hot, and he can, he can be trouble.


RM: In a perfect world, Rodrigue Beaubous’ cup would overfloweth with minutes and shot attempts, and he’d have all the opportunities in the world. Life’s not only a bit less perfect, but far more complicated; despite all of Beaubois’ strengths, he’s still a rookie with zero playoff experience. J.J. Barea, on the other hand, made a killing last year against the Spurs in the playoffs, and his ability to irritate Tony Parker defensively and penetrate against the Spurs’ D was a big reason why Dallas won decisively. How should Rick Carlisle make sense of the dilemma between a proven pest to the Spurs and the seemingly bottomless scoring potential of the rook?

Zac Crain: As much as I love Roddy, I think Carlisle would be smart to stick with the proven formula. In other words: JJ gets the backup minutes and Beaubois gets spot duty. That said, I think Carlisle needs to have the guts to pull the trigger with Roddy if 1) the Mavs need an energy boost and/or 2) Barea isn’t getting it done. He’ll make mistakes, but I think the positives outweigh the negatives. Plus, he’s one of the few Mavs Pop hasn’t (completely) gameplanned for.

Mark Followill
: Great question and more than anything should give us all a taste of the challenges of the job of NBA head coach. When Roddy had a chance to play backup point recently after his 40 point explosion he didnt play like the dynamic scorer we have seen some nights this year. In terms of being able to run the team for the minutes that Kidd is out I’d have to initially give the nod to Barea and turn to Roddy if JJ struggles. I still maintain Roddy’s greatest success this year has been as a scoring 2 next to Kidd. If coaching is all about putting players in the best spot to be successful then Roddy’s likely role is the x-factor guy who can play next to Kidd and ignite the team and crowd with his ability to score.

Jeff ‘Skin’ Wade: Is this where I’m supposed to employ the “x-factor” cliché? I think Rick Carlisle took the most unnecessary beating from the fan base in his handling of Beaubois. I thought he put him in situations where he thought he’d be successful and he was. I thought he was more careful in situations that were a little more “perilous” because so much was on the line for a veteran team. Looking back, not a lot of wriggle room, was there? Barea isn’t even sniffing Roddy’s talents, but he’s a veteran who has performed well in several clutch situations last season when he earned Rick’s confidence, and then as you noted Rob, against San Antone in the playoffs. In a playoff series, execution is so critical and every possession is at a premium. I think that was one of the reasons Pop tightened the reins on Hill at the end of last season – he was learning the point after playing off the ball in college and he was rookie on top of that. There are plenty of Spurs fans who’ll argue that it was a bad decision. Maybe it was, or maybe it was just residue from his naked pics – who knows? I think that If Rick throws Roddy out there it’ll be with J-Kidd and I think Roddy will have an impact. If it was my team, I’d be willing to go down that particular road if JET or Caron are struggling. I fear that if Roddy gets playoff point minutes, it’ll resemble more of his performance in the home game against the Lakers than the road game at Golden State. I think their sets with Roddy at the one would be too limited to be effective in a playoff series and it’d put enormous pressure on your offense to come from transition opportunities created by stops. And keep in mind that a long first round means Kidd will log heavy minutes, so the minutes may be so limited here that it won’t really matter.

Tim MacMahon: I’d like to see Roddy B. get a stint in the second quarter of each game. If he’s feeling it, let him roll. If not, let him ride the bench. But, since Rick Carlisle refuses to ask for my advice, I expect him to ride pine for the playoffs.

David Lord: Ride the hot hand. Both should (and will) get their chances.

Art Garcia: You roll with what you know, at least at first. Barea has been on this stage and performed well, so if I’m Rick, I’m going with J.J. to in the three-guard look and to back up Kidd. But if Barea struggles, I think we’ve all seen enough from Roddy B to throw him out there. The rookie appears fearless and, if given the chance, could make a big play … for either team.

Mike Fisher: Many Mavs-watchers have given up trying to predict Rick’s handling of Roddy B. Many Mavs-watchers have also gone nuts trying to understand it. The end result is obviously positive; Beaubois came from nowhere (oh, OK, Pointe-à-Pitre) to a place where he is statistically the greatest rookie perimeter shooter in NBA history. (Yes, really: at 51.8 FG percent, 40.9 3-pointers percent and 80.8 FT percent, he’s the only rookie guard ever to enter “The 50/40/80 Club.’’

My argument is that represents evidence that this isn’t the normal rookie. My argument continues: Roddy B is literally the only person in that locker room who hasn’t been through these sort of basketball wars – and therefore can be “hammocked’’ by so many teammates, coaches and staffers who have.

If JJB pestered Parker last year (and he did) … think what Roddy B might do?

And then there is this, and it goes beyond record-breaking stats or historical precedents: Other teams cannot guard Roddy B. If I’m Rick, I damn sure give Beaubois a taste of the postseason … and if he holds up in his first minute of play, I’d given him a second minute … and then a third.

Gina Miller
: I think we’ll see Beaubois get very little time.  The mistakes he could make are much more costly now.

Jeff Caplan: You’re right, J.J. was very good last year against the Spurs, averaging 10.0 points and 4.6 points. Kidd averaged 10.0 and 5.6 (of course Kidd outrebounded Barea 30-10 and out-stealed - is that a word? – him 12-2). Barea told me today (Saturday) actually that he doesn’t think the Spurs guard the pick and roll well, especially up top with Dirk setting the pick. He said he picked apart the Spurs that way and got to the rim, which he did. Look, Barea is going to play. He’s a fourth-year guy and has earned the right. As exciting as Beaubois is — and he is exciting — I don’t look for him to have much run. Of course, you say something like that and the unpredictable Rick Carlisle will have him in during crunch time. You never know. I also think back to last season’s series and I wonder if Popovich regrets not letting George Hill off the leash sooner than he did.


