Posted by Rob Mahoney on July 1, 2010 under Commentary, News | 
When the Mavs traded resident dreamboat Kris Humphries (along with resident headache Shawne Williams) for Eduardo Najera in January, the primary motivations for the deal seemed to be financial ones. Najera and Humphries are comparable players after all, and Mark Cuban saved an immediate $4.6 million after tax implications by trading Hump for a player almost 10 years his senior and ditching Williams’ 2009-2010 salary. However, the long-term financial outcome of the move is dependent on what the Mavs choose to do with Eddie or rather, what they chose not to do prior to midnight.
Had Dallas chosen to waive Najera prior to the start of free agency (and opted not to fill the open roster spot he left behind), Mark Cuban would have saved a combined $2 milion over the next two seasons after tax. It would be tough to blame him if that’s where he elected to trim the fat; although Najera definitely has utility, Cuban will already be spending a ridiculous amount of money over the next two years (the Mavs already have over $55 million in guaranteed salary for next season, and that’s not accounting for Dirk Nowitzki, Brendan Haywood, a potential MLE signing, and whomever the Mavs fetch using Erick Dampier’s contract). Instead, this move is precisely what makes Mark, Mark: rather than cutting a usable bench player for minor savings, Cuban will foot the bill and keep a big who played almost 15 minutes per in 33 contests for Dallas last season.
There will undoubtedly be power forward options superior to Najera on the open market this summer, but the Mavs will have limited means in which to attain them. The mid-level exception should be conserved as a last resort to grab a center should both Brendan Haywood and Erick Dampier sign elsewhere, and to target a backup 4 in a sign-and-trade would waste an incredible opportunity to satisfy one of the Mavs’ clearer positional needs. Keeping Eddie is the right move for a team over the cap, provided the owner is willing to pay for him to stay. Cuban is, so Najera will.
If the Mavs elect to hold on to Najera through 2011-2012 (his salary for that year is also partially unguaranteed, and waiving him next summer could save Cuban $1 million after tax), they will actually end up paying Eddie more money over his three seasons with the Mavs than they would have paid Humphries and Williams through two. That’s not the kind of move that wins championships, but it could give Dallas another big body to use during the draining regular season. He’s more than just a practice body, even if he’s not quite productive enough to be a full-time back-up for Dirk. Nothing Najera is or does makes him vital to the Maverick machine, but sometimes it’s just nice to have one of those pieces that makes everything run just a tad bit more smoothly.
Here are the updated finances of the deal, with Humphries’ accepted player option, Najera’s guaranteed ‘10-’11 salary, and Shawne Williams not receiving a qualifying offer:
| '09-'10 | '10-'11 | '11-'12 |
| Kris Humphries | $2,900,000 | $3,200,000 | --- |
| Shawne Williams | $2,416,067 | --- | --- |
| '09-'10 | '10-'11 | '11-'12 |
| Eduardo Najera | $3,000,000 | $3,000,000 | $2,750,000* |
*Najera’s 2011-2012 salary is partially unguaranteed ($2,250,000)
Salaries are from Storytellers Contracts.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on January 29, 2010 under Commentary |
Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News:
“We got to get the ball in people’s hands who can put it in the basket, that’s the bottom line,” Jason Terry said. “Their bench outplayed us all night. Clear as day. It can’t happen. They just outplayed us.”
Jason Terry’s not wrong; the trademark of a functional offense is appropriate shot selection. The distribution of possessions in last night’s game was mostly regular, with one glaring exception: Dirk Nowitzki was anything but a part of the offense in the fourth quarter. Much credit goes to the Suns’ defense, but quality offensive outfits find ways to get shots for their best scorers.
Earlier this week, Matt Moore unveiled a graphical display of each team’s offense in terms of usage (percentage of possessions used by a player while he’s on the floor) and Player Efficiency Rating (PER). Here’s a look at the Mavs’ offense:
Starting from the top of the graph and going clockwise, players are ordered in terms of their possession usage. The white area of the graph represents the player’s PER, with the two optimally being relative close, or at least proportional (though, it’s definitely worth noting that usage and PER are in no way measured by the same scale. They’re completely different metrics.). So let’s break it down on a player-by-player basis, shall we?
