This has been an incredibly turbulent season for the Mavericks from a player personnel standpoint. They faced their first 27 games without Dirk Nowtizki, and with just five other returning players on the roster. An NBA roster has 15 slots, but the Mavericks have already used 19 different players this season, not including Delonte West — with whom the Mavericks parted ways before the season began. Each week it seems there is a new addition to be welcomed to the fold, bringing with them the warm tidings of hope.
Since he took over in Dallas, Rick Carlisle has proved repeatedly that managing personnel is one of his greatest coaching strengths. He has been innovative and progressive in managing his lineups and always seems to pull the most from each of his players. This season however, putting the pieces together has been a constant challenge. No matter how he arranges them, they don’t seem to fit together quite as uniformly as they have in the past, and the image never becomes totally clear. I’m personally of the opinion that it’s because these pieces don’t all come from the same puzzle, and that no matter what five-man unit Carlisle runs out onto the floor, some part of it will be a hasty Spackle job trying to hold back the rising tide of flood waters. However, I thought it might be interesting to look at the different lineup foundations he’s tried by examining his success (and lack thereof) with various two-man combinations.
The visualization below lets you look at all the different two-man combinations the Mavericks have used for at least 100 minutes this season. Unfortunately, to create all the combinations I had to place several players on both axes, which can make for a slightly confusing view. The size of each square represents the number of minutes that pairing played. The color represents that pairing’s Net Rating, or point differential per 100 possessions. If you hover over any of the squares you can also see that combination’s Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating. The filters below let you include or eliminate pairings based on any of those variables.
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The three least efficient areas to shoot from are inside the paint (but not in the restricted area), from mid-range and straight ahead three-pointers. Altogether, 63.7% of this lineup’s shot attempts come from those three areas. Going back to my shot-selection metric from two weeks ago, the shot selection of this lineup gives them an XPPS of 0.988, where the league average is 1.047. They feature above-average mid-range shooters, but are using that weapon to a fault. Above-average ability isn’t manifesting in above-average success, and their Actual Points Per Shot is an even lower 0.936. From an outsider’s perspective, this group seems like they may be fundamentally incompatible offensively, even with Nowitzki’s eventual improvement taken into account.
Although you never like to see anyone injured, Kaman’s concussion offers the possibility for an interesting experiment. Kaman has had a solid individual season putting up 18.8 points per 36 minutes, the second highest of his career, on a TS% of 53.3, his highest since 2008-2009. However, his rebound percentage is the lowest since his rookie season and the Mavericks have generally struggled when he’s on the floor. Dallas’ defense is 3.6 points worse per 100 possessions with Kaman in the mix, a margin that’s ultimately not all that surprising. However, the Mavs’ offense is also 2.9 points worse per 100 possessions with Kaman involved. Turning back to the visualization above, we see that Kaman is featured in 12 different pairings, only two of which have outscored the opposition. Those two — with Brandan Wright and with Jae Crowder — have played a combined 343 minutes, 44 of which are overlapped.
Much of Carlisle’s rotation work this season has felt like tinkering around the edges. As long as they’ve been healthy, the foundational pieces of Kaman, Nowitzki, Mayo and Marion have been largely cemented in place. With Kaman out, Carlisle will be forced to manipulate his foundation, and there is an opportunity for Brandan Wright and Bernard James to find their way back into the regular rotation in a significant way. Both Wright and James have been featured in several successful (albeit scarcely used) pairings, and I can’t help but feel that they are under-utilized assets. Neither player is comfortable away from the basket on offense and each would give the Mavericks a very different look than with Brand or Kaman alongside Nowitzki. When we talk about spacing issues we are usually referring to a team with a lack of outside shooters, allowing the defense to clog the paint. In this case I think the Mavericks can actually improve their spacing by removing overly-willing outside shooters; the insertion of James or Wright will force the defense to expand their focus and defend more of the floor, more vigorously.
The visualization also makes it seem that there could be potential benefits in increased roles for Vince Carter and Jae Crowder. Carter has done tremendous work in keeping the second-unit offense afloat, but maybe it’s time to let him work long more court time with Nowitzki. His ability to work inside and out, particularly as a post-up threat, seems like it could also alleviate some of the one-dimensional reliance on the mid-range jumpshot. It would be a difficult pill to swallow, but perhaps Mayo would be better off swapping places with Carter. Moving to the bench might feel like a step backwards for Mayo and could have significant impacts on team chemistry, but at this point the Mavs’ current rotation isn’t doing much for the team’s present or future.
In addition to his work for The Two Man Game, Ian Levy is the author of Hickory High, and a contributor to Indy Cornrows, Hardwood Paroxysm, HoopChalk and ProBasketballDraft. You can follow Ian on Twitter at @HickoryHigh.