RM: Which is more important to the Mavs’ success in this series: Shawn Marion’s (and perhaps DeShawn Stevenson’s) defense against Manu Ginobili, or Brendan Haywood and Erick Dampier’s defense against Tim Duncan?

Zac Crain: Whomever defends Manu. His points (and overall court game) is way more important to the Spurs’ confidence. They feed off him. The fans feed off of him. And the reverse is true: he can get right inside the heads of the Mavs and their fans.

Mark Followill: Again, great question. Winning basketball is best played from the inside out leading me to want to answer Dampier/Haywood vs. Duncan. However I’ve heard Rick Carlisle say the worst thing that can to happen to your defense is to be beaten by dribble penetration. So since Ginobili can do that among his myriad of other skills and the intangibles he brings to the floor as a wily veteran I’ll say it’s Marion et al against Ginobili.

Jeff ‘Skin’ Wade: Slowing down Manu ten times out of ten. He’s been unbelievable.  He’s also far and away the single biggest reason why I seem to fear the Spurs more than anyone else I’ve talked to about it. If Matrix can keep Ginobili from going nuts then I think he’ll be the MVP of the series. But as Marion will tell you, a dude will get his if he gets enough shot attempts. If Ginobil needs a bunch of shot attempts to get his, that’ll be counter-productive to what SA wants to do and I’m sure Marion will have been a big part of that.

Tim MacMahon: Matrix vs. Manu. Duncan had three 25-point games in last season’s series, all of which came in losing efforts. The Spurs took off down the stretch this season when Ginobili got in a groove.

David Lord
: I think Ginobili can turn the series, so give the biggest pep pills to Marion and Stevenson, don’t overlook Butler, and don’t be surprised if Kidd gets the assignment on some key possessions. I don’t think the Spurs have the ability to grind out victories in this series but instead will have to win with flashes of greatness, and these days I think Ginobili has more potential to do the unexpected.

Art Garcia
: Matrix hands down. Manu is balling, so the Mavs need Marion’s length and savvy. Remember, Manu didn’t play in the series last year, so the Mavs didn’t have this issue. I expect El Contusion to be the focus of Dallas’ D.

Mike Fisher
: The Mavs are in many ways built to contend with the Spurs – which means, “build to contend with Duncan.’’ They’ve done it with Damp/Diop and they ought to be able to do it with Damp/Big Wood. (“Contend with’’ being different than “being superior to,’’ of course.)

Duncan really labors up and down the floor these days, that requisite knee brace a tell-tale sign.

But Manu? He’s the guy who can go off with consistency, he’s the only guy on the Spurs right now who can effectively create his own show, and he’s Job One for Marion … in a sense, Marion’s acquisition was “built to contend with the Spurs,’’ too – or, at least, one Spur.

Gina Miller
: The defense on Ginobili.  Duncan is still Duncan, despite what I feel, is in a bit of a decline.  He can drop 20 & 10 but that’s almost a given.  Ginobili has been so strong from San Antonio recently and such a part of their late-season surge this year that he’s the one the Mavs need to focus on containing.

Jeff Caplan: Manu, Manu, Manu. Duncan is going to get his. We know that. But, Manu is dynamic. He can get to the rim and the free throw line, he’s draining the 3 and making everyone around him better. There are few guys that can twist and turn and contort and do the things he does with his body and convert at the bucket. The guy is totally confident and ridiculously dangerous. Shawn Marion has his work cut out for him on the defensive end, but Marion also makes a good point: you’ve got to make Ginobili sweat on the defensive end. That responsibility likely falls with Caron Butler.


RM: San Antonio has never really been able to match up with Dirk, and this season has, more or less, been the same (28.8 PPG and 8.5 RPG in four games vs. SA this season). Which Spur defender has the best chance of making Nowitzki’s life difficult?

Zac Crain: No one. It’s true. He can only stop himself. Bruce Bowen had a decent run, but even he fell off. Maybe, maybe, Antonio McDyess, but I only see that working for short stretches, if at all. Best bet? Making Dirk work on D.

Mark Followill: The best defenders historically against Dirk has been the tall, mobile defenders like Lamar Odom or back in the day Sheed. The other style of defense that has had some success against him is to use a SG/SF type who is quick and can crowd Dirk and get up under his arms. Since the Spurs definitely don’t have the former, the closest player the Spurs have to the latter and who has a rep as a defender would be someone like Keith Bogans so perhaps Pop could try to use him in a Bowen like capacity. While you noted the number of points per game that Dirk scored against the Spurs this year he only shot 40.4% against them. The more likely way to replicate that is not by the play of a single defender but by running multiple defenders at him as the Spurs have often done recently.

Jeff ‘Skin’ Wade: They don’t have the type of rangy athlete most known for giving Dirk fits, though some of that has been debunked over the years by the way Dallas moves him around depending on the match-up.  The best example I can give you within the course of one game is how differently they utilize Dirk when he’s checked by Mehmet Okur versus when he’s covered by Andrei Kirilenko.  For all the credit Stephen Jackson has received for “stopping” Dirk, nobody seems to recall that in every time he’s defended Dirk since that dreadful series, #41 has just murdered him in the post.  Problem is Dirk doesn’t pass that well out of the post on double teams.  I’d say it depends on how the game is officiated. If it’s “no autopsy, no foul” vibe, then I think it’s Bonner. If they’re going to call actual fouls they way they’re supposed to, then I’d say McDyess is best-equipped and Bonner will foul out in short order. But I’d say Dirk is far and away San Antonio’s biggest worry as they don’t have the right guys to slow him.

