Posted by Rob Mahoney on October 26, 2009 under Previews | 
This is a part of the multi-part season preview, Once More, With Feeling. To read an explanation, click here. To read Act I (the Network preview), click here.
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Dean Oliver, in his book Basketball on Paper, isolated four factors that determine NBA success:
- Shooting
- Rebounding
- Turnovers
- Free throws
That’s it. An entire game of nuance and complexities boiled down to four bullet points.
Of course it’s never really that simple; behind these four headings lies each team’s offensive and defensive numbers boiled into a few metrics. They’re a step beyond your run-of-the-mill counting statistics, but still a bit of a reach from your more advanced measures. But they give tremendous insight into the particular successes of a basketball team, and they’re well worth your attention.
Let’s break it down, now.
Original photo by Tim Heitman/NBAE via Getty Images.
Shooting
You’ll find that Oliver’s four factors are determined on an offense vs. defense basis. So when I say shooting, what I (and Oliver) actually mean is the comparative shooting success between a team and their opponent.
In terms of their own shooting, the Mavs are certainly above average, but not quite elite (.504 effective field goal percentage or eFG%, 11th league-wide, .004 better than league average). The culprits of a normally potent’s offense decline into near-mediocrity? Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard. Dirk and Josh are good scorers and efficient scorers, but their reliance on two-point jump shots is impossible to ignore when calculating effective field goal percentage, a measure that weighs three pointers appropriately with their additional value. When your primary offensive weapons are shooting jumpers, their eFG just won’t measure up to the league’s premier interior or 3-point shooting outfits.
Keeping the Mavs afloat were the dunkers, Erick Dampier, James Singleton, and Ryan Hollins, and the three point shooters, Jason Terry and Jason Kidd.
In theory, new additions Shawn Marion and Drew Gooden would seem to fit right into that bunch. But their affect on the team’s eFG may be much more difficult to quantify. Shawn Marion was a dynamo during his time in Phoenix, with his eFG topping at .561. But much has happened since Marion’s run-and-gun days, and though Rick Carlisle and the Mavs are vowing to push the pace more than ever this year, it’s a line we’ve heard many times in the recent past. The good news is that last year’s much less effective Marion still managed a .491 mark, which matches J.J. Barea and bests Josh Howard.
Gooden, on the other hand, has posted a much lower career eFG (.474 compared to Marion’s .511), but may be poised for a bump. The only time in Gooden’s career where he has played alongside an above average playmaker was his time in Cleveland. The passing prowess of LeBron James brought Gooden’s eFG all the way up to .511. Jason Kidd shares James’ penchant for assists, and his helpful passes (along with some skilled teammates to relieve defensive pressure) will likely give Gooden more open looks around the basket than he’s ever had before. Hopefully that would at least shoot him in Damp’s direction in terms of eFG, but I’d settle for something right around last year’s team average of .504.
In terms of shooting defense, the Mavs were better than you might think (.493 eFGA, 10th, .007 better than league average). We’ll find the true source of the Mavs’ defensive woes in other areas, but in terms of forcing opponents into difficult shots, the Mavs weren’t too shabby. Though the now departed Antoine Wright’s eFG allowed last season was actually better than Marion’s, the Mavs hope that familiarity with the system as well as his teammates will help return Marion’s production to its previous highs. That isn’t a misguided notion; though familiarity and comfort level matter a great deal on the offensive end, they’re an absolute necessity for operating effectively in a defensive system. Marion needs to know where to rotate and when, and that’s a tough thing to do when the only constant in your life is Marcus Banks. Shawn Marion and Josh Howard are the keys defensively, and if the Mavs are going to transform into a top-notch defensive squad, the improvement will have to come on the wings. If not, there will be nothing to offset Jason Kidd’s lead feet or the Mavs’ lack of help-side shot blocking, and we’re looking at yet another year of average-ish defense.
Photo by Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images.
Rebounding
The Mavs are not a good offensive rebounding team (.266 offensive rebounding percentage or ORB%, 16th, .001 worse than the league average). It’s an ugly truth that comes along with playing a perimeter-oriented power forward, talented though he may be; If Dirk is fading away at the elbow, he’s not going to be in position to hit the boards.
