Posted by Rob Mahoney on February 17, 2010 under Recaps | 
Photo by Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images.
Box Score — Play-By-Play — Shot Chart — GameFlow
“The two most powerful warriors are patience and time.”
-Leo Tolstoy
WORST. TRADE. EVER. I mean, did you see how out-of-sync Caron Butler looked? How many botched put-back attempts he had? How Serge Ibaka made a baby hook over Brendan Haywood?
Well, get used to it. Until the Mavs, new and old, have sufficient time to get acquainted, we’ll likely see more of the same. But you’ll also see Caron Butler charging baseline for a one-handed throwdown. You’ll see Brendan Haywood finishing a contested layup on the move after a feed from Jason Terry. In terms of what Butler and Haywood brought to the table in the first game of the rest of our lives, there was a lot to like, and a lot to make you cringe. That’s just the way of things when you’re incorporating new pieces into the rotation, especially with players as significant as these; the old Mavs are trying really hard to integrate the new ones, the new Mavs are trying really hard not to overshoot and alienate the old ones, and everyone out there is just a bit anxious to prove that the trade is as good as it sounds.
The result was some awful shooting, defensive failings, and finding ways to either move the ball too much or move it too little. Dallas Mavericks as pick-up team are not good enough to beat a team as skilled and successful as the Thunder, but that doesn’t say much at all about how good the Mavericks will be when they play like themselves.
On the other hand, you have to applaud the Thunder’s performance. Kevin Durant’s 25 points an 14 rebounds is impressive, but it took him 28 shots to reach that total. On most nights, the Durantula has to carry OKC’s offense. But last night it was his counterparts — Jeff Green (17 points, six rebounds, two steals, two blocks) and Russell Westbrook (17 points, eight assists, six rebounds, just one turnover) — bearded wonder James Harden (17 points on 5-7 shooting, five rebounds, six assists), and the cavalry of Thunder role players that got the job done. The Mavs had a particularly tough time stopping the Thunder’s transition game, in which Westbrook drove it down the throat of the defense before finishing at the rim or kicking it out to an open shooter. For a night, he was a more explosive Tony Parker, and the cast of OKC’s shooters were gunning from the corners in the Spurs tradition.
Fouling also turned out to be a huge problem, as the step-slow Mavs defense ended up hacking the Thunder to the tune of 30 free throw attempts. Most of OKC’s struggles have taken place on offense, and giving them that many free points is just asking for a loss. Know your opponent.
The Mavs were far too hesitant on offense to counter, as efforts to include Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood were often met with turnovers or a short shot-clock. Jeff Green and, oddly enough, James Harden, played some pretty terrific defense on Dirk (24 points on 9-22 shoot, nine rebounds, six assists), with Green in particular hounding Nowitzki out of any late-game heroics he may have had up his sleeve. Dallas couldn’t manage much at all in the way of scoring, as Jason Terry, Jason Kidd, and Caron Butler (the only other Mavs in double-figures) combined for 39 points shooting 12 of 41 from the field. The Mavs played poorly enough offensively to fall short of a lot of teams in this league, and their lack of purposeful ball movement and poor shooting were exacerbated by the hyper-athletic, impressively active Thunder defense.
It certainly wasn’t the Mavs’ finest hour, but hardly their darkest. Give it time.
Closing thoughts:
- The Mavs’ third quarter was miserable. Just miserable. They shot 3 of 21 from the field and scored just 11 points. Sigh.
- J.J. Barea leap-frogged Rodrigue Beaubois in the rotation last night, which makes sense. Though Roddy may seem like a nice defensive match-up against Westbrook, Rick Carlisle was much more concerned with integrating Butler and Haywood into the offense. That’s something that Barea, the more experienced point guard of the two, is able to do…at least theoretically. Barea didn’t exactly have a terrific night, but that doesn’t make the logic any less sound.
- I don’t think I’ve ever seen so many terrible misses from a Maverick team. Butler and Haywood whiffed some of their attempts, which you could easily chalk up to nerves. But how about Dirk? Kidd? Terry? There were some truly miserable attempts that caught nothing but air or backboard, making last night not only one of worst nights of the new year in terms of offensive production, but certainly the worst in terms of offensive aesthetic.
- DeShawn Stevenson did log some playing time, though he only contributed one turnover and one missed shot.
- To the Mavs’ credit, they hit the offensive boards hard. Butler led the team with four, but Marion, Nowitzki, and Haywood each had three, followed by Erick Dampier’s two. Then again, the Mavs missed so many shots around the basket (they were somehow 9-24 at the rim, compared to the Thunder’s 17-25) that they afforded themselves plenty of opportunities to snag boards.
- Does anyone on this planet not love watching the Thunder play basketball? I enjoy watching just about every team in the NBA, but watching OKC is a pretty sublime experience.