Tim MacMahon: Can I go with Gregg Popovich? The Spurs will need some X’s and O’s wizardry to keep Dirk down. If I have to pick a player, it’s Tim Duncan, but that’s asking a lot of an aging star who has had knee problems

David Lord: Frankly, none whatsoever. The Spurs simply have no defender that can do much to match up with Dirk. If I’m Pop, I’m resigned to the fact that Dirk will get his no matter what I do, and instead try to focus on keeping players like Butler, Marion, Terry and Kidd held completely in check.

Art Garcia: Not sure if that guys exists with Bruce Bowen gone. McDyess may be the early call since he’s clearly more comfortable away from the basket than Duncan. The Spurs’ plan may be to double Dirk and force someone else to beat them.

Mike Fisher: Pop has tried to double-team The UberMan at times in the past, and as a reward, the other weapons – and they are substantial – has jumped up to beat him … while Dirk still gets his 30 points. Last year that meant J-Ho and Barea; this year it can mean Caron, Jet, Kidd, Marion … weapons!

San Antonio will change it up, but I think there is logic to assigning one guy to Dirk (it’s often been that Bonner Character) and conceding him his points … and then hoping that Dallas’ other weaponry is contained.

Gina Miller: Dirk will see a combination of defenders but McDyess and Bonner will give him the most hell, in my opinion.

Jeff Caplan: None. It will take a gang effort and Popovich will probably bring it. Dirk is preparing for it (he calls Popovich a defensive genius). The one stat not listed next to his 28.8 ppg is his 40.4 percent shooting against the Spurs this season, Dirk’s worst perecentage against Western Conference teams. Antonio McDyess and Matt Bonner get the official tag as Dirk defenders, but the Spurs will bring double teams. The big key for the Mavs is how well Jason Kidd shoots the 3-ball now (and I still have to wipe my eyes every time he hits one, which is like every time). If Dirk can pass out of the double team effectively and Kidd continues his 40 percent thing from the arc, the Mavs are in good shape.


RM: Describe this series in one word.

Zac Crain: Inevitable.

Mark Followill: Bitterness.

Jeff ‘Skin’ Wade: Draining.

Tim MacMahon
: Again.

David Lord: Desperation.

Art Garcia
: Familiar.

Mike Fisher: “Two-seed.’’ This is why they played 82. To establish an advantage. Dallas has done that by achieving the No. 2 seed – which I argue is the third-greatest team accomplishment in the NBA this year.

Gina Mille
r: Rugged.

Jeff Caplan: Unpredictable.


RM: Prediction time: who ya got?

Zac Crain: Mavs in six. Duncan can’t turn it on like he used to for a full series, Parker is still out of sync, and Manu can win a game or two by himself, but not a series.

Mark Followill
: Mavs in 7.

Jeff ‘Skin’ Wade: I think Dallas in six and I think all the games will be close.

Tim MacMahon
: Mavs in six.

David Lord: Dallas in 6.

Art Garcia: As I wrote in my NBA.com series preview, I’m expecting a return to the rivalry’s bitter roots … and the Mavs in six.

Mike Fisher: Mavs in six. Last year, the Mavs were a No. 6 seed and the Spurs were a No. 3 … and the Mavs cruised. This year, San Antonio is calling itself “improved’’ yet drops to a No. 7 seed, while the 10X50 Mavs move up to No. 2.

Dallas has moved up … and in six games, will move on.

Gina Miller: Mavs in 6.  They clinch in San Antonio for the 2nd straight postseason.

Jeff Caplan: Mavs in 7.

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A huge thank you to everyone for being kind enough to participate, and be sure to visit their respective sites and Twitter feeds for more of their thoughts on the Mavs.

The Official Two Man Game Official Dallas Mavericks Versus San Antonio Spurs Official Playoff Preview for the Official 2009-2010 Official Post-Season

Posted by Rob Mahoney on April 16, 2010 under Commentary, Previews | 11 Comments to Read

It’s a date: the Mavs savor the thought of playing the Spurs, and the Spurs apparently aren’t too intimidated by the Mavs. That much was certain based on how each coach chose to play the regular season’s final game, and now everyone gets what they want.

Photo by Danny Bollinger/NBAE via Getty Images.

This series is going to be excellent. I’m talking 2006 Western Conference semifinals excellent. It’s anyone’s guess as to whether or not this series is going to go the distance, but based on how Dallas and San Antonio match up, I’d honestly be shocked if there was a single blowout. We’re looking at at least six games of stellar, well-executed, well-coached, and entertaining basketball.

Let me get this out of the way early: if you’re a Mavs fan and you think this series is going to be a cakewalk, you’re sadly mistaken. Many a MFFL fancied this match-up over a series with the Thunder, (healthy) Blazers, or Suns, but a lot of that is familiarity. The Spurs are so familiar to Mavs fans because of their status in the Southwest division, their location, and their frequent playoff battles with Dallas. So in this case, I think the fans (and possibly the Mavs) prefer the devil they know…even if they don’t know him all that well.

