They Smell Like the Future: The 11th Hour

Posted by Rob Mahoney on June 24, 2010 under Commentary | Be the First to Comment

Draft day is upon us. Although the events of this week make moving up in the draft a costly proposition, there’s still an outside chance the Mavs will move up in the second round or even into the late first. Regardless, there should be an interesting prospect of some kind on the board when the Mavs are finally on the clock with the 50th pick. Here are all of the draft previews featured here over the last few weeks (in alphabetical order):

Trevor Booker – PF, Clemson
Aubrey Coleman
– SG, Houston
Sherron Collins – G, Kansas
Charles Garcia – PF, Seattle
Luke Harangody – F, Notre Dame
Mac Koshwal – PF/C, DePaul
Sylven Landesberg – SG, Virginia
Chas McFarland – C, Wake Forest
Art Parakhouski – C, Radford
Dexter Pittman – C, Texas
Jon Scheyer – G, Duke
Donald Sloan – PG, Texas A&M
Mikhail Torrance – PG, Alabama
Greivis Vasquez – G, Maryland
Michael Washington – PF, Arkansas
Brian Zoubek – C, Duke

If the pre-draft buzz is to be believed, Vasquez and Torrance could actually be gone by the end of the first round, with Zoubek not far behind them. Booker should also be out of the question by the time pick no. 50 rolls around, meaning that it’s extremely unlikely that Dallas will be able to draft a player that’s NBA-ready.

Feel free to peruse the per-possession stats of all of the previewed prospects (and all of the players the Mavs have worked out that weren’t previewed) in the chart below. You can sort by any of the listed measures, or classify by position to compare against the rest of the crop.

PlayerPOSTS%eFG%ORB%TO%AST%FTRUSG%STL%BLK%DRB%
Jon ScheyerPG/SG57.250.22.211.525.841.623.12.60.68.4
Art ParakhouskiC58.658.415.614.07.365.827.90.96.023.6
Charles GarciaPF53.149.09.722.08.475.834.90.82.924.9
Greivis VasquezPG/SG54.849.63.818.435.231.330.52.81.010.2
Dexter PittmanC63.865.416.520.45.063.024.51.08.915.3
Sylven LandesbergSG53.047.34.914.522.236.030.11.50.913.3
Luke HarangodySF/PF55.150.58.210.611.835.131.90.82.124.1
Brian ZoubekC62.663.821.621.89.755.317.72.14.024.4
Mikhail TorrancePG59.352.51.119.533.644.925.61.50.811.9
Trevor BookerPF54.953.310.014.417.347.324.82.44.620.4
Mac KoshwalPF/C55.054.411.920.715.348.228.13.32.820.9
Chas McFarlandC49.444.59.923.76.075.318.41.04.618.9
Michael WashingtonPF54.850.79.115.96.362.924.81.45.018.1
Mouhammed FayeSF/PF53.651.28.416.17.934.523.51.42.717.3
Donald SloanPG55.249.62.315.616.745.327.11.10.19.9
Matt JanningSG51.647.21.814.820.133.125.72.70.511.5
Aubrey ColemanSG51.5466.310.215.644.434.14.00.415.6
Devan DowneyPG51.345.81.616.823.431.534.64.50.09.3
Courtney FortsonPG48.340.74.724.224.250.935.42.30.512.8
Derrick CaracterPF59.857.41122.29.045.527.52.03.621.7
Sherron CollinsPG/SG55.850.60.817.624.331.723.31.80.15.6
Ryan ThompsonSG55.547.94.014.116.152.424.01.80.911.1
Jeremy LinPG62.657.13.421.230.968.226.84.43.612.9
Justin MasonPG45.042.94.221.614.249.512.82.51.46.7
Elijah MillsapSG51.545.89.521.613.556.429.93.01.024.5
Marquis GilstrapSF52.949.39.419.29.043.825.31.62.821.6
Landry FieldsSG/SF56.151.96.713.619.550.831.02.62.220.6
Tyler SmithSG/SF61.757.35.513.522.980.419.82.81.114.0
Matt BouldinSG58.952.81.516.921.440.421.62.20.512.4
Scottie ReynoldsPG47.654.41.918.221.851.526.52.80.47.8
Omar SamhanC58.955.213.712.77.143.130.60.87.924.5
Andrew OgilvyC57.950.810.416.28.277.428.52.56.018.5
Tommy Mason-GriffinPG53.149.31.519.728.924.623.41.40.07.8
Magnum RollePF/C54.151.313.115.75.838.324.11.46.918.2
Jerome RandlePG61.355.61.422.223.732.326.61.20.05.5

In case it’s unclear, the stats are as follows (from left to right): true shooting percentage (TS%), effective field goal percentage (eFG%), offensive rebounding rate (ORB%), turnover rate (TOV%), assist rate (AST%), free throw rate (FTR), usage (USG%), steal rate (STL%), block rate (BLK%), and defensive rebounding rate (DRB%).