Tags: Bernard James, Brandan Wright, Chris Kaman, Dahntay Jones, Darren Collison, Derek Fisher, Dirk Nowitzki, Dominique Jones, Elton Brand, Jae Crowder, O.J. Mayo, Rick Carlisle, Rodrigue Beaubois, Shawn Marion, Troy Murphy, Vince Carter
Posted by Kirk Henderson on January 30, 2013 under News | 
The NBA issued a statement Wednesday afternoon with regards to a number of calls from the Tuesday night slate of games. Second on the list was an admission that the charge committed by O.J. Mayo in the 106-104 loss to the Blazers was, in fact, a block.
With 1.5 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter of the Dallas Mavericks-Portland Trail Blazers game on January 29, officials called a charging foul on Dallas’ OJ Mayo. After review at the league office, the video replay confirmed the play should have been ruled a blocking foul as Portland’s Ronnie Price did not get his body directly in Mayo’s path prior to him starting his upward shooting motion. Mayo should have been granted two free throws.
The video can be viewed here. Two free throws would have given Dallas a chance to take the lead after LaMarcus Aldridge had tied the game on the previous possession 104-104. Obviously a frustrating admission, since a loss last night means the Mavs have a very small likelihood of making the playoffs.
However, compare this sort of thing to the league Mark Cuban joined in 1999. This sort of admission would not have happened. It’s progress, maybe not the progress Mavs fans would like to see (such as the correct call being made at the time), but its progress nonetheless.
Kirk is a member of the Two Man Game family. Follow him on Twitter @KirkSeriousFace for ranting about Dallas basketball, TV, movies, video games, and his dog
Posted by Kirk Henderson on under Previews |
Box Score — Play-by-Play — Shot Chart — Game Flow
You know the drill. The Difference is a reflection on the game that was, with one bullet for every point in the final margin.
- Luck matters a lot more than we’d like to admit in close games. After all, perhaps Dallas would not have been in this game late in the fourth without a desperation Darren Collison bank three, two missed free throws from Nic Batum, or a ridiculous high, arching pass from Shawn Marion which led to a Dirk Nowitzki three pointer. Of course, that the Mavericks let a 21 point lead evaporate in 13 minutes during the third and fourth quarters is baffling. As is the fact that they gave up 15 offensive rebounds. Then, there’s also the small-ball late game line up Carlisle has opted with in close games (Collison, O.J. Mayo, Vince Carter, Dirk, and Shawn Marion) that just does not work. This was the line up with 1:15 left in the fourth with the Mavs up 101-96. Turnovers (four in the final two minutes, three alone from Mayo) due to terrible recognition and an inability to stop Portland’s offense saw Portland score nine points in 71 seconds to tie the game with four seconds remaining. The ensuing offensive foul call on Mayo was just bad luck; a high speed play that was simply called incorrectly due to human error. But a team this far gone from the playoff hunt needs luck, and the Mavericks have lost far too many close games this season. We can’t write them off just yet, but that time may be drawing near.
- Chris Kaman is out indefinitely with a concussion. While we here at the Two Man Game wish him a speedy recovery, we’ve found out over the last few years that concussions can often be challenging to both diagnose and recover from. Over the last three weeks our parent blog, ESPN’s Truehoop, has published a series of articles about head injuries under the title “Working Bodies”. The first entry is an overview of head injuries and basketball, the second is Brian Scalabrine’s concussion tale, which prompted other players to share their concussion stories for the third entry. All are worth checking out.
Kirk is a member of the Two Man Game family. Follow him on Twitter @KirkSeriousFace for ranting about Dallas basketball, TV, movies, video games, and his dog
Posted by Connor Huchton on January 28, 2013 under Recaps |
Box Score — Play-By-Play — Shot Chart — Game Flow
You know the drill. The Difference is a reflection on the game that was, with one bullet for every point in the final margin.
- The Mavericks’ win on Sunday night could be described as a story of beginnings and endings (and that’s how I’ll describe it).
- The starting unit began the game well, on the heels of precise ball movement and an active Shawn Marion (9-19 FG, 18 points, nine rebounds, five assists), and finished equally adeptly, as Dirk Nowitzki (7-14 FG, 18 points, seven rebounds) closed out the fourth quarter with the scoring precision of, well, Dirk Nowitzki.
- Bernard James (1-2 FG, two points, three rebounds, 11 minutes) started the game at center for the Mavericks and performed well enough, though James’ 11 minutes may be indicative of the move’s dual purpose as a means of motivating Chris Kaman (2-4 FG, six points, five rebounds, two turnovers, 11 minutes). Neither James or Kaman served as part of the best pairing with Dirk, however.