HIGH USAGE PLAYERS:
Dirk Nowitzki (23.20 PER, 29.16 usage) - Dirk is the king of the castle. The top banana. The big enchilada. The MVP-caliber power forward who has the license to shoot any shot he wants any time he wants it. It’s his prerogative. Nowitzki is the team’s most effective and consistent scorer by far, and the team appropriates possessions to him accordingly.
Josh Howard (11.36 PER, 24.37 usage) - Lo, our first hiccup. Josh has had a rough season in terms of efficiency, but it hasn’t stopped him from chucking up shots at will. It’s ye olde premise of shooting oneself out of a slump…only Howard’s still mired in it. To Josh’s credit, he’s performing better since his return to the bench. But the high number of field goals attempted and high number of turnovers send his usage rate to, at least, upper tropospheric heights. It’s one thing for Josh to be an ineffective, “invisible” player, but Howard was routinely making his team worse by being ineffective while using up a lot of possessions. That’s a definite no-no, and one of the biggest reasons why the Mavs have struggled offensively with Howard in the lineup.
Rodrigue Beaubois (14.24 PER, 22.94 usage) - Having a high usage point guard is a bit unusual, but the situation with Beaubois is a bit more complicated. For one, he’s played a vast majority of his minutes this season off the ball, which puts him in a position to shoot more than your average combo guard. Playing alongside a pure distributor like Jason Kidd doesn’t hurt in that respect either, nor does starting with other low usage players like Shawn Marion and Erick Dampier. Once Roddy was relegated into duty as a deep reserve, his occasional minutes were rare chances to showcase his abilities. It’s only natural that those at the end of the bench will put up shots during garbage time, and while I wouldn’t call Beaubois selfish by any means, he was certainly determined to get his.
Jason Terry (15.68 PER, 22.45 usage) - In theory, this usage is about right. Terry recorded a career high in usage rate last year (25.56), but with the additions the Mavs made in the off-season and the full-time return of Josh Howard, that number was sure to dip. What’s more troubling is JET’s merely average PER, which is his lowest in his career excluding his rookie year. Terry’s efficiency has started to pick up, but he’ll need a pretty stellar second half to meet his career numbers. Still, the important thing isn’t how Terry’s production is represented statistically at the end of the season, but how he performs from now until then. What’s done is done, and though JET’s poor shooting has played a role in plenty of Dallas losses, it’s far more important that he shoots well going into April than going into February.
MID-LEVEL USAGE PLAYERS:
Kris Humphries (15.30 PER, 21.58 usage) - Checking Humphries’ numbers over the course of this season (both in New Jersey and Dallas), I can’t help but think that the Mavs weren’t properly utilizing Hump’s talents. He was impressive, but not overwhelmingly so. Could that be because Hump was primarily playing out of position? It seems a logical argument to me, but 82games doesn’t agree. Could it be that he wasn’t valued enough in the offense? Possible; his relatively high usage rate would seem to betray the notion, but keep in mind Hump’s incredibly high offensive rebounding rate. He was creating possessions on his own, for the most part, and most of his shot attempts were coming around the basket. It goes against the scouting report I would write on Hump, but is it possible that New Jersey has figured something out about Kris Humphries’ game that the Mavs could not? Or is this just another case of a big man on a bad team boasting a bloated PER?
Tim Thomas (15.58 PER, 21.13 usage) - Tim Thomas is pretty versatile, but make no mistake: his job is to shoot the ball. Sometimes that involves working the pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop. Sometimes it involves spotting up from the corner. And more often than you’d think, it involves setting up on the low block. As for the PER? It’s among the best outputs of Thomas’ career. Can’t ask much more from Thomas than what he’s given the Mavs in limited playing time this season.