The Spurs that we’ve saw in last season’s playoffs barely resembles this model, largely because a healthy Manu Ginobili is capable of making an MVP-level impact. He’s certainly one of the top shooting guards in the game, and not only has he been out of his element a bit over the last few seasons, but he skipped last year’s playoff series with Dallas entirely due to injury. As a result, the Mavs won in 5 and the games honestly weren’t as competitive as precedent would have predicted. Dallas’ 2006 win over San Antonio was a huge step in the evolution of the rivalry, but the 2009 series between the two teams had a completely different dynamic. Even though both series fell well short of the Spurs usual title aspirations, the 2009 playoffs brought something new to San Antonio: shame. They can excuse away the loss with Manu’s absence, but never before had the Spurs been so thoroughly embarrassed by the Mavs.

Photo by Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images.

The storylines from San Antonio are primarily concerning those two elements: Manu’s renaissance and the Spurs’ revenge. Understandably so, as Ginobili should be both feared and respected, and the same should go for this entire San Antonio team. They’re quite formidable. If the Mavs’ offensive and defensive ratings for the season are a bit misleading due to the trade and — Dallas hopes — a legitimate mini-surge to close the regular season, the the Spurs’ are even more so. Tony Parker missed 26 games this season due to injury, and while he isn’t quite up to his 2008-2009 scoring level, he looked more than capable against the Mavs in the regular season finale.

That’s significant. If Parker is as ready as he seems, he could end up causing a lot of match-up problems for the Mavs alongside Ginobili. If it’s just Manu doing considerable damage, then the Mavs are well-equipped to contain him. Shawn Marion’s perimeter defense has been superb this year, particularly against elite opponents. Ginobili certainly qualifies. Caron Butler also has shown himself to be an aggressive defensive alternative for highly productive wings as well, with perhaps his keynote performance coming just five games ago against Brandon Roy. Like Ginobili, Roy is an atypical cover; he’s not a 2 that’s reliant on incredible athleticism, and his strength lies in his ability to change speeds and confuse defenders. I wouldn’t say that Ginobili is an extremely similar player, but he and Roy are similar in their deviance from the 2-guard norm. That doesn’t prove that Butler is a great option for defending Manu, but it does at least show that Caron can defend unconventional off guards. Beyond that, Jason Kidd is terrific defender at the two, and DeShawn Stevenson has done fine defensive work over the last two weeks.

Unfortunately, it’s never quite as simple as locking in one defender on one opposing player and calling it a day. The Mavs’ general defensive strategy against teams such as the Spurs is to overload on the initiator of the offense, which in this case would be Manu. Even if Ginobili has technically been listed at the two, the team is in his hands when he shares the floor with George Hill. It’s not an issue of who plays what position but who takes on what roles, and Ginobili’s spot in the Parker-less Spurs’ offense is to initiate. He’s the one triggering plays and he’s the one making entry passes. As a response, not only does Dallas typically cover such a threat with a long-armed, athletic wing defender, but they throw all kinds of pressure at them. You’ll see the Mavs completely blitz the ball-handler on the pick-and-roll. You’ll see them trap the initiator as soon as he crosses half-court with the ball. You’ll see double teams coming from all over the place at various times, just to throw a stud like Manu off his game. The price of that is leaving Brendan Haywood or Erick Dampier to their own devices against Tim Duncan, but Rick Carlisle and the Mavs’ coaching staff have deemed that an acceptable risk.

Photo by Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images.

That strategy works pretty well, but if Tony Parker is as healthy and dominant as he’s capable of being? Trouble. Big trouble. Parker is the one player on the Spurs that the Mavs don’t have a good match-up for. Should Tony start feeling like his former self, it’s likely that Dallas would be forced to go with speed without considerable defensive skill (J.J. Barea, Rodrigue Beaubois) or size without considerable speed (Butler, Marion, Stevenson). Both could work, as J.J. showed in spots in last season’s playoffs, but if you’re Rick Carlisle, do you feel particularly great about those players trying to handcuff a fully-effective Tony Parker?

Brendan Haywood and Erick Dampier are thus far more useful than simply acting as the large bodies between Tim Duncan and the basket. Don’t get me wrong, their post defense is still important. Really important. But should Parker start revving up, Haywood and Damp’s ability to protect the rim will be fairly essential. Neither has to be Dwight Howard, but having some kind of deterrent in the middle will be Dallas’ best shot at curtailing Tony’s production.

Then again, Tony Parker hasn’t been himself this season. He isn’t playing like the player that torched the Mavs a year ago, and even if he is, Dallas is a better team than they were then. The Mavs aren’t a great team, don’t get me wrong. I still stand firmly committed to the fact that this team has, on the whole, played mediocre basketball, regardless of whether you want to look at their season-long or simply post-deadline performance. But Dallas knows and matches-up with San Antonio so well, that the only thing putting the Spurs way over the top is a suddenly resurgent Parker.

Photo by Danny Bollinger/NBAE via Getty Images.

Otherwise, we’ve pretty much got a coin flip on our hands. No one on the Spurs’ roster can really cover Dirk, and he’s not going to be flummoxed by Popovich’s defensive pressure. Tim Duncan will likely be prevented from completely dominating, though he’ll still be very productive. Jason Kidd will hit big spot-up threes and run the offense expertly, but the Spurs defense will be ready and waiting. Jason Terry and Caron Butler can combine to eclipse Manu Ginobili’s scoring, Shawn Marion can cancel out Richard Jefferson’s production, and the Mavs’ bench offers more versatility than the Spurs’. Rick Carlisle is an excellent coach, but Gregg Popovich is an all-time great coach. It’s point-counterpoint all the way up and down the rosters, and while that’s not likely to let MFFLs sleep easy over the next few weeks, it’s absolutely brilliant for this series’ entertainment value.

