The Dallas Mavericks, without even the slightest hesitation, have now executed the easiest and most predictable item on their off-season agenda. According to Brad Townsend of the Dallas Morning News (and as confirmed by team release), a four-year contract extension for Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle is now complete, removing even the slightest possibility that such a brilliant basketball mind could somehow stray from Dallas.

Calls don’t come much easier than this one; there’s only a small cut of NBA coaches who make a tangibly positive impact on their team’s play, and Carlisle happens to be one of them. While many coaches are tempted by the safety of formula, Carlisle finds — and ultimately succumbs to — allure in flexibility. Consistent roles are among the great red herrings of professional basketball, and its to Carlisle’s credit that he’s dispensed with that farce and pushed for basketball players to be basketball players, without worry or need for self-defeating promises. I’m sure many in the NBA would feel safe in knowing that their position on a particular team is never questioned, but Carlisle’s rotational philosophy is empowered by freedom.

If sitting a scorer for the sake of defense is called for, he does it. If playing his starting center just 12 minutes a night gives his team the best chance to win, he won’t hesitate. If an oddly constructed zone defense makes the most sense for his defensive personnel, he’ll thwart convention. Carlisle isn’t just valuable because he makes the right moves, but because he has the audacity to attempt all of the moves. He’s wrong plenty, but his desires to shift his lineups and manipulate the game aren’t at all misplaced, and his team is ultimately best served by his uncanny ability and unending willingness to change directions.

The Mavericks have a catch in Carlisle, and that’s no less true now than it was last June. He’s a premium commodity in a middle-heavy pool, and what he may lack in mystique, he more than makes up for in ingenuity.

Box Score — Play-by-Play — Shot Chart — Game Flow

Team	Pace	Off. Eff.	eFG%	FTR	ORR	TOR
Dallas	92.0	105.4	48.1	30.4	25.0	12.7
Oklahoma City		112.0	58.0	26.7	17.6	13.4

You know the drill. The Difference is a reflection on the game that was, with one bullet for every point in the final margin.

• You know what they say: If you’re going to lose a winnable series in four games, at least go out in an exhibition for one of the game’s most fantastically understated players, supplying the wood for his buzzsaw in what one can ultimately assume will be a daunting display of razor-focused finesse and craftsmanship. James Harden (29 points, 11-16 FG, 3-4 3FG, five rebounds, five assists) gets a raw deal because the public’s attention span can only extend to two star teammates at a time, but he’s far too good to be relegated as some distant third, and far too lethal to be ignored, even for a second. Dallas tried a number of coverages from a variety of directions in the fourth quarter, but none of it mattered — Harden attacked from the same point on the floor at the same angle, repeatedly bludgeoning the Mavericks with his own unique grace. And, as an important extension: credit upon credit to Scott Brooks, who afforded Harden the opportunities he needed without the slightest interference. Harden keyed the offense and out-dueled Dirk Nowitzki, all because his teammates agreed to spot up from the perimeter, because his coach saw an opening and exploited it, and because he’s a ridiculously difficult pick-and-roll cover.

