The Third Wave

Posted by Rob Mahoney on June 26, 2010 under Commentary, News | 3 Comments to Read

The 2010 free agent class is unprecedented in many ways. Never before has a group of athletic mercenaries been so thoroughly dissected, endlessly analyzed, and hotly anticipated. Once the shenanigans begin on July 1st, all sorts of fun will be had, as so many franchises across the league will y be either destroyed or reborn in a cleansing fire.

Now, pay close attention, because while everyone is paying attention to the glitter at the head of the class, plenty of interesting things will be going on at the tail. Players like LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are proven and invaluable, but the summer will also yield completely untested prospects: undrafted free agents. In a typical NBA off-season, that doesn’t mean much; occasionally a team may unearth a role player from the undrafted ranks, but even that only happens on the rarest of occasions. Yet the survivors of this year’s draft seem a bit different. There obviously aren’t any earth-shaking talents in the bunch, but there are a number of interesting players that are viable candidates not only for a Summer League roster, but perhaps a spot on the Legends or even more.

Obviously not all of those prospects are going to pick Dallas over all of their other suitors, but the early returns are promising. Despite a mini-report from Jeff Goodman of Fox Sports, a Twitter exchange between St. Mary’s center Omar Samhan and Mark Cuban indicates that Samhan will indeed be a part of the Mavs’ Summer League team. Harvard point guard Jeremy Lin is also tabbed as a part of the fun. That’s a hell of a start, especially since Rodrigue Beaubois and Dominique Jones will headline. It should be interesting to see how the rest of the Vegas roster turns out.

Unfortunately, the Mavs have to do without a number of players they had expressed a clear interest in.

There are plenty of prospects still out there (Mikhail Torrance, Charles Garcia, Mac Koshwal, Aubrey Coleman, etc.), but the demand for these players is clear. By now, I’m sure the appropriate calls have already been placed. That makes the process less of a selection and more of a waiting game. The Summer League roster should be assembled in about a week’s time, which doesn’t leave much time for anticipation. Still, it’s worth keeping tabs on the unclaimed third round draftees over the next few days.

They Smell Like the Future: The 11th Hour

Posted by Rob Mahoney on June 24, 2010 under Commentary | Be the First to Comment

Draft day is upon us. Although the events of this week make moving up in the draft a costly proposition, there’s still an outside chance the Mavs will move up in the second round or even into the late first. Regardless, there should be an interesting prospect of some kind on the board when the Mavs are finally on the clock with the 50th pick. Here are all of the draft previews featured here over the last few weeks (in alphabetical order):

Trevor Booker – PF, Clemson
Aubrey Coleman
– SG, Houston
Sherron Collins – G, Kansas
Charles Garcia – PF, Seattle
Luke Harangody – F, Notre Dame
Mac Koshwal – PF/C, DePaul
Sylven Landesberg – SG, Virginia
Chas McFarland – C, Wake Forest
Art Parakhouski – C, Radford
Dexter Pittman – C, Texas
Jon Scheyer – G, Duke
Donald Sloan – PG, Texas A&M
Mikhail Torrance – PG, Alabama
Greivis Vasquez – G, Maryland
Michael Washington – PF, Arkansas
Brian Zoubek – C, Duke

If the pre-draft buzz is to be believed, Vasquez and Torrance could actually be gone by the end of the first round, with Zoubek not far behind them. Booker should also be out of the question by the time pick no. 50 rolls around, meaning that it’s extremely unlikely that Dallas will be able to draft a player that’s NBA-ready.

Feel free to peruse the per-possession stats of all of the previewed prospects (and all of the players the Mavs have worked out that weren’t previewed) in the chart below. You can sort by any of the listed measures, or classify by position to compare against the rest of the crop.