UPDATE (5:04 PM CST): For the sake of convenience, I’ll be updating this post with periodic pre-draft chatter.

UPDATE (7:22 PM CST):

  • Per Jeff Caplan of ESPN Dallas, the Mavs received some good offers for Rodrigue Beaubois, but they weren’t persuasive enough: “‘We’ve had some unusually attractive offers for Roddy,’ Nelson said. But, nothing that would change the Mavs’ stance. ‘Roddy’s not going anywhere,’ Nelson said.”

UPDATE (8:00 PM CST):

  • A nice little video from the Mavs’ official site showing off the pre-draft War Room.

UPDATE (9:00 CST):

  • Looks like the Mavs may have made their way into the first round after all. According to Marc Stein, the Memphis Grizzlies selected South Florida’s Dominique Jones with the 25th pick for the Mavs, who bought the pick. Check out his Draft Express profile here.

They Smell Like the Future: Chas McFarland

Posted by Rob Mahoney on June 22, 2010 under Commentary | Read the First Comment

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images.

Wake Forest Senior
7’0”, 225 lbs (Combine measurements)
23 years old
Center
Projection: Second rounder/undrafted

Chas McFarland was a serviceable component for Wake, but in the pros? He’s an exchangeable part. Easily exchangeable, in fact; Chas is a nail in a bucket full of them, and while he can likely do his job as well as any of those other nails, I see no reason to choose him over all the rest. It’s an odd thing to say for a guy with McFarland’s size, but nothing in Chas’ game really stands out.

Now, if the Mavs liked what they saw from McFarland in workouts, think he could potentially fit with the team in a minimal role, and want to sign him as an undrafted free agent? Take the shot. I have no qualms with a team taking a closer look at a legit seven-footer, even if they didn’t show a lot of flash in college. Reliable bigs are hard enough to come by that they’re due the proper diligence when they come along, and McFarland could theoretically be such a player. The evidence just isn’t there to support it, from the tape to the stat sheet and back.

Even at a basketball institution like Wake, there was a lot working against Chas. With his minutes and role, he wasn’t really put in a position to show off his skills, so he didn’t. That’s not entirely his fault, but it’s also at least partially indicative of the type of player we’re looking at: a pedestrian collegiate role player that can fill a few holes in the pros. Despite his size, McFarland wasn’t a particularly effective rebounder or efficient scorer. There’s no reason to believe he’s going to be markedly better at either of those things in the NBA, even if he does have pro center’s frame.

There’s nothing wrong with what McFarland is, honestly. He could be a serviceable NBA big, even if he has no potential to explode onto the scene. That could be worthy of the pick alone, particularly if the Mavs are desperate to put names on the depth chart. I know how little sense drafting for need makes at this stage in the draft, but if there’s little left on the board and the Mavs are desperate for another center, why not? Even if Dallas selects McFarland in a blind grab among the number of others like him, he could still work out.

2009-2010 Traditional Per Game and Per 40 Minute Stats:

PTSREBASTTOBLKFG%3FG%
Per Game7.27.00.81.91.2.446.000
Per 4011.711.31.33.11.9------

2009-2010 Per Possession Stats (Offense):

TS%eFG%ORB%TO%AST%FTRUSG%
49.444.59.923.76.075.318.4

2009-2010 Per Possession Stats (Defense):

STL%BLK%DRB%
1.04.618.9

Other People:

Jonathan Givony, Draft Express: “Offensively, McFarland is a traditional, inside oriented 7-foot center, which is somewhat of a rarity these days. He’s not afraid to throw his big body around inside, as he’s a fairly active player who can make good things happen for his team when he’s dialed in and managing to keep mistakes to a minimum. McFarland is not what you would call an overly skilled player with his back to the basket, but he’s regardless a nice target to have as a finisher on pick and roll plays and simple cuts to the rim, as he’s got a wide body, good hands and possesses reasonably soft touch. He draws fouls at a very nice rate, converts his free throws on solid (72%) percentages, and shows some signs of a spot-up 15-footer or a turnaround jumper in the post, although neither can be relied on consistently just yet…Defensively, McFarland can be a presence at the college level with his excellent size and high motor, but is likely to be considered a liability on this end of the floor when stacked up against most NBA prospects. His fundamentals here are not ideal, as he tends to lose his focus easily after falling asleep on plays and give his man deep position in the post. On top of that, he doesn’t show great explosiveness contesting shots around the basket and lacks the lateral quickness to be effective stepping away from the paint. He’s fairly foul prone in turn, which tends to limit his minutes in certain contests. On the plus side, he is a solid rebounder on a per-minute basis due to the energy with which he plays.”

Supplementary Materials:

Video evidence of how much opposing fans appreciate McFarland’s hustle and game.

Stats courtesy of Draft Express and Stat Sheet.