• All of that said, Nowitzki (34 points, 10-25 FG, five rebounds, four assists) was far more than just another foil. This was the first game of the series in which Dirk flirted with last year’s disregard for the impossible; Serge Ibaka had done a terrific job of staying grounded on Nowitzki’s fakes in the first half, but once Dirk began nailing fadeaway after fadeaway after fadeaway, even that newfound discipline couldn’t spare him. Nowitzki finished with 34 points that felt more like 50. He created, built up, and sustained every bit of a lead Dallas could garner, and though he ultimately was a degree removed from the celestial form that guided the Mavs to last year’s title, one can only admire his performance, his poise, and his effort. It’s been a pleasure watching this man in action — in this season as in all seasons.
• I’m not sure this game provided any real ground for ingenuity aside from the fairly predictable revelation that giving the ball to Harden does great things for the OKC offense, but Rick Carlisle and Scott Brooks turned to some pretty strange lineups in their efforts to keep their respective teams humming. For the Thunder, I suspect most were fairly weirded out by the grouping of Harden, Russell Westbrook, Nick Collison, Derek Fisher, and Daequan Cook — a combination that would make shockingly little sense in a vast majority of basketball contexts, and posted a single-game defensive rating of 195.0. For Dallas, we saw more minor maneuvers; Jason Terry’s insertion into the starting lineup, the closing group consisting of Nowitzki, Jason Terry, Jason Kidd, Delonte West, and Shawn Marion, etc. Those strange brews will only be footnotes of footnotes of Dallas’ final bow, but as part of a fun, competitive game, they added some particular flavor.
• For the briefest moment, it looked as though Dallas’ ball movement had finally broken open the series. The Thunder defense was completely overloaded, and the Maverick shooters feasted from the weak side. Kidd was aggressive. Terry was creating. West, Vince Carter, and Ian Mahinmi were all part of something very real and, hopefully, very sustainable. Dallas finally saw the numbers for the code, and picked apart the Thunder with a startling precision.
  .
  And then, just as quickly as that barrage of three-pointers and impressive shot creation came, it vanished. It wasn’t just Harden that downed the Mavs; OKC completely rebooted their defense mid-stride, and once they cut off Dallas’ offensive access points, they were off to the second round.
• Shawn Marion posted up Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Collison, and Thabo Sefolosha, and completed a successful possession (with a made bucket, an assist, or a drawn foul) against each. Dallas finally went back to establishing Marion on the block, and although he did short a much-needed hook-runner-thing late, the fact that he was able to supply any shot creation along with his again outstanding defense was a gift. I remain convinced that Marion could have provided more of an offensive impact had he simply seen more opportunities in the post, perhaps to an extent that could have changed the outcome of the first two games of this series. I don’t aim to overblow one minor aspect of Dallas’ offense, but considering how fine the line has been in this series at times, it’s worth considering if even the most slight of offensive tweaks might have brought us to a different end. It wasn’t meant to be and we’ll never know for sure, but there was a bittersweetness in seeing Marion — even if he finished with just nine points — finally allowed to unleash the aspect of his game that stands out as the most profoundly weird and oddly consistent.
• Russell Westbrook finished with just 12 points on 3-of-12 shooting. Derek Fisher finished with 12 points on 5-of-6 shooting. I’m not sure I’m entirely comfortable with this alternate reality we’ve stumbled into.

Box Score — Play-by-Play — Shot Chart — Game Flow

Team	Pace	Off. Eff.	eFG%	FTR	ORR	TOR
Dallas	94.0	85.9	38.8	34.2	20.0	17.4
Oklahoma City		103.3	49.4	20.0	17.4	8.7

You know the drill. The Difference is a reflection on the game that was, with one bullet for every point in the final margin.

• With the Mavericks splattered on the Thunder’s windshield, it seems a more appropriate time than ever to reinforce just how limited Dallas’ half-court offense has been this season. This crew has managed to salvage just enough possessions for us to wonder if they’re still capable of more, and yet time and time again these Mavs trip into performances like this one: outings filled with bouts of lame, stagnant offense, designed to flow but caught in the mire. Dirk Nowitzki is a miraculous player, but the team so carefully propelled by its balance last season has very clearly caved in, leaving Nowitzki as the one self-standing tentpole to bear the weight of a drooping roster.
  .
  It’s all fun and games when the play action comes easy, but the virtues of extra passes and open shots don’t mean all that much when a team lacks the capability to consistently create such opportunities. Rick Carlisle has tried to find substitutes for the likes of J.J. Barea and Tyson Chandler, but ultimately failed to recreate the same perfect mix of ingredients that brought this same core their own slice of basketball immortality last June. Things could never be the same — not after all of the pieces Dallas lost, and after each of the team’s many additions subtly pushed the Mavs in a different direction. It’s no fault of the newcomers specifically, at least any more than it’s a fault of every Maverick; this was an experiment gone wrong, and though by nature of the process most eyes will turn to the experimenter himself in blame, every beaker and burner and unproductive big man played a part in not playing their part.
• I’ve been among Brendan Haywood’s more generous supporters, and even I’ve completely run out of excuses and justifications for his poor performance. Perhaps Haywood still holds value in the right context, but at the moment that context seems far too limited to justify his standing or his salary. He actively holds the team back in the vein of an end-of-the-road Erick Dampier, and though he’s only 32 years old, Haywood seems to have sufficiently worn through much of his NBA utility. Haywood has seen Ian Mahinmi and Brandan Wright — two very imperfect players — take their turn in the spotlight during the regular season, all while he settled in with unimpressive rebounding, far too unreliable defense, and slim offensive relevance. Now he seems to have fully completed his downswing; his play leaves more to be desired than I would have possibly imagined, and he shrivels not in the shadow of Mahinmi, Wright, or even Chandler, but in the context of useful basketball players in the most general sense.

