A Reckoning

Posted by Ian Levy on May 17, 2011 under Commentary | Read the First Comment

“Our similarities bring us to a common ground; our differences allow us to be fascinated by each other.” – Tom Robbins

The Mavericks and Thunder have arrived in the Western Conference Finals by way of very different trajectories – the Mavs having swept the defending champion Lakers, the Thunder fighting off their future rivals, the Grizzlies. Game 1 tonight will be the beginning of a, hopefully, spirited series between the youngest and oldest teams in league (weighted by minutes played). Besides the dichotomy between youthful exuberance and aged wisdom, here are a few other items to watch for:

  • The Mavericks outscored the Thunder by 5.46 points per 100 possessions in their three regular season matchups. However, in the 24 minutes Jeff Green wasn’t on the floor the Thunder outscored the Mavericks by 24.86 points per 100 possessions. I have it on good authority that Green will not be playing for the Thunder in this series, and no I won’t be revealing my sources. Taking away Green and Nenad Kristic, replacing them with Kendrick Perkins and a bigger dose of Serge Ibaka means there will be some configurations the Mavericks haven’t seen in person. The Mavericks also have gone through some changes of their own, losing Caron Butler and finding a place for Peja Stojokavic. In short these are two very different teams than the ones that last met in the regular season.
  • Rob pointed out in his series preview yesterday, that the Mavericks posted an Offensive Rating of 131.37 against the Thunder this season with Dirk Nowitzki on the floor. To be fair to the Thunder, a lot of that offense came at the expense of Jeff Green. Against the frontcourt tandem of Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison, the Mavericks posted an Offensive Rating of just 105.26. Expect the Thunder to try a few different defenders on Nowitzki.
  • Oklahoma City led the league in FT/FGA and FT% this season. The average NBA team scored 18.6 points per game at the free throw line. The Thunder scored 24.1. During the regular season, the Mavericks did as good a job as anyone at keeping the Thunder off the free throw line. They held the Thunder to 17.7 points per game at the free throw line and a FT/FGA ratio of 0.215, that’s below the league average and well below their league-leading mark of 0.299. If the Mavericks can continue to keep the Thunder off the foul line they’ll have neutralized one of their biggest weapons.
  • The Mavericks have rebounded really well against the Thunder this season. Across their three games they’ve grabbed 26.2% of their own misses, and 76.6% on the defensive glass. The 76.6 DRB% would have been the second best mark in the league had they maintained it across the entire season. Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood are coming off a thorough stomping of one of the best front-courts in the league. Their ability to maintain intensity and focus will be key for the Mavericks.
  • The lineup of Kidd-Terry-Marion-Nowitzki-Chandler has been one of the Mavericks’ most frequently used and most successful lineups. This lineup was particularly effective against the Thunder during the regular season, scoring 28 points on 15 possessions in just under 8 minutes of play. That’s an Offensive Rating of 186.67. They also held the Thunder to 13 points on 15 possessions over the same time span, a Defensive Rating of 86.67. Matchups will be important all over the floor. If the Mavericks can be successful with largely the same rotation they’ve been using in the playoffs, it should help them maintain continuity with their blistering offensive execution.

Ian Levy is the author of Hickory High, a contributor to Indy Cornrows, and a part of The Two Man Game family. You can follow Ian on Twitter at @HickoryHigh.