Drew Gooden (16.82 PER, 20.15 usage) - In coming to Dallas, Drew Gooden was asked to occupy different spots on the floor and change his position entirely. So naturally, he’s responded by putting up solid numbers at an efficient rate…just as he’s done throughout his career. PER doesn’t really measure defensive performance, and that’s largely a reason why Gooden is rated so highly. But in terms of offense, the Mavs have a clearly above average player occupying their back-up center spot…which isn’t something that a lot of teams in the league can say (only Los Angeles, Philadelphia and Charlotte, by way of these rankings). That makes his usage rate completely understandable, especially given the help that the Mavs need in terms of bench scoring.
J.J. Barea (12.61 PER, 19.94 usage) - Like Beaubois, Barea has logged plenty of time as the 2. Rick Carlisle clearly finds great comfort in having two ball-handlers on the floor, and J.J.’s drive and kick style is different enough from Kidd’s more traditional point guard play and Terry’s pull-up game that the skill sets aren’t redundant. In the Tony Parker mold, J.J.’s passing is a product of the threat of his scoring, which contextualizes his high possession usage. As for the PER? Well, Barea’s good, but not that good. He’s a solid back-up point man, and perfectly capable of taking over a game when he’s on a roll. But the rest of the time his production falls right in line with his role on the team. A good back-up point is hard to find, and though Barea’s game is definitely flawed in a few ways, he qualifies.
Matt Carroll (5.74 PER, 18.31 usage) - Matt Carroll used to make basketball shots. Now he just shoots basketball shots. And sits on the bench. A lot.
LOW USAGE PLAYERS:
Shawn Marion (15.67 PER, 17.57 usage) - Though Marion’s on-court offerings have been translating to the scoreboard lately, that’s not quite in his job description. Shawn’s primary objective is to defend, and the rebounding and points that come as a result are simply organic byproducts of the game. Marion gets rebounds because he’s a natural rebounder, nevermind the fact that Nowitzki, Dampier, Gooden, and Kidd are all strong relative to their positions. Marion gets points because he’s open, and because Jason Kidd knows what he’s doing. But without impressive game totals in points, rebounds, etc., Shawn’s PER was never going to be sky-high.
James Singleton (9.13 PER, 16.81 usage) - Despite James’ occasional delusions of jumpshooting grandeur, he usually sticks to the script. Singleton is in the game as an energy guy first and foremost, and strictly speaking his contributions should be limited to defense and rebounding. But you throw a guy some shots every now and then, even if he’s not necessarily great at converting them. His usage is in a range where it’s hardly damaging, and his extremely limited playing time makes it a virtual non-factor regardless.
Jason Kidd (15.68 PER, 12.90 usage) - What more can I say about Jason Kidd? He makes the offense go. His instincts as a point guard are All-World, and though he isn’t the box score stuffer he used to be, his offensive numbers on the season are still quite solid. Kidd’s no longer the type of star you can build a team around, but he is the kind of star that can produce quality shots for himself and his teammates. He doesn’t turn the ball over that much or force many shot attempts (hence the low usage), but he doesn’t have the kind of top-notch statistical production needed to register a higher PER (hence…well, the low PER).
Erick Dampier (15.92 PER, 12.52 usage) - Basically in the same boat as Shawn Marion. Dampier is fighting the good fight by cleaning the glass, setting picks for his teammates, and scoring on minimal shot attempts.
Quinton Ross (5.74 PER, 9.49 usage) - Not applicable. I think Q-Ross is a solid contributor to a team like the Mavs, but nothing he does on the court would translate to PER.
Tags: Dirk Nowitzki, Erick Dampier, J.J. Barea, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Josh Howard, Kris Humphries, Matt Carroll, Quinton Ross, Rodrigue Beaubois, Shawn Marion, Tim Thomas
Posted by Rob Mahoney on January 13, 2010 under Rumors |
In what was supposed to be a relatively uneventful trade season for the Mavs, we know two things:
- The Mavs made a move to swap Kris Humphries and Shawne Williams for Eddie Najera, earning some short-term savings, bringing a fan favorite back to Dallas, and picking up a guy with a positive influence in the locker room.