The only conclusive fact that anyone should have to say about this series is that it’s going to be close. If you’re resolved that either team should win outright, you’re probably wrong. Every game will be a battle, but I’ll take Dallas in seven. I’m picking the Mavs because I think Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry are in a great offensive rhythm right now, and I trust in the Mavs’ ability to contain Manu Ginobili. I think home court advantage matters, and a playoff atmosphere should remedy Dallas’ woes at home. I don’t trust Tony Parker’s ability to dominate the series like he did a year ago, but I do trust the balance of the Mavs’ offense. As good as George Hill and DeJuan Blair are, I don’t think they’re going to step out of themselves to become x-factors. This Dallas team is in a good place right now, is brimming with confidence, and knows they can beat the Spurs.

All that’s left is for them to go out and do it.

Heard It Through The Grapevine

Posted by admin on April 15, 2010 under xOther | 5 Comments to Read

  • The Spurs hope George Hill will be ready for the first round series vs. the Mavericks, and Jesse Blanchard of 48 Minutes of Hell breaks down why he’s the key to the series for the Spurs, and Gregg Popovich’s favorite player.
  • While watching the game last night, I, like many of you, started wondering why Marion shoots so many floaters around the basket, even though it seems like he never makes them. I looked up his At-Rim FG% at HoopData, and surprisingly, he’s at 62%, 1% higher than the league average. I’m still of the opinion that he needs to lay off that floater.
  • Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas writes about the respect the Mavs have for this Spurs team: “The Mavs simply have too much respect for Gregg Popovich’s team to get their britches in a bunch about Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili taking off Game 82. Plus, the Mavs are much more concerned about preparing for Game 1. “
  • Angry Trey shared this video with us Mavs fans, from the 16th President of the United States
  • And in case you were wondering, my first round predictions (in the West) are Lakers in 6, Jazz in 5, Suns in 6 and Mavs in 6…..which isn’t very brave of me at all.

Grapevine cont’d, by Mahoney:

  • Rick Carlisle has been named the Western Conference Coach of the Month according to a release from the team. It’s the first time a Mavs coach has won the award since Avery Johnson nabbed it in February of 2007.
  • From Adrian Wojnarowski (@WojYahooNBA) on Twitter: “Ed Stefanski interviewed Dwane Casey twice last year and source close to Sixers GM says ‘He loved him.’ Philly may have to move fast should it want to hire Casey this time, because sources say he’s moved to top of Clippers search. OKC almost hired Casey over PJ Carlesimo.”
  • Shawn Marion manages to crack out the “that’s what’s up” “it’s on” and “it is what it is” trinity. Not in one scrum, but one after another in a single sentence.
  • Yahoo’s John Ludden has an excellent piece in Manu Ginobili: “Looking back, maybe it was foolish to question him. Through his eight years in San Antonio, Ginobili had lifted the Spurs through all those end-of-game, pressure-cooker moments. Resurrecting himself might have been his greatest comeback yet. It took five months, but he has again made believers of them all, and that explains more than anything why the Spurs decided to give him a contract extension that will pay nearly $40 million over the next three years. When Ginobili’s healthy, when he’s playing as he has over the past couple months, isn’t anything possible?”

Dallas Mavericks 96, San Antonio Spurs 89

Posted by Rob Mahoney on under Recaps | Read the First Comment

Photo by Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images.

Box ScorePlay-By-PlayShot Chart — GameFlow

If you want a happy ending, that depends, of course, on where you stop your story.
-Orson Welles

It’s over. The ending wasn’t pretty nor did it provide much in the way of closure, but the Mavs have played out the regular season to its less than thrilling conclusion. Dallas won in the least glamorous way imaginable: they beat a Manu and Duncan-less Spurs team to avoid any significant questions about a final-game meltdown, but failed to rest their starters or build upon the last week’s success.

Not much to take away from this 48 minutes either way. Neither the Spurs nor the Mavs are as bad as they looked, and neither pulled out all the stops. For Dallas, it was about winning with the least amount of effort possible, which was something of a success (only 28 minutes for Jason Kidd) but also a bit of a failure (fairly competitive late into the fourth quarter). Ultimately, the contest itself mattered for little other than its result. Both sides got what they wanted, as evidenced by Gregg Popovich folding before the first round of betting and Rich Carlisle seeing the game out until the very end.

Still, due to the specific circumstances facing both teams, it’s safe to say that last night’s events were rather unique. Among the things you shouldn’t count on seeing on a regular basis during the Mavs’ series against the Spurs:

  • The obvious: Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan did not play. I’d suspect Pop might alter that strategy for the playoffs.
  • Dirk Nowitzki (19 points, 8-20 FG, five rebounds, five assists) will not be so wide open. Dirk’s poor shooting percentage certainly wasn’t because the Spurs player particularly good defense, and Nowitzki had clean look after clean look from mid-range. He just couldn’t convert, which is another thing I wouldn’t count on.
  • DeJuan Blair finished with 27 and 23 in 37 minutes.
  • The Spurs shot 9.1% from three-point range. San Antonio is the eighth best three-point shooting team in the league, and they averaged 36.2% for the season.
  • Between them, the Mavs and Spurs averaged 95.4 offensive efficiency. That’s nearly 12 full points below their combined season average, and marked an especially dismal night that I’m sure both teams would like to forget.
  • George Hill played just five minutes. After hitting a layup in the first quarter, Hill stepped on a cameraman sitting baseline and tweaked his ankle. Hill left the game, and did not return. Count on him to be healthy by the time Game 1 rolls around on Sunday night, or at least healthy enough to play more than five minutes. As such, Garrett Temple (14 points, three assists), who filled in for Hill after he headed to the locker room, won’t be as significant of a player once the games start to carry serious weight.
  • Jason Kidd (18 points, 5-12 FG, three assists, seven rebounds ) had to carry the Mavs with his scoring at times. With a more typical rotation in place and hopefully more interested teammates, that shouldn’t be the case come this weekend.
  • Neither team looked particularly motivated to really come out and play. For the Spurs, it was as simple as pulling a few starters and mailing in the night. The Mavs were definitely thrown by the move, and were thrown into a funk as a result. This is hardly the first time Dallas has come out flat against a team missing its star players, but what we’ve learned in the past is that games like these are rarely representative of either team’s level of effort or execution under slightly more normal circumstances.