That leaves the primary offensive rebounding duties to fall on the shoulders of the Mavs’ centers, and for the most part, they’ve stepped up to the task. Erick Dampier, Brandon Bass, and Ryan Hollins were among the team’s leaders in ORB% last season, and though they didn’t perform at All-NBA standards (actually, Dampier did nearly match Dwight Howard in this ORB%), each performed admirably when acting as a one-man boarding crew.
It’s no big. Offensive rebounds are tremendously important and help create possessions out of thin air, but it’s hardly a requirement for team success. Though the Blazers and Lakers were near the top of the league last year in offensive rebounding, six of the top fifteen teams didn’t even make the playoffs. The Magic and Spurs were worst and next to worst in the league, respectively. I don’t feel too bad about the Mavs’ mediocre ranking in that department for exactly this reason, and though we should probably expect more of the same in 2009-10, it’s hardly a reason to panic.
That’s only because the Mavs are a competent defensive rebounding team (.746 defensive rebounding percentage or DRB%, 8th, .013 better than average). Dirk more than makes up for his poor offensive rebounding numbers with his work on the defensive glass, and he’s helped by Erick Dampier and the best rebounding point guard in the game, Jason Kidd. This is another area where the additions of Shawn Marion and Drew Gooden will pay dividends, and if each rebounds at a rate equal to their career averages, they would immediately be two of the top three defensive rebounders on the team. And, if the preseason is any indication, Kris Humphries should be a contributor on the glass as well, supposing he can carve the minutes from Dampier, Gooden, and Nowitzki’s hands.
Even if the Mavs don’t improve in rebounding by rank, they should at the very least improve in terms of rebounding percentage.
Photo by the AP.
Turnovers
In the days before Jason Kidd’s return to Dallas, the Mavs were a low assist, low turnover franchise. It got them all the way to the NBA Finals, and created a team ethic after the departure of Steve Nash. Typically, with the return of a true point guard comes the return of the high turnover numbers. Yet somehow, the Mavs have maintained their status as elite ball protectors despite Kidd’s sometimes reckless (yet effective!) passing style (.121 turnover percentage, 3rd, .016 better than league average).
That’s largely because Dirk, JET, and Josh Howard are all unusually careful with the ball. When your team’s (qualified) leaders in usage rate are also the most careful, that translates to some pretty impressive team numbers. Kidd can throw lobs and full-court bounce passes all he wants because at the end of the day, the Mavs’ big possession stars are handle the rock with care.
Now, if you’re an endless optimist, this might be the part where you turn away, cover your ears and eyes, and sing “LA-LA-LA-LA I CAN’T HEAR YOU.” Even though the Mavs low turnover numbers are worthy of your awe, their opponent’s almost equally low turnover rates are at the very least worthy of an exasperated sigh (.123, 25th, .010 worse than the league average). The Mavs are not very good at creating opportunities by forcing turnovers, and their lack of speed on the perimeter has brought on-ball pressure to a grinding halt. So much emphasis is put on staying in front of a man rather than trying to exploit him, and though that might be a necessity on a team that lacks a lockdown defender on the outside, it also results in a painfully low amount of opponent’s turnovers.
Though the addition of Shawn Marion (and, to a lesser extent, Quinton Ross) would theoretically improve upon this weakness, I’m not quite so optimistic. I do think that Marion will find success in Dallas, but it’s impossible to argue against the fact that he’s lost a step. And as Shawn gets older and older, his utility as a defender will certainly dwindle. I still think he’s a capable defender in many ways, but Marion has less athleticism to compensate for gambles, leaving in a position to play more “honest” defense than ever. If less aggressive perimeter defense translates to less forced turnovers, then Marion will likely fall in line with the more defensively conservative Mavs.
Photo by the AP.
Free throws
Dirk shoots jumpers. JET shoots jumpers. Josh Howard shoots jumpers. Jason Kidd, Tim Thomas, and Matt Carroll all shoot jumpers. Even Marion and Gooden dabble. That’s almost an entire offense predicated on successfully making jump shots, and while it’s not exactly conventional, it is successful.
That doesn’t mean we should expect many free throw attempts.
The Mavs are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the league in terms of percentage, but most fans probably wouldn’t know that because of just how rarely the Mavs go to the line (.224 free throw attempts per field goal or FTA/FG, 22nd, .012 worse than league average). That’s not likely to change in the Dirk Nowitzki era, barring the acquisition of a big-time offensively skilled center. And I’m pretty sure MFFLs stopped holding out hope for that years ago.