• One particularly brutal wrinkle of Game 3: Even the Dirk-centric offense too was inefficient and ineffective. The Mavericks have a hard enough time winning games against quality teams when Nowitzki is playing great basketball, but on a night where he shot just 6-for-15 from the field, they didn’t really stand much of a chance. Much credit goes to Kendrick Perkins, Nick Collison, and Serge Ibaka for their fine defensive work, but regardless of precise cause, Dallas’ offense essentially forfeited.
• With 10:40 remaining in the fourth quarter, Derek Fisher pump faked a spot-up three-pointer, drove right past Vince Carter, and completed an uncontested layup. I wouldn’t say that possession was totally emblematic of the Mavs’ defensive performance, but it seemed par for the second-half misery form a Dallas perspective.
• I’ll also say this: While much of the half-court struggle on the offensive end was completely characteristic of this team, the Mavs did have uncharacteristically bad hands. Haywood, Mahinmi, Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, and Shawn Marion seemed particularly off their game in terms of catching passes in rhythm, a development that all but killed any semblance of ball movement that Dallas was able to muster. Good passes are highly dependent on timing, and although the Mavs had some opportunities to theoretically get looks at three-pointers or in the paint, they saw them swallowed by a Thunder defense that was quick to rotate upon first bobble.
• Shifting Marion over to defend Russell Westbrook at times proved to be a pretty fruitless endeavor; Westbrook “only” finished with 20 points on 19 shots, but he was still able to get the looks he wanted. That pull-up jumper has been such a consistent weapon for Westbrook, and honestly, when he’s hitting that shot reliably and still getting to the rim with any consistency, he’s a pretty impossible cover — even or a defender of Marion’s talents. For what it’s worth, I thought West has actually done a pretty decent defensive job on Westbrook in this series in general, but with players this talented and productive, sometimes that kind of defense just doesn’t mean a damn thing.
• It needs to be said again, and many times over: Oklahoma City’s defense was superb, largely because Ibaka, Perkins, and the team at large did such a splendid job of defending the rim. You may not know it from the final tally (Dallas officially shot 61.2 percent at the rim in this particular game, per Hoopdata), but Ibaka shaded most every foray into the paint when he was completely obliterating shot attempts. OKC leads the league in blocks for a reason, and if their defense is as consistent and exhausting as we saw in Game 3, the Thunder are going to have an exceptionally hard time losing a playoff series.
• I know there were such hopes for Brandan Wright’s role in this series, but even when he’s taken the floor, he’s failed to offer the Mavericks any kind of spark. Maybe Wright was daunted by the stage or the physicality, or maybe the Mavericks’ offense is simply in too much disarray to make use of his talents at the moment. But the lanes to the rim Wright is typically able to find were clogged up by OKC’s bigs, the rebounds went elsewhere, and the entire realm of defense seemed to pass him by. It’s fantastic that Dallas will be able to keep Wright for next season on an amazingly affordable salary, but he clearly wasn’t the x-factor-to-be many thought he might become under the playoff lights. Wright still has oodles of athletic potential, but the understanding of how to operate in tight space and manufacture opportunities just isn’t yet there.
• James Harden, even on a night where he converts just three of his 10 shots, makes basketball look so easy.
• Your lone Dallas highlight of the night. I’m sure it completely balances out a lopsided loss in what was hoped to be a series-turning win:

• The Thunder are so tremendously good at utilizing the secondary break — a stage of semi-transition that has long been good to the Mavericks as well. The only difference: Westbrook, Durant, and Harden all put so much pressure on opposing defenses in the initial transition stage that shooters are subsequently open almost as a default. OKC’s collective speed and finishing strength make defending the Thunder in transition a task requiring as many defenders — and as much immediate focus — as possible, and yet in those few occasions in which the initial break doesn’t end with a powerful dunk or a trip to the free throw line, we see the likes of Harden or Westbrook reverse the ball out to the perimeter for an open three or another cutter. It’s good basketball, and yet another reason that it behooves the Thunder to push the ball whenever possible.
• One more time: I have no idea why the West-Haywood pick and roll is or ever was a component of Dallas’ offense. What a mess.
• Much of this season has been about trying to fit Dallas’ new acquisitions into roles vacated by members of last year’s team. Vince Carter looked to be a nice, economical substitute for Caron Butler, while also serving as a double for a spot-up shooter like Peja Stojakovic. Haywood was to be the new Chandler, or maybe that was some combination of Wright and Mahinmi — more athletic finishers who could theoretically stretch the vertical plane in a similar way. And similarly, West was trumpeted as some amalgam of J.J. Barea and DeShawn Stevenson, which isn’t at all inaccurate given his skill set.
  .
  But here’s one of the problems with those dual comparisons: West may be as good of a defender as Stevenson and a capable penetrator in his own right, but standing in somewhat of a middle ground between those two players doesn’t necessarily make equipped to replace both. That ultimately proved costly to Dallas’ offense; West was simply never as obsessively focused with getting to the basket as Barea was, shifting the flow of the Maverick offense squarely to the perimeter. The problem isn’t that Dallas is a jump-shooting team, but that because of the lack of penetration partially attributable to Barea’s absence, the Mavs were never able to get the kinds of jump shots they wanted. Dallas needs more effective ball-handlers and better non-Nowitzki pick-and-roll threats going forward, and without those two things, well, Carlisle and his staff may need to restructure their entire offense.
• Before Jason Terry had officially logged even a second of game action, he had postured for the home crowd and drawn an offensive foul on Russell Westbrook during an inbound pass. That grand entrance boded well for JET’s energy, and upon his entry to the game, he really did make a difference in the flow and functioning of the Mavericks’ offense. Unfortunately, the impact of that energy soon waned, off-set by JET’s curious passing and noncommittal defense. There were to be no heroes in blue on this night, even the people’s champion.
• Durant finally finding some room to breathe in this series was inevitable, as even the most committed defenders slip from time to time. That certainly happened early in Game 3, not that Marion can entirely be blamed; Durant made some really slick off-ball cuts and curls to find open shots, and though Marion did his best to stay with him, there’s ultimately only so much that can be done to contest a good look from a player that tall, that long, and with a release that quick. From there, it was just Durant being Durant, and though the nature of Marion’s defense didn’t fundamentally change, the results were far more in line with what we normally expect from one of the most gifted scorers on the planet.
• Where on earth did Marion’s offense go? Whatever happened to Kidd or Carter operating from the post? Or the Terry-Mahinmi pick-and-roll? There were so many small elements of Dallas’ offense that disappeared entirely over the course of this series, to the point where the Mavericks seemed to be completely freewheeling at the time of their implosion. I highly doubt that those little bits of offense would have turned around a game like this one, but a little variety — even en route to demise — would have been nice, no?

Really fantastic work by Nike of tailoring a creative campaign to a fitting player. Dirk’s always been a dreamer.

Joon Kim is the author of NBA Breakdown, and its subsidiaries, Spurs Motion Offense and The Triangle Offense — a tree of sites dedicated to analyzing the NBA’s structural elements. He’ll be contributing periodically to The Two Man Game with video-based breakdowns, illustrating particular aspects of the Mavericks’ performance. You can follow Joon on Twitter: @JoonKim00.

Our minds are obsessed with recent history. The last memories we form about an event can dominate how we later relive those experiences: a good first date can be ruined by a bad kiss, or a relaxing vacation can be undone by a stressful return home.  With basketball it’s no different; regular season MVPs who falter in the postseason are labeled as chokers, and superstars who struggle but manage to hit clutch shots are remembered as heroes.