- With the game on the line, Rick Carlisle went with a lineup that he was comfortable with: Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, and Erick Dampier. It didn’t really help; the Thunder still closed out the game with authority, holding the Mavs at arm’s length the whole way.
Tags: Brendan Haywood, Caron Butler, DeShawn Stevenson, Dirk Nowitzki, Erick Dampier, J.J. Barea, James Harden, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Jeff Green, Kevin Durant, Rodrigue Beaubois, Russell Westbrook, Shawn Marion
Posted by Rob Mahoney on January 28, 2010 under News |
Yahoo’s Adrian Wojnarowski and Marc Spears have unearthed the All-Star reserves, with a few surprises.
Dirk Nowitzki’s exclusion was not one of them. His selection was never even debatable. But the Western Conference reserves will be Chris Paul, Brandon Roy, Nowitzki, Kevin Durant, Pau Gasol, Deron Williams, and and Zach Randolph. Great picks all the way down the line, and particular kudos to the coaches for picking this crop over Denver’s Chauncey Billups. Billups is a fine player, but this just isn’t his year. Plus, I think there’s a very legitimate argument to be made for Tyreke Evans over Chauncey, anyway…but we’ll save that for another day.
In the East, the reserves will be Rajon Rondo, Joe Johnson, Chris Bosh, Gerald Wallace, Al Horford, Paul Pierce, and Derrick Rose. In related news, it really, really sucks to be David Lee right now. He’s doing just about everything humanly possible (ahem, offensively), and still can’t catch a break. Pierce is having an off-year, but his selection was more or less assumed. I just wish we could see Lee and Josh Smith in the game, but no such luck.
Tags: Al Horford, Brandon Roy, Chris Bosh, Chris Paul, David Lee, Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, Dirk Nowitzki, Gerald Wallace, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Kevin Durant, Pau Gasol, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Zach Randolph
Posted by Rob Mahoney on January 16, 2010 under Recaps |
Photo by Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images.
Box Score — Play-By-Play — Shot Chart — GameFlow
| Team | Pace | Off. Eff. | eFG% | FT/FG | ORB% | TOr |
| Dallas | 97.0 | 102.1 | 47.1 | 55.7 | 28.2 | 14.4 |
| Oklahoma City | | 101.0 | 45.7 | 35.8 | 15.0 | 18.6 |
“Endure.”
-Alfred, as played by Michael Cain
The Mavs have yet to present their magnum opus of home wins, but the formula for their nail-biting win over the Thunder as scribed a bit differently than their other near-letdowns. The effort level was not only consistent, but sufficient, and though the Mavs scored just 19 points in the first quarter while allowing the Thunder a nine-point lead, it was not for lack of trying. The level of execution was clearly sub-par, but in such instances, the Mavs must continue to run. They must continue to rotate. They must continue to drive, and help, and slash, and box-out. Too many teams have been discouraged by the ball refusing to go through the hoop, when effort level should exist in a vacuum.
On some nights, the Mavs would give in. The picks would be weaker, the moves less decisive, and the help defense a step slow. But to their credit, Dallas never ceded the competitive edge. This team knows that it can beat the Thunder, and just as importantly, knows that it can stop Kevin Durant.
Shawn Marion is the man for that unenviable task, and he clearly knows something that the rest of the world does not. How else do you explain KD’s 22.2% shooting against Marion and the Mavs this season, and his 6-18 performance last night? How else do you explain Durant’s seven turnovers, three above his season average? Durant was put on this planet to score the ball, but something in Shawn Marion’s defense has made that objective incredibly difficult. Yes, Durant still put up 30 points, thanks to his 16 attempts from the line. But I’m not sure that anyone in the NBA today is a better man-up defender of the Durantula than the Mavs’ own Shawn Marion, and considering KD’s ridiculous season thus far, that’s quite the compliment. If you’re having trouble with kids sneaking into your garage to steal a trinket or two, you might want to call Shawn. If you’re having trouble convincing a jury of your innocence, you might want to call Shawn. And if you need to close off and defend your borders from an incoming army of up-and-coming All-Star small forwards, you should really, really call Shawn.
Oddly enough, despite of the truly admirable job that Marion did on the defensive end, he probably wasn’t the Mavs’ defensive MVP for the night. That honor goes to Jason Kidd, who played the scouting report on Russell Westbrook to perfection in the first half…only to see Westbrook nail mid-range jumper after mid-range jumper. Naturally, Rick Carlisle and Jason Kidd adjusted, and in the second half, Kidd made defensive play after defensive play. Westbrook was six of nine from the field at halftime, to the tune of 12 points. By game’s end, he was eight of nineteen (that makes two of ten in the second half, for those not in the number-crunching mood) with just 18 points. Kidd’s two blocks tied Erick Dampier for a game-high, and his four steals put him in a class of his own. When the Mavs needed stops, it was Kidd that created possessions out of thin air. When Kevin Durant had a chance to tie the game with 30 seconds left, it was Kidd who challenged his shot, negating Durant’s height advantage with superior effort and technique. Oh, and in between the stops and deflections, Kidd managed to drop 11 points on 50% shooting while totaling 11 assists to just one turnover.