- That distinction lies with Elton Brand (6-10 FG, 12 points, three rebounds, 17 minutes), as it has much of the time in recent weeks.
- I’d be remiss to write any further without mentioning that Dirk passed Allen Iverson for 18th all-time on the NBA’s scoring list. Well done, Dirk.
- And hopefully his ascension towards further tiers of that list continues.
- Though their numbers weren’t gaudy, the Mavericks’ guards deserve credit for a job admirably done. O.J. Mayo (4-9 FG, eight points, six assists), Darren Collison (3-7, eight points, five assists), Dahntay Jones (4-5 FG, 11 points), Vince Carter (5-8 FG, 2-3 3PT, 15 points, four rebounds, three assists, three steals), and Rodrigue Beaubois (3-7 FG, eight points, three assists, three rebounds) collectively played quite well, and their overall decision-making radiated excellency.
- That excellent decision-making propelled the Mavericks to 26 assists and only 13 turnovers, good for an aesthetically pleasing 2:1 ratio.
- All 13 active Mavericks earned playing time, which in this case was indicative of a comfortable win.
- Another key to the Mavericks’ victory was how well they spaced the floor.
- Guards were able to make post passes into feasibly-sized windows, and areas of the floor were often carefully sectioned off for the sake of Shawn Marion, Dirk, or cutting guards (Mayo, Beaubois, etc.) on their way to the basket.
- That element of movement and spacing is absolutely crucial for a team that’s been frequently mired in offensive stagnancy.
- Four Mavericks’ centers played significant minutes tonight, which give some insight into the current revolving door of Mavericks’ center minutes.
- Brandan Wright (1-3 FG, four points, three rebounds, three assists) was the fourth center used tonight. He first saw minutes in the fourth quarter and helped spark a momentous run with keen passes near the basket and an important finish.
- Wright was also the only Maverick to make less than 42% of his shots, another mark of a thoroughly efficient offensive performance.
Tags: Allen Iverson, Bernard James, Brandan Wright, Chris Kaman, Dahntay Jones, Darren Collison, Dirk Nowitzki, Elton Brand, O.J. Mayo, Rodrigue Beaubois, Shawn Marion, Vince Carter
Posted by Kirk Henderson on January 25, 2013 under Recaps |
Box Score — Play-by-Play — Shot Chart — Game Flow
You know the drill. The Difference is a reflection on the game that was, with one bullet for every point in the final margin.
- If one was to look at the final score without knowing anything about the game, it appears to be a real improvement from earlier Mavs-Spurs match ups. It was not. That the Mavericks whittled a 26 point Spurs lead to four is nice, but that they were down 26 at all is cause for alarm. With Tim Duncan out, Gregg Popovich not coaching, and Manu Ginobli only playing eight minutes, Dallas should have been able to stay with the Spurs. Instead, team defense was atrocious and the offense stagnant for most of the game.
- I’m starting to get concerned about Dirk Nowitzki’s role. While he had 14 shot attempts against the Spurs, he often goes very long stretches of time without an attempt. Dirk took one shot to start the second quarter, then didn’t shoot again until just over a minute left in the period. While he was on the bench for some of that 10 minute stretch, I believe Dirk should be the focal point for consistent stretches as opposed to short outbursts. He is making a concerted effort to get his teammates involved, as evidenced by his four assists in the first quarter. But outside of the other starters and Chris Kaman, I don’t like Dirk passing up a shot to feed Mike James on the baseline as he did with 6:45 left in the fourth.
- Dallas could not find an effective pick and roll coverage against Tony Parker (23 points, 10 assists) or Gary Neal (18 points, six assists). Carlisle attempted to trap the ball handler with Kaman in first half, which resulted in DeJuan Blair (22 points on 10 of 13 shooting) going off as the roll man. Both ball handlers were easily able to pass around any trap attempt. In the second half, Carlisle elected to have Darren Collison (who still seems shocked every time he runs into a screen) trail Parker over the top of screens and Parker responded by hitting a variety of really tough shots.
- Well would you look at that, a Roddy Beaubois (19 points on 6 of 8 shooting, and five free throws) sighting! He scored more points against the Spurs than he did the entire month of December (15). It’d be a boost for Dallas if they could somehow get some burn from Roddy. He’s incredibly athletic and instinctual, and his play can change the pace for a Dallas team that can be athletically challenged, particularly in the half court.