Heard It Through the Grapevine

Posted by Rob Mahoney on January 20, 2010 under xOther | 2 Comments to Read

  • The Mavs have faced some pretty stiff competition this season, as the entire Western Conference has seemingly stepped up its game. But Dallas is still second in the conference standings, and the rest of the regular season schedule could smile on the Mavs. Via the excellent @mavstats (if you’re not following mavsstats on Twitter or RSS, do so immediately): “The Mavs have the weakest remaining schedule of any West team at .478 (3rd weakest in NBA). The hardest? Denver at .539.”
  • Kris Humphries is off to a hell of a start in New Jersey. After three games as a Net (which is an absurdly small sample size), he’s averaging 15 PPG (.517 FG%) and 7.7 RPG. Translate his numbers into their per-minute values, and it gets even more impressive: 22.8 points per 36 minutes and 11.7 rebounds per 36 minutes. That’s a PER of 26.1. I wouldn’t expect Hump’s numbers to be quite so gaudy at the end of the season, but still. Wow.
  • Josh Howard was anything but impressive offensively Monday night, but Rick Carlisle noted his second half defense against the Celtics. Which reminds me of something I forgot to mention in the recap: Ray Allen had a tidy 21 points on 9-15 shooting, but both Josh Howard and Jason Terry did a terrific job of chasing him around screens. Having to guard the likes of Allen (or Detroit’s Rip Hamilton) is not only unenviable, but physically draining. It takes incredible endurance to not only chase Ray, but fight through screen after screen, and both Josh and JET refused to be deterred.
  • Brendan Jackson of Celtics Hub: “These are mostly guys who fall under the “match up nightmare for any team” and “gonna get his” categories.  Still, the C’s have a huge disadvantage when trying to defend more mobile power forwards like Dirk, Durant, and Stoudemire.  I don’t even see this changing much when KG gets back.”
  • I like John Hollinger, but in his choices for All-Star starters, he jumps the shark a bit by naming Tim Duncan the starting power forward and Zach Randolph the starting center. Here’s his explanation: “How good has Duncan been? He leads all Western Conference big men in estimated wins added despite playing only 32 minutes a game and sitting out three games. It’s just unfortunate that he’s on the ballot at power forward, because we could have used Duncan as the starting center and listed Dirk Nowitzki (who likely will beat out Duncan in the fan voting) as a starter at forward. Instead we have to do this…” No problem whatsoever with Duncan getting a nod, but Hollinger’s positional reasoning is confusing at best, impossible at worst. He says that it’s a shame that Duncan is on the ballot as a forward, because otherwise he could have put Dirk at forward and Duncan at center. Instead, he selects Duncan at forward, and then anoints Zach Randolph, who is very obviously a power forward, as the center. Right.
  • Shawn Marion pins ball movement as the key to the Mavs’ success, and he’s certainly not wrong. Sometimes it’s all about the basics.
  • Rasheed Wallace unhappy with the officiating? Nawwww.

Dallas Mavericks 112, San Antonio Spurs 103: Abridged

Posted by Rob Mahoney on January 9, 2010 under Recaps | Read the First Comment

Photo by AP.

Box ScorePlay-By-PlayShot ChartGameFlow

TeamPaceOff. Eff.eFG%FT/FGORB%TOr
Dallas93.0120.453.422.530.88.6
San Antonio110.857.227.615.612.9