Then there was Dirk Nowitzki, who looked more or less unstoppable against single coverage. 32 points on 18 shots is a tad impressive. Though five rebounds and four turnovers isn’t what you’d like to see out of a star power forward, you take what you get with a guy who can score like hell and hit what was essentially the game-winning shot. Dirk had the Mavs’ final six points, icing the Thunder and putting up just enough to to eek out a victory.
Jason Terry was kind enough to join Dirk in the scoring column, as JET did went to work in the second half en route to a 21-point night on 9 of 17 shooting. It’s no surprise that the Mavs operate at a completely different level offensively when Terry’s shot is falling, and this win belongs to him as much as it does to Marion, Kidd, or Dirk. His looks ranged from obscenely open to closely contested, but JET is a shooter, and once his aim is properly calibrated for the basket’s sweet spot, he’s tough to deter.
Closing thoughts:
- Josh Howard had a horrible offensive night. He was not only shooting blanks but shooting plenty of them (2-14 FG), as the Mavs looked to him often in the absence of Dirk and JET. In theory, that approach is sound; Howard is the most natural wing scorer the Mavs have aside from Terry, and his ability to create his own shot trumps the rest of the rotation easily. But the Thunder were practically daring Josh to pull the trigger from mid-range, and though he was happy to oblige, the Mavs can’t be happy with the result. Howard’s shot selection remains his biggest flaw, and on a night where he simply can’t find the net, he’s not in a position where he can shoot himself into a rhythm. Those are shots that should be going to more efficient scorers, and while I’d very much like to see Josh scoring big in the flow of the offense, I’d rather he not make it his personal mission to chuck up jumper after jumper.
- Rodrigue Beaubois and Byron (the artist formerly known as B.J.) Mullens, who were swapped for each other on draft night, logged a combined zero minutes. It’s a fun time to be a rookie.
- Eddie Najera was suited up for the game, but did not play.
- James Singleton logged seven minutes of action, grabbing two rebounds and…well, not much else. But he appears to be stepping into Kris Humphries’ role as a reserve power forward. I’d expect that to continue, particularly on nights where Shawn Marion is locked in to the three on defensive duties, as he was tonight against Kevin Durant.
- Though Josh had a tough night, he did have a hand in saving the game. Jason Terry missed two free throws with four seconds remaining, leaving the door open for the Thunder to get one final shot. They had no timeouts remaining, and thus Nenad Krstic had to get the ball into the hands of a playmaker in a timely manner. Westbrook was ready and waiting, but when Krstic attempted the outlet, Josh Howard tipped the pass, wasting crucial seconds off the clock. It wasn’t an outright steal, but it was still a tremendous play at a crucial time.
- J.J. Barea has definite value off the bench, and though that role prevents him from applying consistent offensive pressure over long stretchers, it may be his best with the team. He can step in, catch defenses off guard, and create some confusion for half-court defenses.
- Dirk was able to get to the line at will, and his 15 attempts were a huge reason why the Mavs posted an absurd .557 free throws per field goal. That’s a nice parade to the free throw line for a team that sparingly, and oh, every single one of those free throws means a hell of a lot.
GOLD STAR OF THE NIGHT: The Gold Star of the Night goes to…I don’t know, man. Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, and Shawn Marion are all great candidates, with Jason Terry as a possible dark horse. You guys can decide this one; sound off in the comments with your choice for the Gold Star of the Night, with an explanation if you’d like.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on December 17, 2009 under The Grapevine |
- As far as shoes go, I liked the look of Kevin Durant’s KD1s, and I’m particularly fond of the inside/outside colorways. But last night, Durant and the Thunder unveiled the truly awful, traffic cone orange “Dreamsicle” KD2s. It’s a definite downgrade, and although the kicks don’t make the man, I can’t help but feel that these shoes don’t do Durant justice.
- Last night’s game didn’t sit well with Royce Young of Daily Thunder: “…I’m not going to lie, I’m a little upset about this one. Not because OKC lacked effort. Because boy howdy, these guys busted it. But when it really mattered, the seasoned, veteran team took over and made the plays. The young, inexperienced group didn’t. In areas the Thunder are normally very good, they weren’t. An uncharacteristic 14-23 from the free throw line. A couple defensive breakdowns late. Poor shooting from their best players. Maybe it was the pressure of the night, the lights of ESPN or something else. But the fact is, Oklahoma City just didn’t perform.”