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Values for the Four Factors from Basketball-Reference.com.
Tags: 2009-2010 Season Preview, Brandon Bass, Dirk Nowitzki, Drew Gooden, Erick Dampier, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Josh Howard, Kris Humphries, Quinton Ross, Ryan Hollins, Shawn Marion
Posted by Rob Mahoney on under Commentary |
The Magic may have left the Mavs Gortat-less and alone, but they also gave Dallas back their midlevel exception. All of a sudden the Mavs have all kinds of options in terms of available players, though none is a clear fit, fulfills a startling need, or comes at a price tag deserving of their talent level. The player that epitomizes all three incompatibilities is Glen “Big Baby” Davis.
Davis is a restricted free agent, a term which Mavs fans should be all too familiar with. As such, any offer designed to swipe Davis out from Boston would require enough of a contractual obligation that the Celtics would be crazy to match it. We’re talking well more than Davis is actually worth here, the bane of the midlevel exception. If the Mavs use their MLE on Davis, it will not be the same apparatus the once locked up Chauncey Billups in Detroit and almost brought Marcin Gortat to Dallas. It will be a weapon of evil, the likes of which we’ve seen in the money owed Beno Udrih and DeSegana Diop. The Mavs would need to pledge the average salary to a well below average player (career 10.9 PER) just to get him out of Boston, and that’s a move I simply cannot advocate. Or even give a thumbs up to. Or even do anything but wince when I read about it.
Most of my hesitation comes from the fact that Davis hasn’t yet shown himself to be that great of a player. The Celtics likely wouldn’t have gotten past the Bulls or kept up with the Magic if not for Davis’ efforts, but in the playoffs he performed at a level far above reasonable expectations. It screamed outlier more than progress, an abnormally efficient stretch of games in which Baby probably made his next contract. His stats jumped almost across the board from the regular season to the playoffs. His efficiency actually increased along with his usage rate, which is pretty unusual for an undersized four shooting more midrange jumpers than ever. His turnover percentage dropped while his shooting percentages increased, resulting in the quality rotation big man we saw against Chicago and Orlando. But just because that Glen Davis was the last thing to flash before our eyes does not mean we should expect anything similar.
The problem with Glen Davis last season was that he had trouble making his presence on the floor a truly positive one. He worked well as rotation filler for a high-level team with few other options, but that’s a far cry from a super-sub worthy of almost $6 million per year. According to 82games.com, Davis logged a negative net production (player production - opponent counterpart production) at both center and power forward. It wasn’t close (-3.5 at center, -4.8 at power forward). For comparison’s sake, Brandon Bass, a player deemed not worthy of the full midlevel by the Mavs, registered a +5.7 at center and a +3.9 at power forward. That’s a pretty startling drop-off in bench production, and one that would be damn hard to justify from a salary perspective.
On top of that, just as an item of interest, 82games indicates that 100% of Davis’ field goals in the 2008-2009 regular season were assisted. It’d be nice to have players on the floor capable of creating their own shots, especially when Jason Kidd is resting comfortably on the bench.
The real hole in the Mavs’ rotation left by the departure of Brandon Bass and the sudden denial of Marcin Gortat is not power forward, but center. Shawn Marion is more than capable of playing power forward when Dirk goes to the bench, and both Kris Humphries and Ahmad Nivins are capable of filling in the gaps. But as of right now, Erick Dampier is the only real center worthy of minutes on the Mavs’ roster, unless Nathan Jawai is much better than he showed in his first summer league game. Gortat would have solved this problem, and even Bass would have been a viable option. But Glen Davis? Is Davis really the Mavs’ plan to fill out the minutes at center? Offensively, Big Baby is a hustle guy with delusions of having a jump shot. On defense, he’s still very short to play center despite having the weight to throw down in the post. I’m sure he’d work hard and make every foul count, but you don’t pay players of Davis’ ilk considerable dollars to play center poorly. Not when you have a choice, anyway.
These rumors of a potential interest in Big Baby continue to surface not because of skills, or fit, or value. If the Mavs do sign Glen Davis, they’ll be motivated by something far more powerful: Desperation. If the Mavs react to their front-court losses with a sense of panic, Davis could very well be on the receiving end of some serious cash.