How long should you try? Until.
-Jim Rohn

  • I don’t know how you could possibly look over the last decade of Mavericks basketball and not find Mavs-Spurs as the epic, enduring narrative. The Mavs have had plenty of individual heartbreaks, but no other opponent has provided the shear number of intriguing contests, in the playoffs and otherwise. There are almost too many good games between the two, and last night was no exception.
  • The defensive key against San Antonio is to take away the threes from the wing and the corner. When healthy, Tim Duncan (31 points, 12-19 FG, 12 rebounds, five assists) is going to get his, just as he did against Erick Dampier and Drew Gooden. But if the Mavs can prevent Tony Parker from walking to the rim and put some pressure on the Spurs’ shooters, they’re infinitely beatable. San Antonio outscored Dallas 26-19 in the third quarter behind 3-4 shooting from beyond the arc. But in the fourth quarter, when the Mavs’ offense exploded for for 42 and held the Spurs to just 23, the Spurs shot just 1-5. It’s no coincidence.
  • On that note, Jason Kidd may be one of the best close-out artists in the league. He’s not a threat to block many shots, but he does a great job closing out on shooters without fouling and without sacrificing his defensive position. Somehow, Kidd is still in the picture even after a mad scramble to the perimeter, and it’s those subtle defensive maneuvers that make Jason a completely underrated defender at this stage of his career.
  • Rodrigue Beaubois actually got some burn in the third quarter opposite Tony Parker. It took Roddy a few possessions to get in his groove defensively, but he did a great job of preventing TP from getting where he wanted and needed to go. Also some great pick-and-roll coverage by Roddy and the Maverick bigs over that stretch, which is kind of important against a combination like Duncan-Parker. Beaubois also showed some intermediate touch, nailing a midrange jumper and a floater in the lane.
  • Jason Terry (21 points, 7-13 FG, eight assists, two steals) had an absolutely incredible game, and showed shades of villainy. One of the things I’ve never understood about the Mavs-Spurs rivalry is complete hatred of Jason Terry on the San Antonio side of the fence, but last night brought some clarity. After diving for a loose ball but losing it to George Hill, JET stuck out his leg to trip Hill for both utilitarian and vindictive reasons. Then, for good measure, he stood up to jaw with Hill before the two had to be separated. Terry hits big shots, isn’t shy about celebrating, and jaws with the best of them. Part of being good is being hated, and Terry is certainly that.
  • Drew Gooden’s greatest asset as a Mav is his offensive rebounding (he had four last night). The scoring is nice, obviously, but Drew needs to continue to put in work on the offensive glass and get the Mavs more and more scoring opportunities. It’s the perfect way for Dallas to compensate for their low number of forced turnovers, which has long been a Maverick weakness (though they’re currently 17th in the league in opponent’s turnover percentage, which isn’t terrible).
  • Oh, and by the way, the Mavs completely demolished the Spurs in the fourth quarter behind huge performances from JET, Dirk (26 points, 10-28 FG, five rebounds), and oddly enough, Erick Dampier (14 points, 6-6 FG, five boards). Terry (11, four assists), Nowitzki (16, two blocks), and Dampier (eight) combined for 35 of the Mavs’ 42 fourth quarter points, and dismantled the San Antonio D with a barrage of clutch threes (Dirk, JET, and yes, Damp) and back-breaking buckets. Tremendous quarter and game for those three, who put nails in the coffin, possession by possession.

Heard It Through the Grapevine

Posted by Rob Mahoney on December 31, 2009 under xOther | Be the First to Comment

  • Your Dallas Mavericks are the biggest underachievers of the decade. Not exactly the kind of accolade you’d like, but the facts speak for themselves in this case: A decade of good teams and opportunities have brought back little in terms of hardware.
  • On a similar note, John Hollinger named the Mavs the best team of the decade to not win a championship. Yup. Shawn Marion was also dubbed the second most underrated player of the 2000s.
  • Kevin Pelton ranked the 2005-2006 Mavs the 16th best team of the decade, as determined primarily by point differential: “Take away the NBA Finals and this is your best runner-up of the decade. Actually, take away the last three games and one quarter of the Finals and this is one of the best teams of the decade. For that matter, take away Bennett Salvatore and … never mind.”
  • Go ahead and add a sore hamstring to Josh Howard’s list of lingering injuries.
  • I spend a lot of time defending Erick Dampier, but this time, he’s gone and done something (or rather, said something) so completely nonsensical that I wouldn’t even think to touch it. Carl Landry is all kinds of tough.
  • Whoops.
  • There’s a popular notion that the ‘feeling out’ process between a team and its coach is critical to establishing a functional relationship. That may be true, but Rick Carlisle is firmly opposed to the next step in the process, in which the players become a bit too comfortable.
  • Mavs’ second round pick Nick Calathes talked to HoopsTV about playing in Greece, his college experience at Florida, and of particular interest to us, his future with the Mavs: “I talked to coach Carlisle since I’ve been here and I have talked to Mark Cuban. I was going to play in the summer league (Las Vegas), but FIBA made a rule saying that I couldn’t. So I have stayed in close contact with them throughout the year. I think Dallas could be a great fit for me, maybe in the future, but right now I am focused only on Panathinaikos and hopefully we can win the Euroleague championship again this year and we’ll go from there.”
  • ‘Where are they Now?’, featuring Tariq Abdul-Wahad and Mo Ager.
  • An unexpected weapon in the offense this season: the Jason Kidd-Erick Dampier pick-and-roll. The two biggest surprises in Erick Dampier’s game have been his hands and his quickness going up with the ball, both of which are absolutely critical to the PnR’s success.
  • Just in case you forgot, the Mavs don’t shoot threes all that well, and don’t score at the rim. Two-point jump shots are the bread and butter of the Dallas offense, and while that doesn’t translate to elite offensive efficiency (or hasn’t…YET), it is what it is. The Mavs are some of the best in the biz at what they do. It just so happens that what they do isn’t the most efficient way to but a ball through a hoop.
  • Matt Carroll is the master of his domain. Unfortunately, that domain begins and ends with the confines of the practice facility.
  • The player of the decade isn’t Dirk Nowitzki, and it’s not Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal, or Kevin Garnett, either. Tim Duncan is the one true king of the 2000s, and his glory is indisputable. Mavs fans have had the fortune and misfortune to see Duncan go to work on many occasions, and while that’s hardly a good thing for Dallas, it’s a great thing for fans of the game. Hail, hail, Tim Duncan.
  • If this year’s All-Stars were determined by advance statistics (adjust plus-minus, and PER, specifically), then…well, Dirk would still be a starter. Some of the other selections may surprise you, though.
  • Nope.