- Those of us who watch Dirk Nowitzki on a nightly basis are fully cognizant of his excellence. And for national columnists, it’s easy to overlook the footwork, the pump fakes, and the jumpers in favor of the more obvious talents of a LeBron James or a Dwyane Wade. All the more reason to appreciate Kelly Dwyer, who makes note of Nowitzki’s play almost nightly in his ‘Behind the Box Score.’ His words on Dirk’s performance last night were short and sweet, but to me ring with a sincerity and appreciation that’s not as easy to find among basketball scribes as one might think: “In the end, I think my favorite part of this game was listening to Hubie Brown slowly fall in love with James Harden. Either that, or the way you keep falling in love with Dirk Nowitzki’s game. Ten years later. Night after night. So glad this guy is still around, playing at a level like this.”
- Skeets and Tas loved the Mavs-Thunder game last night, even if Tas isn’t too fond of Dirk’s headband.
- As of yesterday, Kevin Durant was shooting just 30 of 80 (37.5%) in six games against the Mavs. As of this morning, he’s shooting 34 of 98 (34.6%). That, my friends, is a bonafide trend.
- Over their next fifteen games, the Mavs play the Lakers (twice), the Celtics, the Cavs, the Nuggets, the Jazz, the Spurs, the Blazers, the Rockets (twice), the Thunder, the Kings, the Grizzlies, the Pistons, and the Raptors. The total W-L of those teams (weighted appropriately for opponents that appear multiple times) is 225-150, or a .600 win percentage. That means that for the next fifteen games, the Mavs will play an average opponent of the Utah Jazz.
- In an “impromptu dunk contest” at practice today, Kris Humphries showed off some between-the-legs dunks, while assistant coach Darrell Armstrong tried his hand at the high-flying game…by doing a between-the-legs layup. It’s a sad reminder of Armstrong’s actual dunk contest appearance, which featured one of the worst dunks (or non-dunks) in contest history.
- According to Mark Cuban, there are four factors which have been instrumental in the Mavs’ success over the last decade: a dedicated fan base, Donnie Nelson, Dirk Nowitzki, and keeping a consistent core.
- Henry Abbott goes to work debunking the myth that Kobe Bryant is the best clutch player in the NBA, and goes to the numbers to reveal some clutch Mavs: “Every which way people slice and dice crunch time numbers — field goal percentage, plus/minus, you name it — Bryant is not the NBA’s best in crunch time. A glance at last year’s crunch time numbers on 82games.com makes clear Bryant shoots more than anyone else in the NBA in crunch time, but is he more skilled at making those shots? That’s what we’re trying to judge, right? In crunch time field goal percentage, last season Bryant finished 92nd in the League, right behind Michael Beasley. Others ahead of him include Kevin Garnett, both Gasols, Zach Randolph, Carmelo Anthony, Jason Terry, Jameer Nelson, Tim Duncan, Amare Stoudemire, Eric Gordon, Brandon Roy, Andre Iguodala, Jason Kidd, Ben Gordon, and Chris Bosh. You can remember Bryant hitting all those clutch baskets, stat geeks say. But you’re forgetting all the misses. (And if you are learning about Bryant from highlights, then you’re not even seeing most misses.)” Emphasis mine.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on under Recaps |
Photo by Larry W. Smith/NBAE via Getty Images).
Box Score — Play-By-Play — Shot Chart — GameFlow
| Team | Pace | Off. Eff. | eFG% | FT/FG | ORB% | TOr |
| Dallas | 88.0 | 113.6 | 54.1 | 28.8 | 18.9 | 13.6 |
| OKC | | 97.7 | 44.4 | 17.3 | 31.3 | 15.9 |
“Success is doing ordinary things extraordinarily well.”
-Jim Rohn
With this season’s Mavs, there is no switch for Rick Carlisle to flip. They need not token motivational speeches, or external motivation, or emotional incident. There’s simply an internal trigger that brings everything into focus. There’s a gentle whisper in the ear of the team leaders with a simple message: It’s winning time.
A Serge Ibaka dunk put the Thunder up 75-71 with 8:18 left in the fourth quarter, and over the subsequent seven minutes (in which the Mavs went on a 21-5 run), the Mavs were a whirling dervish of defensive stops and heady offensive play. The sloppy execution by OKC was a perfect contrast to Dallas’ patience with the basketball. As the Mavs looked to seal the win and wrap it in a bow, they refused to give into the temptation of contested jumpers or solo heroism, and as a result, they reaped the benefits of open jumpers and, well, solo heroism. Dirk Nowitzki (35 points, 13-17 FG, 11 rebounds) had already established his offensive rhythm, but the Mavs continued to execute their game plan. Sometimes that involved getting the ball into Dirk, but even those possessions were carefully executed and fed the ball to Nowitzki at his favorite spots on the floor. The spacing was excellent, and when OKC’s pressure proved to be too much, Dirk was quick to kick the ball to an open teammate around the basket or at the 3-point line.