If we focus only on the end, the Mavericks seemingly created the looks necessary to win both games. Last year those shots came up heads, this year they’ve hit a stretch of tails.

However, the Mavericks shouldn’t return home regretting how they played at the end of their most recent game. The game was truly lost in a brutal 21-4 Thunder run lasting from the end of the first quarter through midway of the second. During that stretch, the Mavs weren’t locked down by a smothering Thunder defense. They were undone from within: over-dribbling, mental lapses, and the willingness to settle for jumpers all culminated in this possession:

In the initial play we see one pass made to Vince Carter, who isolates at the elbow. Carter dribbles at that spot for six seconds, attempting to survey the defense as James Harden cedes the entire baseline. The other Mavericks aren’t much help as none can decide where to spot up.  Carter’s pounding is finally broken up by Harden’s deflection. Now further from the basket at a worse angle, Carter eventually goes baseline, but with no available passing angles, Carter forces a shot behind his head over the contest of Nick Collison. The Mavericks secure the rebound with a new shot clock, but Jason Terry decides to launch a 30-foot contested three-pointer.

All was not lost during this lopsided Thunder run, and there remains a silver lining. The deep hole forced Carlisle to go to a three-guard lineup with Shawn Marion at the four and Dirk Nowitzki at the five.  The flow of the offense returned, but not in typical small ball fashion.  The offense was revived because Kendrick Perkins was forced to guard Dirk Nowitzki:

In the beginning of the clip, we notice the pace and aggression of the Mavs is noticeably higher. Jason Kidd’s misses a layup but the Mavericks gather the rebound. Dirk slides into the post and the ball is swung to Marion who feeds him. As Dirk sets up, Marion cuts and the other Mavs properly space the floor. Perkins gives Dirk just enough airspace to rise up for the jumper.

Again, in this clip, the Mavericks are attacking quickly. Dirk gets to the same spot and Kidd feeds him the ball. Having established the jumper, Dirk pump fakes Perkins, who bites hard. Nowitzki drives by and uses another pump fake to draw an and-one on Serge Ibaka.

Growing frustrated, Perkins commits an off-the-ball foul while attempting to deny Dirk:

The fast pace of the Mavericks finds Perkins uncomfortably matched up against Dirk again.  This time in transition, all the way out to the three point line:

Once again, Dirk uses a pump fake to get by Perkins leading to another and-one. It’s that simple.

The Thunder are a talented group, but they feature a jump-shot heavy half-court attack that can quickly turn south. The difference between being up or down two can be blamed on coin flips alone, but an improbable series win lies more in the Mavs ability to play a complete game than in any particular late-game fortune.

Box Score — Play-by-Play — Shot Chart — Game Flow

Team	Pace	Off. Eff.	eFG%	FTR	ORR	TOR
Dallas	94.0	105.3	44.9	40.5	27.3	12.3
Oklahoma City		108.5	48.5	58.2	17.9	16.0

You know the drill. The Difference is a reflection on the game that was, with one bullet for every point in the final margin.

• Basketball fans tend to see their teams as either the cursed or the ordained, but in reality every franchise is somewhere in between; whatever forces govern the seemingly random bouncing of the ball tend to slide in whichever direction they like, and as much as we’d like to pretend that there’s a real image to be discerned from the breaks of the game, doing so is akin to claiming that stars are drawn for the sake of constellation.
  .
  Performance is and will always be based in execution, but as Dallas has shown over the first two games of this series, sometimes that execution isn’t enough. It’s not sufficient to merely create opportunities; in the inevitable close games that come in a playoff run, the currency of those opportunities must be exchanged. They’re worth something in themselves, but only by utilizing those windows can Dallas — or  any team — attain something of more practical value. The Mavs are trying their damnedest to get more out of those crucial chances, but for the moment they’ve only (and admirably) managed to put themselves in a position to flip a coin. In that, Rick Carlisle and his team can’t be wholly disappointed that the flip keeps coming up tails.
  .
  Dallas, through late-game blunders and all, had their shots. They just weren’t the ordained this time around, and thus failed to make the most of their aforementioned opportunities. Dallas may have left the 2010-2011 season as conquering heroes, but the days of improbable comeback after improbable comeback and huge shot after huge shot appear gone. The magic has left from this Maverick world, with a departure only so sure as the inevitability of its return.