Moving Pictures: Dirk, Transcendent

Posted by Rob Mahoney on November 19, 2009 under Video | 14 Comments to Read

There are huge Maverick performances, and then there are huge Maverick performances against the Spurs. Dirk Nowitzki has made a habit of both, and on Wednesday night, he reminded the Spurs, their fans, and the entire league that anyone who expects this Mavs team to roll over and die is sorely mistaken. In this installment of Moving Pictures, we’ll briefly discuss the nature of the Mavs-Spurs rivalry before letting Dirk’s game do the talking.

Dallas Mavericks 99, San Antonio Spurs 94

Posted by Rob Mahoney on under Recaps | 5 Comments to Read

Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images.

Box ScorePlay-By-PlayShot ChartGameFlow

TeamPaceOff. Eff.eFG%FT/FGORB%TOr
San Antonio86.997.948.124.420.018.0
Dallas103.141.516.028.85.2

Winning isn’t everything, but the will to win is everything.
-Vince Lombardi

When I watch this season’s Mavs, I feel like I’m watching something special. The play isn’t always sterling and the team is hardly immortal, but their games (and particularly their wins) have a certain sublime quality that begs watching. It’s not so much a demand as it is a gentle nudge, a reminder to sit up and pay attention. And if the Mavs didn’t have everyone’s attention after their wins againt the Lakers and Jazz, they should definitely have it after pulling out two close wins over the Bucks and as of last night, the Spurs.

Both teams looked and played like they’d been decimated by injuries, and rightfully so. Shawn Marion, Josh Howard, and Erick Dampier sat out for Dallas, and Manu Ginobili joined Tony Parker among the wounded after straining his left groin early in the first quarter. Both teams looked completely out of sync offensively in the first half, with bad shot selection being the Mavs’ vice of choice and turnovers the Spurs’ poison. But the Spurs and the Mavs were careful not to lose too much ground, relying on energy and quickness to outwit and outwork one another. While those early offensive struggles didn’t offer much in the way of a prelude, they still dictated the theme of things to come: as the Mavs do, so do the Spurs, and as the Spurs do, so do the Mavs. It was as if both teams were connected by a string, and as soon as one began to rise, the other inevitably followed suit.

The second half was a welcome change of pace. Drew Gooden (17 points on 8-13 shooting, 11 rebounds, three blocks, one steal, and just one turnover) had welcomed the challenge of defending Tim Duncan with open arms, and the third quarter glorified his offense to the same level as his hard-working defense. There must have been something on Gooden’s bulletin board, because I’ve never seen him play with such inspiration or determination, especially not in a Maverick uniform. On a nightly basis, I expect Drew to be solid. But Gooden took that expectation and crushed it in his bare hands, stood against Duncan and lived to tell about it, and then sent me a very angry letter for merely expecting competence. Drew was near every loose ball or potential rebound, his defensive fundamentals were sound (and held Duncan to 22 points on 22 shots), and he didn’t try to force his way on offense. The Mavs don’t even sniff the win without Gooden’s contributions.

Dirk Nowtizki did more than his fare share during the third, but really made the game his in the fourth and fifth frames. Gregg Popovich’s decision to through primarily one-on-one coverage at Dirk was misguided if not completely flawed, and to make matters worse, Matt Bonner drew the primary responsibility despite the vastly superior defense of Antonio McDyess. I’ve been very impressed with McDyess’ defense on Dirk in two games this season, as Dice has both the physical (strength and length) and mental attributes (preparation, understanding of Dirk’s tendencies) to cause Nowitzki some problems. But Pop opted for Bonner, a decision which resulted in more open looks than you could count on your hands and a few trips to the line to boot. With Jason Terry (13 points, 4-19 FG), the Spur-Killer, struggling to find his shot, Dirk decided that tonight would be one of those nights. He unleashed a flurry of picturesque jumpers over the outstretched hands of Bonner, Duncan, McDyess, and anyone foolish enough to get in his way. And to top it all off, Dirk was far more than a stop-gap defensively after Drew Gooden fouled out late in the fourth. Dirk bodied up Duncan and made every look in the post a difficult one. The he ran the court, made a few and ones, dropped a 3-point bomb on Spurs’ comeback hopes, and called it a day.

The Mavs were decimated in terms of 3-point percentage, made less of their shots overall, were outrebounded, attempted less free throws, and were out assisted. But the Spurs committed 18 turnovers to the Mavericks’ five. That’s where the Spurs missed the steady hands of Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, and that’s where Dirk Nowitzki and Drew Gooden were able to capitalize.

Closing thoughts:

  • Hoorah for the point guards! Jason Kidd again played effectively despite his inability to score (8 assists, 11 rebounds, 4 steals), Rodrigue Beaubois proved that he can do wrong but still shot 50% from the field and scored 8, and J.J. Barea had another effective game against San Antonio with 9 points and 3 assists, not to mention a +14 in terms of on-court team production.
  • If near-dunks were pennies, the Mavs would be a few cents richer today. Kris Humphries’ ‘almost poster’ of Tim Duncan would have been one for the ages, and Tim Thomas would have won over the fan base quickly had his dunk gone through. But alas, some things just aren’t meant to be.

GOLD STAR OF THE NIGHT: The Gold Star of the Night goes to Drew Gooden. Dirk gets plenty of love, but Gooden’s terrific defensive performance earns him a sticker. I called, and Gooden answered, and I couldn’t be happier.

ROUND 2. FIGHT!!1!!!!!1!!

Posted by Rob Mahoney on November 18, 2009 under xOther | 2 Comments to Read

Sometimes it’s best to let these things speak for themselves.

The world’s largest hat-tip to Matt Moore, who found the whole set on Flickr.