On defense, the Mavs managed to exploit the limits of the Thunder offense. As I made note of prior to yesterday’s game, Russell Westbrook (16 points, 6-19 FG, six rebounds, five assists) is a terrific talent, but if it’s the point guard’s job to manage the offense on critical possessions and under difficult circumstances, Westbrook failed. He worked so hard to get into the paint, and it’s hard to rip a guy when he’s putting forth that kind of effort. But last night was an excellent case study in the differences between a veteran offense with a point guard in the truest sense, and a young, developing team still in search of its offensive mojo. Westbrook didn’t have a bad game and the loss hardly falls on his shoulders, but if the Thunder had a different breed of point guard, does the blanketed Kevin Durant get more open looks? Does he get the ball in space, on the move, or from the spots on the floor in which he likes to operate? It’s hard to say conclusively given the stellar defensive effort by the Mavs, but the end result is a bit telling.
The Thunder certainly didn’t give up, and the manner in which they attacked the basket late in the game is commendable. But the Maverick D was ready and waiting, helping and covering to counter screens and giving OKC’s shooters all the room in the world and dared them to shoot. It was the same philosophy that allowed the Mavs’ zone defense to be so effective in the second and third quarters, and a logical plan of attack against a team that ranks 23rd in the league in 3-point shooting percentage.
The crowning achievement of the Mavs’ defense was their shackling of Kevin Durant (12 points, 4-18 FG, four turnovers). It started on the ball with Shawn Marion and Josh Howard, who limited Durant’s touches through ball denial and crowding. When KD finally got his hands on the ball, he faced pressure on his shot from Marion and Howard, pressure on the dribble from Jason Kidd, and pressure on his drives from Erick Dampier and Dirk Nowitzki. The Mavs were able to take away everything that makes Durant so brilliant, and those looking for a keynote performance from the Maverick D need look no further than their work against Durant and the Thunder.
Oh and by the by, Dirk Nowitzki looked pretty much unguardable. He had a few turnovers, but Ibaka and Green, for all their best efforts, were more or less hopeless.
- James Harden (12 points, six rebounds, three turnovers) and Jeff Green (15 points, 7-11 FG, 11 rebounds) were the OKC offense, and I mean that in ways both good and bad. Green was especially remarkable with his range and his touch around the basket, but the fact that the Thunder offense was left to lean so heavily on Harden and Green (who combined to score just 27 points) is a bit problematic. OKC’s offense isn’t very good to begin with, and without big contributions from Kevin Durant and/or Russell Westbrook, they’re going to have a hard time winning games.
- The Mavs were able to weather another minimal scoring performance from Jason Terry (seven points, 2-12 FG, five assists). He ran down the shot clock needlessly and even committed a double-dribble violation while trying to break down his man at the top of the key. Not exactly what you’d like to see out of your team’s second best scorer, regardless of who is matched up against him.
- Rick Carlisle is definitely tightening up the rotation, as only three Mavs (Howard, Gooden, Terry) managed to get off the bench. More to come on that topic later.
- 15 points and three turnovers for Josh Howard, whose offensive efforts were productive, if not pretty. I can’t say I’m too proud of Josh’s shot selection, but again, he came up big. 15 points in a 14-point win? I wouldn’t say that every bucket was crucial, but finding scoring relief with Dirk on the bench is paramount right now.
- Jason Kidd was Jason Kidd. That is all.
GOLD STAR OF THE NIGHT: The Gold Star of the Night goes to Dirk Nowitzki. I mean, he’s pretty good, right? Good enough to drop 35 on 18 shots, good enough to impact the game defensively, and good enough to take over the Maverick offense and make all the right plays. Nowitzki is as good as it gets in the NBA right now, and the Dirk we saw last night had virtually no weaknesses in his game.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on October 22, 2009 under Commentary |
Just weeks ago, Wayne Winston’s time as statistician for the Mavs came to a close. But the sun never sets on the statistical empire. In fact, it shines brightly on the newest face in town: founder of the exquisite 82games.com and newly ordained Mavs’ stat man, Roland Beech.
He analyzes lineups faster than a speeding bullet. His metrics are more powerful than a locomotive. And his body of work leaps over basketball convention in a single bound. If advanced statistics are truly the future, Beech and his contemporaries are blueprints for the flying car. Though their full utility may not yet be actualized, they give teams and fans a glimpse into the mechanics of something both basic and incredibly complex.
So I thought it worth both my time and yours if we got to know Roland a little better. He’s only recently traveled through the looking glass, but he’s already gone from an outsider reading reflections to one very aware of the goings-on of the other side. Without further ado:
———-
Rob: How exactly did you get involved with the Mavs? Did you apply for the position or did they seek you out?
Roland: Well, I launched the 82games website I guess back in ‘02-‘03, and Mark Cuban found the site in like two weeks. He was one of the first people to come across the site. So, y’know, from way back when we were kind of talking. And then, after a few years, I actually started to do some stuff for the Mavs. I mean that was a number of years, but back in California. This year, the idea was to be here, so here I am.
So you being with the team isn’t necessarily a new development, just a more advanced role than you had before?