- Before that, the Mavs tried to package Hump, Williams, and Drew Gooden in a salary-clearing deal for Carlos Boozer that would have saved the Jazz $2.5 million initially, an additional $2.6 million if they decided to waive Gooden, and possibly more if the Mavs threw cash compensations into the deal.
Needless to say, the latter would have been a complete game-changer. If the Mavs had the luxury of bringing Boozer off of the bench (and make no mistake, that’s the role that would best serve the team) instead of Gooden, Dallas immediately becomes a contender for the Western Conference crown and the title. Plus, if the Mavs could have picked up Drew Gooden on the flip side after being waived, they would have a dominant rotation of bigs capable of matching any in the league.
But it wasn’t meant to be. Rather than trade out of their luxury tax obligations by ditching Boozer for pennies (or halves of pennies, really) on the dollar, the 9th place Jazz know that right now they need Carlos Boozer. Deron Williams has quietly had a terrific season, but would he be able to fend off the Thunder, Rockets, Hornets, and Grizzlies with Kris Humphries’ production replacing Boozer’s? Hardly. Booz is absolutely crucial to Utah’s playoff hopes, and while I’m sure that on some level Kevin O’Connor would love nothing more than to rid himself of the headache, he’s well aware of his team’s dependency.
So no Boozer, for now, at least. And now that Drew Gooden’s contract has lost its value to teams over the luxury tax (his salary is now guaranteed for the season), hopefully never. As Stein mentions in his piece over at TrueHoop, the Mavs don’t gain much if they agree to swap Josh Howard or Erick Dampier in a deal for Boozer. That said, Stein cites a different line of logic than I would. According to Marc, trading Howard, Dampier, or another core piece for Boozer is troublesome in that there’s no guarantee of Carlos’ return. That’s true. But the real trouble would be what the Mavs would do this season without either one of those players. If they lose Dampier, the vaunted Mavs’ defense falls to pieces, and Damp’s minutes are ceded to a guy marked by his inability to block shots and his irrelevance as a low post defender. If they lose Josh, the perimeter defense suffers, albeit with a bit less of an overall effect on the team’s success on that end than if they were to trade Damp. Trading Josh seems like the more palatable option…but while Boozer would bolster the Mavs’ rotation in the frontcourt, the backcourt would likely be a mess. No Howard means more Terry (who for all his improvements on defense, is a merely average defender) and more Barea (who has really struggled lately and continues to be a defensive liability), which is a pretty lethal blow to the team defense.
Carlos Boozer would be an interesting addition, and the Mavs took a shot. A long shot, admittedly, but Nelson, Cuban, and Carlisle tried to offer the Jazz exactly what they need. That Utah still fancies themselves contenders for the playoffs seems to be the real complication.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on under xOther |
If today should indeed mark the official end of Kris Humphries’ tenure as a Maverick, I want to send him off in style. Though Hump’s rebounding, energy, and highlight reel blocks and slams are reason enough to lament his departure, let’s be honest here. The real reason why Kris Humphries will be missed and remembered forever: he’s a stud muffin.
I know it, you know, it and the ladies in the D/FW metroplex sure know it. It’s common knowledge that all the girls want to be with Hump and all the guys want to be Hump. Facts just don’t get more factual than that.
And as such, seeing female fans display messages to Hump via signage or try to stand next to him in the huddle wearing a wedding dress was more or less commonplace. It’s simply a part of the stud lifestyle. And in honor of the Humphries era coming to a close, I’ve collected just a few of my favorite Hump-themed signs held by members of his adoring female fan base (all photos are 100% authentic and taken in-game at American Airlines Center):
(Re: This.)
Until next time, Hump. Stay studly.