PlayerPOSTS%eFG%ORB%TO%AST%FTRUSG%STL%BLK%DRB%
Jon ScheyerPG/SG57.250.22.211.525.841.623.12.60.68.4
Art ParakhouskiC58.658.415.614.07.365.827.90.96.023.6
Charles GarciaPF53.149.09.722.08.475.834.90.82.924.9
Greivis VasquezPG/SG54.849.63.818.435.231.330.52.81.010.2
Dexter PittmanC63.865.416.520.45.063.024.51.08.915.3
Sylven LandesbergSG53.047.34.914.522.236.030.11.50.913.3
Luke HarangodySF/PF55.150.58.210.611.835.131.90.82.124.1
Brian ZoubekC62.663.821.621.89.755.317.72.14.024.4
Mikhail TorrancePG59.352.51.119.533.644.925.61.50.811.9
Trevor BookerPF54.953.310.014.417.347.324.82.44.620.4
Mac KoshwalPF/C55.054.411.920.715.348.228.13.32.820.9
Chas McFarlandC49.444.59.923.76.075.318.41.04.618.9
Michael WashingtonPF54.850.79.115.96.362.924.81.45.018.1
Mouhammed FayeSF/PF53.651.28.416.17.934.523.51.42.717.3
Donald SloanPG55.249.62.315.616.745.327.11.10.19.9
Matt JanningSG51.647.21.814.820.133.125.72.70.511.5
Aubrey ColemanSG51.5466.310.215.644.434.14.00.415.6
Devan DowneyPG51.345.81.616.823.431.534.64.50.09.3
Courtney FortsonPG48.340.74.724.224.250.935.42.30.512.8
Derrick CaracterPF59.857.41122.29.045.527.52.03.621.7
Sherron CollinsPG/SG55.850.60.817.624.331.723.31.80.15.6
Ryan ThompsonSG55.547.94.014.116.152.424.01.80.911.1
Jeremy LinPG62.657.13.421.230.968.226.84.43.612.9
Justin MasonPG45.042.94.221.614.249.512.82.51.46.7
Elijah MillsapSG51.545.89.521.613.556.429.93.01.024.5
Marquis GilstrapSF52.949.39.419.29.043.825.31.62.821.6
Landry FieldsSG/SF56.151.96.713.619.550.831.02.62.220.6
Tyler SmithSG/SF61.757.35.513.522.980.419.82.81.114.0
Matt BouldinSG58.952.81.516.921.440.421.62.20.512.4
Scottie ReynoldsPG47.654.41.918.221.851.526.52.80.47.8
Omar SamhanC58.955.213.712.77.143.130.60.87.924.5
Andrew OgilvyC57.950.810.416.28.277.428.52.56.018.5
Tommy Mason-GriffinPG53.149.31.519.728.924.623.41.40.07.8
Magnum RollePF/C54.151.313.115.75.838.324.11.46.918.2
Jerome RandlePG61.355.61.422.223.732.326.61.20.05.5

In case it’s unclear, the stats are as follows (from left to right): true shooting percentage (TS%), effective field goal percentage (eFG%), offensive rebounding rate (ORB%), turnover rate (TOV%), assist rate (AST%), free throw rate (FTR), usage (USG%), steal rate (STL%), block rate (BLK%), and defensive rebounding rate (DRB%).

UPDATE (5:04 PM CST): For the sake of convenience, I’ll be updating this post with periodic pre-draft chatter.

UPDATE (7:22 PM CST):

  • Per Jeff Caplan of ESPN Dallas, the Mavs received some good offers for Rodrigue Beaubois, but they weren’t persuasive enough: “‘We’ve had some unusually attractive offers for Roddy,’ Nelson said. But, nothing that would change the Mavs’ stance. ‘Roddy’s not going anywhere,’ Nelson said.”

UPDATE (8:00 PM CST):

  • A nice little video from the Mavs’ official site showing off the pre-draft War Room.

UPDATE (9:00 CST):

  • Looks like the Mavs may have made their way into the first round after all. According to Marc Stein, the Memphis Grizzlies selected South Florida’s Dominique Jones with the 25th pick for the Mavs, who bought the pick. Check out his Draft Express profile here.

They Smell Like the Future: Aubrey Coleman

Posted by Rob Mahoney on under Commentary | Read the First Comment

Photo by Icon SMI.