Well it’s pretty different. I mean certainly in the past, being in California, I was trying to be responsive to what people were interested in and also being creative, trying to come up with ideas. But now I’m here in a much more immediate capacity, so it’s definitely a very different situation. I don’t really know of many other NBA teams with stats people — Houston in particular has a lot that seems to be going on – but it’s kind of an experiment to have me here in this way.
As a basketball fan with a pulse, it’s safe to say I’ve been to 82games. Just out of curiosity, do you consider it to be more of an online showcase of your talents, or a ‘public good’ sort of thing?
It’s a bit of both. I don’t think I had a real clear-cut mission for the site when it started, but it certainly was a bit of an online resume in a way. And that’s been true for a lot contributors, a lot of people that have contributed articles to the site; Dan Rosenbaum, Dave Lewin, Steve Ilardi, people like that have actually been working with teams, so it’s a good way to get a little attention. But I like the fact that it’s essentially this free resource. [82games and] Basketball-Reference, I think, are the two primary stats sites. And things like Basketball Prospectus where they write about a lot of their stats, too.
I heard somewhere that you used to be involved with football statistics, is that true?
Yeah, a long time ago. I actually started with horseracing.
Wow.
I went to a college near a racetrack, and I found myself going down to the horses. That’s a very statistical field, with lots of numbers on how horses have done in the past, and what the jockeys and trainers do.
So that was my start, and I tried to get into the NFL a little bit but it’s very tricky because unless you have the game film it’s very tough to see what’s going on. On the TV broadcasts, they snap the ball and half the guys go off the screen and you can’t really see the blocking and what’s going on. So I became pretty frustrated with football because I felt like there was lots of cool stats that could be done, but I didn’t have the resources to do it. I mean Football Outsiders, I have friends there, and that’s an amazing site but they even with all they’re doing, there’s this frustration that unless they have the game film they can’t do everything they’d like to do.
Whereas in basketball you get a pretty good picture of the game from a standard angle. Basketball I just think is an amazing game. I really kind of oscillate back and forth as to what my favorite sport is. But basketball’s really an incredible sport, so I’m really happy to be here.
Between basketball and football, at least in terms of statistics, which sport has come farther in terms of determining player value?
I mean, that’s hard – I’m not that –
Kind of a loaded question, I know.
Yeah, I think a lot of the NFL teams are very secretive about what they’re doing. I’m sure there’s a ton lot of really innovative work going on there. I do have a few friends in NFL circles and there’s definitely some pretty intense stuff going on there. In some ways in football, guys have very specialized roles. So it seems like it should be easy to figure out the cornerback’s contributions cause he’s got such a specialized part of the field that he’s on. But in basketball, there’s so much movement going on all the time, and these guys do a bit of everything, they rebound, pass, defend, everything, and they’re not quite as specialized as in football. I think they’re both doing a lot of work, I’m just not sure I can say which one is further along.
You mentioned the behind-the-scenes work going on in football, and there’s this weird complication with statistics and sports in general. On one hand you have this casual NBA audience that’s largely uninitiated in advanced stats. Maybe they’ve heard of Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating, maybe not. In a perfect world, that would change. But the exclusivity of the best statistical work makes the most innovative and useful numbers – like what you’re doing with the Mavs – highly classified. Given this give-and-take between fan and team interests, should those of us on the outside even dream of a day when this information might be made available?
I think most teams are really interested in finding out what they can and keeping it to themselves. So if they find anything that will give them some kind of competitive advantage, it’s not something they’re likely to release to the public. On the other hand, I think you can see in the last few years there’s been a massive amount of data made available to the public. Even something like shot charts, people can get a much better understanding of efficiency from different parts of the floor, and guys’ strengths and weaknesses. But to me it’s not clear that to the typical fan, [more advanced stats are] really even that necessary to enjoy the sport.
Yeah, I think you’ll see more and more data as the years go on, maybe even to the point that we have more data than we know what to do with. So I wouldn’t worry too much about that. But at the same time I’m not convinced that the interest in this kind of thing is that widespread. Baseball people are pretty consistently aware of stats, but basketball already has stats. The box score already has a lot of individual stats. But even with plus/minus being recently added, I don’t envision the box score getting a lot more added to it.
As you’re probably well aware, the latest stats-centered controversy in the NBA concerned Kevin Durant’s woeful adjusted plus/minus rating. Henry Abbott talked to Wayne Winston a bit about it, and Wayne went as far as to say that he wouldn’t take Durant on his team for free. What is your take on the developments surrounding Durant’s counter-intuitive numbers?
I’m actually not a big fan of the regression plus/minus rating, even though I’ve actually published a few articles on it. I just don’t believe players have a constant value. The whole foundation of regression is trying to find a constant value for a guy, but value can change pretty dramatically with a different role, a different coaching scheme, different teammates, or different match-ups. I certainly look at plus/minus statistics, but I don’t view it as a one number rating – I don’t think anything is a one number rating that captures everything. I don’t put too much stock in regression plus/minus. I mean, I look at is as a factor.