- Someone needs to have an intervention for Jae Crowder and his shot selection. Every single shot he attempted was 17 feet or farther from the rim. In the first quarter he pulled up to take an uncontested jumper on a fast break when he had a clear attempt at the rim. He tried to make up for this in the second period by attacking the rim on a fast break, only to commit a turnover by running over Manu Ginobli. Later in the quarter he stole the ball from Tiago Splitter after a rebound and decided to shoot a three while at least two of his teammates were not yet past half court. In the fourth, when Dallas was making a fast and furious run, Crowder shot a contested 17 footer from the baseline that caused Jeff Van Gundy to question whether Crowder understands his role on the team. He missed every single shot until a prayer three fell when the game was out of reach. Jae needs to spend a little more time modeling his game after Shawn Marion and a little less emulating Josh Howard.
- If Dallas hopes to make the playoffs, losing games against short handed teams is no longer an option. Currently, eleventh in the West, Dallas still has an outside chance to make the playoffs. Portland and Minnesota are stumbling and the Lakers manage to keep lowering the bar. If the Mavericks take care of business and either Utah or Houston stumble down the stretch, the eight seed is still in reach. Some luck will be involved, but in order for that to be a factor, Dallas has to close out these winnable games.
Kirk is a member of the Two Man Game family. Follow him on Twitter @KirkSeriousFace for ranting about Dallas basketball, TV, movies, video games, and his dog.
Posted by Travis Wimberly on January 24, 2013 under Commentary, Recaps |
Thermodynamics (n.) – the science concerned with the relations between heat and mechanical energy
The Mavs played just two games this week (1-1), so this will be a relatively lean and mean installment of Thermodynamics. Still, there’s plenty to talk about, especially given that both games went down to the wire.
Week 13 (Thunder, @Magic)
FIRE
1) Bench Play
I’ve broadly labeled this item “Bench Play,” but I’m really talking about two bench players in particular: Vince Carter and Elton Brand. Both guys produced well this week. In Friday’s nationally televised bout with OKC, Carter was the Mavs’ leading scorer and probably their best overall performer. He dropped 29 points and had an effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) of 71. Further, despite handling the ball extensively, he had zero turnovers in 32 minutes of action. In Orlando on Sunday, Carter didn’t shoot well from two-point range, but he had a solid all-around game: 15 points (50 eFG%), six assists, and three blocks. And to the extent you find value in single-game plus-minus numbers, Carter was the Mavs’ plus-minus leader for both games (+10 against OKC, +22 against Orlando).
The other half of this bench duo, Brand, also deserves commendation. It wasn’t a torrid shooting week like he had earlier in January, but Brand made an impact in several phases. He averaged 12 PPG, shot a cumulative 11-of-24 (46%), and chipped in nearly 10 rebounds per game. His 13-rebound performance against OKC was especially needed, as the Thunder (predictably) abused the other, less-athletic Mavs on the boards by grabbing 18 offensive rebounds (five in the fourth quarter and overtime alone).
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Posted by David Hopkins on January 22, 2013 under Commentary |
“Enough! Again must I contend with the creatures of this tiny world. They who, alone in all creation, have stymied my will.” – Galactus, Devourer of Worlds
With half the season over and done with, and a couple days off before facing San Antonio, it’s a good time to reflect on what we’ve seen so far from the Mavs. It was a strange time for this franchise in flux. The Mavs had a good hard look at the world without Nowitzki and shuddered. The Mavs endured more blowout losses than would be considered healthy for the fragile psyche of a new team. The rotations have been confounding at times. (Was it just me or did Derek Fisher play on the Mavericks for a few days? Was that real?) The Mavs dipped farther below 500 than they had in a long, long time. And yet, there’s been an encouraging push in recent days that moved the playoffs back into conversation.
If the Mavericks were to award MVP honors at mid-season, by most statistical indicators, it would go to O.J. Mayo. If you look at ESPN’s Hollinger stats page, O.J. Mayo has the highest “player efficiency rating” on the team at 16.8 (Not counting Brandan Wright’s astounding 21.08 PER. However, Carlisle has Wright nailed to the bench. It’s a debate for another time, but whose minutes do you subtract to give more time to Wright?) O.J. Mayo has the highest “value added” at 141.4, and the highest “estimated wins added” at 4.7. Mayo’s true shooting percentage is .001 behind Collison, who has the team’s highest percentage at .583 (once again not counting Wright, sigh). Another interesting figure cited by our own Bryan Gutierrez on the weekly rundown, O.J. Mayo has the second highest “clutch time production” in the league, i.e. the last 5 minutes in the fourth quarter with the score within 5 points.
To quote Dennis Velasco from the Basketball Jones, “O.J. Mayo had to settle for a one-year deal with the Dallas Mavericks this offseason, but so far the numbers he’s put up have been quite impressive. If life were a cartoon, his agents would have dollar signs in their eyes. He’s having the best season of his career…”
All true, but I would award the mid-season MVP to a more quiet performance. He’s someone so reliable, he almost goes unnoticed. In my opinion, Shawn Marion saved this season.
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