Houston Senior
6’4”, 200 lbs.
22 years old
Shooting guard
Projection: Second rounder/undrafted

The last thing the Mavs need is another undersized shooting guard, and Aubrey Coleman doesn’t exactly help his case with his high-volume approach. Coleman was a big fish in a small pond (well, one of the biggest ponds in the country if you want to be technical about it, but you know what I mean), but on the NBA stage, his scoring talents would be marginalized. He’s not quite efficient enough to make the most out of limited scoring opportunities just yet, meaning Coleman could turn out to be a Willie Green clone. Even if Willie has managed to hang around in the NBA and make a few bucks, that’s not meant as a compliment. But he could also turn out to be Marcus Thornton-esque, which would be pretty fun.

There’s only so much room in the league for these types of scorers, particularly those that haven’t developed a consistent jumper. The fact that Coleman was the nation’s leading scorer matters a great deal, but so does his level of competition in Conference USA. That’s more of a qualifier than an asterisk, but it needs to be said. NBA GMs often seem reluctant to experiment with fringe NBA players from smaller college programs, but I do think Coleman has talent worth investigating. There doesn’t seem to be enough interest in Aubrey to warrant a draft selection (even at 50), but if Dallas is looking for a perimeter scorer that could be useful down the road, Coleman deserves a proper look.

Plus, he’s not a bad defender. His height puts a limit on his defensive impact as a pro, but he’s actually quite relentless. He rebounds very well, he works hard, and he plays like anything but a shot-eating prima donna.

Some of his offensive tendencies are a bit of a turn-off though, and I don’t think Coleman is quite ready to be an NBA role player. He’s going to come into the league with the same inefficient approach that hindered his statistical excellence at Houston, and while having more scoring threats on the floor could give his shooting percentage and turnovers a healthy bump, you can’t change a player like Coleman overnight. He needs time to work on his game with a professional team, but not necessarily the Mavs. That’s why the D-League or a European team are likely the best option for Coleman’s immediate future, at least until NBA types can properly gauge his abilities against quality competition.

2009-2010 Traditional Per Game and Per 40 Minute Stats:

PTSREBASTTOSTLFG%3FG%
Per Game25.67.42.62.32.7.425.317
Per 4027.78.02.82.52.9------

2009-2010 Per Possession Stats (Offense):

TS%eFG%ORB%TO%AST%FTRUSG%
51.546.06.310.215.644.434.1

2009-2010 Per Possession Stats (Defense):

STL%BLK%DRB%
4.00.415.6

Other People:

Joe Treutlein, Draft Express: “Coleman’s saving grace is the contributions he makes on the boards and on the defensive end, where he plays with high intensity consistently, putting his physical tools to use to disrupt the opposition. He approaches the game with a high motor in general, and his offensive problems appear to be more about not having much familiarity with team basketball than him being selfish. Coleman lacks a significant amount of high-level experience, as he did not play much basketball in high school, went to a junior college, and then played in an extremely loose system under Tom Penders at Houston.”

Draft Express: “Now, Coleman is on the cusp of getting the chance to do that on a nightly basis. Regardless of where he lands though, the player who didn’t know a thing about basketball except how to play hard, isn’t going to suddenly change the approach that has taken him this far. ‘When I first started out I made my mark because I was a hustle guy who never stopped running and that caught the coach’s eye,’ he said. ‘It shows that if you put your mind to it you can do it. I’m not where I want to be yet, I want to rise higher and higher and show people that I’m one of the best players in the nation, not just because of my scoring either.’”

Joe Treutlein, Draft Express: “Coleman’s offensive game starts with his outstanding handle and creativity attacking off the dribble, showing a complete repertoire of moves and the instincts to meld them all together. Coleman’s first step is not overwhelming, but he frequently manages to create separation at the second level either by changing speeds, changing directions, using an advanced move to get his man off balance, or some combination of all three. At the basket, Coleman is extremely aggressive in seeking out contact, and elevates pretty well around the rim, where he is a very good finisher at this level. His size poses some problems projecting to the NBA, though, where he could have a harder time finishing against weakside defenders, while opponents may also be less likely to foul him. Coleman could definitely help himself by working on his floater in this regard, as it would make him a more dynamic threat finishing in the lane if it were a more reliable weapon.”

Supplementary Materials:

Stats courtesy of Draft Express and Stat Sheet.