In Durant’s case, his plus/minus is bad – his on/off, whatever you want to look at. But I still think he’s a great player, and I think we’ll see a progression that’s common from what I’ve seen with a lot of the young players where their plus/minus starts getting better. I think that typically, defense takes a long time to learn when you first come into the league and so over time that should improve. I think Durant will clearly be very good player for a long time to come.
It’s always tickled me a bit — I’ve read in several places on 82games that you don’t believe in the concept of a one metric determination of a player’s value…yet you’re also the guy with a metric as his namesake, the Roland Rating. But I’ve seen people use [the Roland Rating] in that context and it just gets at me that they obviously haven’t read your explanations.
Right. The Roland Rating started out just being an on/off rating, and then people assumed that I was suggesting it was an overall rating. So I threw a bit more in there to actually make it a more serious rating. I just threw in a bit of the PER rating, that type of stuff. But yeah, the Roland Rating is a basic, quick look at the guy. You can see some patterns, like you can see Ron Artest defensively always has a good effect. But if someone were to criticize those ratings I wouldn’t jump out and try to defend them, as I don’t think there is really a summary number.
But yeah, that’s doubly ironic since my name landed in the title.
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That’s all for the first installment of my talk with Roland. Check back tomorrow for more, including much more about the Mavs.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on October 21, 2009 under The Grapevine |
- I completely missed the tail end of SLAM Online’s Top 50 player rankings, but SLAM’s commenters did a great job of pointing out a travesty: Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony were ranked higher than Dirk Nowitzki. In most cases, I understand the tendency to put Dirk on the back end of the top ten. I do. And I have lots of love for both Durant and Anthony. But Durant is almost completely one-dimensional at this point, and Anthony only marginally more versatile. And when it comes to flat-out scoring, I’m not even sure that either is more skilled than Dirk. Nowitzki carries a 50-win team on his shoulders as the team’s best player, and Melo and Durant can at best only claim one of those qualifiers.
- Kevin Pelton chimes in with a reminder on preseason statistics, in light of yesterday’s post: [Preseason statistics] mean more than you might think, but are limited by the small sample size, making shooting percentages potentially misleading.” You can read Pelton’s previous studies on preseason performance here.
- Pun fun with Marquis Daniels.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on March 2, 2009 under Previews |
The Dallas Mavericks visit the Oklahoma City Thunder
7:00 CST
I love the home-and-home. It’s one of the regular season’s greatest creations, and what it lacks in variety it makes up for in intrigue. It’s almost like a mini-playoff, usually against a team that you would never, ever, under any circumstances play in the playoffs. Which is cool.
The Mavs and the Thunder are practically playing a home-and-home, although not entirely. The Mavs played the Raps and the Thunder played the Grizzlies, but the overtimer in Dallas is still fresh on everyone’s minds.
The game’s in OKC this time around, and the Thunder are still decidedly lacking in the Durantula department. Again, a pity. In his absence, though, the Thunder are playing like wounded tigers with laser eyes and rabies, pushing the Mavs to the limit and taking down the Grizz. They don’t need the best small forward in the West, apparently. KD is expected to miss out on tonight’s game with the same ankle troubles, meaning OKC gets another crack at the Mavs. This is where it gets tricky. On one hand, you’d expect the better equipped team to take care of business in the second game. They know what to expect from Green and Westbrook, and don’t have their gameplan scrambled around by planning for Durant. On the other, a previously hungry OKC team may now be nothing short of ravenous, and could feast on a the Mavs if they show up even the least bit lacksidasical. Or will a team with few offensive options outside of Kevin Durant snap out of it and realize what they really are? SO MANY VARIABLES, PEOPLE.
Regardless of the turnout, last week’s preface provided a backdrop to an otherwise meaningless game. No offense to the Thunder, but without Durant they’re small fries. But, armed with the knowledge that this team is capable of getting all up in their biznass, the Mavs should be able to respond in ways that capitalize on the differential in talent and the fairly transparent strategy the Thunder will no doubt employ. Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook are both awesome, but can they really beat the Mavs on their own when Dallas knows what’s coming?
EDIT: Thanks for the heads up from commenter Marrrkus - Jeff Green will not play tonight (back spasms). Source.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on February 28, 2009 under Recaps |
Photo by Tim Heitman/NBAE via Getty Images.
Box Score — Play-By-Play — Shot Chart — GameFlow
“Ambivalence is a wonderful tune to dance to. It has a rhythm all its own.”
-Erica Jong
To say that last night’s game has me drowning in ambivalence would be an understatement. Wins just don’t get more bittersweet.
The call with the Mavs has been to play defense when it matters, and they did just that. Down the stretch, the team came up with big stop after big stop to not only come back from 12 down, but to keep the Thunder at bay. Credit that to Carlisle’s unabashed use of the zone, which turned OKC’s lineup of non-shooters into turnover machines. Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green picked up the slack in a big way, but their work wasn’t easy. Are Westbrook and Green elite scorers? Not exactly, but when players get hot (or in this case, aggressive in their efforts to get to the line), the general measures of defensive success are bent ever so slightly. I’m not thrilled that Westbrook scored 14 or that Green scored 7 in overtime, but I’m definitely pleased with the significant ruckus the Mavs’ defense was able to raise.
That’s not to say that the defensive effort was complete. There’s a distinct reason that the Thunder turned a 5 point deficit into a 12 point lead, and it’s not solely because the Maverick offense went cold. The Thunder should have no business taking the Mavs to task on the offensive end without Kevin Durant, even with a parade to the charity stripe.
There are games where Jason Kidd’s lack of scoring is a significant deadweight. This was not one of those games. Kidd was far from an offensive dynamo in terms of his scoring output, but I’m not at all displeased with what he did for the Mavs’ offense. When the double-teams tried to curtail Dirk (who finished with 41 and was the Clutchotron 5000), Kidd was the principal influence on the Mavs ability to move the ball to the open man (either directly or through the ‘hockey assist’). He came up big with two huge threes and went 4/4 on some crucial free throws (imagine that!). Ballin’.
But where were Josh Howard and Antoine Wright? Two of the crucial cogs in the post-Terrian Dallas attack? They were there. That’s about it. Howard was plagued by foul trouble and bothered by Thabo Sefolosha. His recent uptick in defensive activity was counterbalanced by a few extra whistles. In spite of all that, Howard was +19 for the game, good for best on the team. Wright on the other hand, was out of the game for the entirety of the fourth and overtime. He wasn’t hitting his shots, but Wright wasn’t exactly terrible; his drop-off can be largely attributed to a Maverick surge behind Kidd and Barea in the backcourt.
James Singleton is a monster. That is all.
Dirk scores 41, but the offense was hardly a well-oiled machine. The Mavs defense gets stops late, but allows the Durant-less Thunder to push them to the limit. The Mavs went off on a 16-0 run to avoid disaster, but still nearly blew it against an inferior team missing their best player. Hey, if they gave us definitive answers and consistent play, they just wouldn’t be the Mavs.
GOLD STAR OF THE NIGHT: The Gold Star of the Night goes to none other than Dirk Nowitzki. 41 points (16-30) is always tasty, but Dirk did a great job of shooting and deferring at all the right moments for all the right reasons. Welcome back, Dirk.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on February 27, 2009 under Previews |
The Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Dallas Mavericks
7:30 CST
Jeff Green can’t stop Dirk Nowitzki. Josh Howard can’t stop Kevin Durant. That certainly makes tonight’s game fun, doesn’t it?
One catch: Durant’s on fire, and Dirk’s sputtering. That’s a pretty significant caveat.
The Thunder aren’t as talented of a defensive outfit as the Spurs or even the Bucks, but Durant, Green, and Russell Westbrook make them dangerous. The Mavs have made it abundantly clear that they’re completely vulnerable to blowing games after demonstrative wins, and Dirk is in what is probably the biggest “slump” (by his standards) of his career. Aggressive double-teams and cold shooting have put him in a funk, and I’m not even sure that a subpar OKC defense is going to be enough to lull him out of it. Dirk’s going to turn it around eventually, but I’m of the philosophy that it happens when it happens. If the Thunder aren’t coming strong with the doubles and Dirk actually gets off a reasonable number of attempts, that’s one thing. But when Dirk struggles, it’s rarely because one particular guy is standing in front of him. He’s either being swarmed or he’s off. Not all defenders are created equal, but few can truly contest Dirk’s jumper.
Kevin Durant is really, really good at basketballing. If you’re not legitimately scared of the myriad of ways this guy can carve up a defense, you haven’t been watching enough basketball. His shot is effortless, his range is unreal, and his repertoire is unmatched for a second year player. His faults are few, and he’s improving as a rebounder, defender, and passer. It should be quite the contrast from the slightly above average Richard Jefferson, and Josh Howard/Antoine Wright/whoever draws the short straw is going to have their hands full and then some. The Durantula takes no prisoners.
Regardless if Durant and Dirk end up as two ships passing quietly in the night, whichever supporting cast steps up wins. Based on how the Mavs’ bench has been playing as of late, my money’s on Dallas. This is one of the cases where no Jason Terry may be no problem; Josh Howard, Antoine Wright, Jason Kidd, Brandon Bass, J.J. Barea, and James Singleton are all more than capable and can all cause their own unique problems for the Thunder.
Does stomping the Thunder represent a quality win? Probably not, unless there’s a complete Durant lockdown. A win doesn’t mean much in terms of the team’s progress, but it also means the Mavs aren’t losing any ground in the standings. I doubt the Mavs are circling this game on their calendar, but at this point in the season it’s as much about winning as it is not losing.