• This wasn’t a game decided by foul calls, but by free throws. Both teams got the benefit of the officiating crew’s quick whistles in the second half, to the point where the third quarter was ground down into a free-throw shooting contest — a development that actually aided the Mavericks’ efforts by bringing Loud City to a steady murmur. Yet that dynamic ultimately came to betray Dallas; the Thunder managed to remain competitive in the fourth quarter despite not making a single field goal in the final 4:52, per TNT, pitting the Mavs’ execution against sure makes from the charity stripe. That’s a tough battle to win, and though Dallas managed to come awfully close, it ultimately wasn’t to be.
• In a series that would be most naturally billed as a head-on collision between Dirk Nowitzki (31 points, 10-19 FG, six rebounds) and Kevin Durant (26 points, 5-17 FG, 10 rebounds, seven turnovers), I’ve been just as — if not more — captivated by the incredible play of Shawn Marion (15 points, 5-9 FG, eight rebounds, one unenviable defensive assignment) and Russell Westbrook (29 points, 10-21 FG, two assists). Nowitzki played wonderfully in Game 2 and Durant has 25.5 points per game and a particularly heroic shot to his name, but the sidekicks have simply played the more spectacular part in this series to date.
  .
  Marion has led the Mavericks in rebounding in both games thus far, scored 32 total points on just 23 shots, and also happens to be providing a master class on how to defend Kevin Durant. Apparently, it’s just that easy to hold the NBA’s scoring champ to 15-of-44 (34 percent) shooting from the field and an average of 4.5 turnovers per game; so long as you have an incredible wingspan, age-defying athleticism, phenomenal defensive instincts, tremendous technique, and a borderline illogical persistence, you too can replicate Marion’s performance. Just sterling work from an All-Defense candidate.
  .
  Westbrook, on the other hand, has been the Thunder’s saving grace in light of Marion’s shackling of Durant and James Harden’s fits of passivity. And, in pitch-perfect fashion: Westbrook is beating the Mavs without even masquerading as the pure  playmaker his critics demand that he be. Westbrook hasn’t been selfish by any means, but he’s dominating the game as a shot creator. He’s creating looks for others by way of passing and penetration, but the bulk of his damage is done by getting to the rim, getting to the line, and elevating on — as Matt Devlin did an excellent job of highlighting on TNT’s broadcast — those idyllic pull-up jumpers. This isn’t even Westbrook at his best, and yet he’s put up more points in this series than any other player, and anchored his team’s efforts in two keynote victories.

Joon Kim is the author of NBA Breakdown, and its subsidiaries, Spurs Motion Offense and The Triangle Offense — a tree of sites dedicated to analyzing the NBA’s structural elements. He’ll be contributing periodically to The Two Man Game with video-based breakdowns, illustrating particular aspects of the Mavericks’ performance. You can follow Joon on Twitter: @JoonKim00.

For the most part, every NBA team runs the same basic actions: screens, pick and rolls, and isolations. And why shouldn’t they?   Basketball is ultimately a simple sport - one team puts the basketball in the hoop more than the other and that team wins. While this is true of most teams, the Dallas Mavericks lie beyond the rabbit hole — where basketball conventions are twisted and your expectations must be set aside.

Last May, the Mavericks found themselves going up against the irrepressible potential of a youthful Thunder squad. The Thunder found themselves facing a team that wasn’t measured by its potential, but the pain of past experience. Now the Mavs find themselves facing a surging championship contender filled with bitter experiences of their own. While the teams may be the same, it’s difficult to say where this Mavs team lies. Their resolve has been softened with a championship, and those championship pieces are playing (or or currently “auditioning”) for other teams.

Yet in a season full of inconsistency, the Mavericks have found the best of themselves when facing the Oklahoma City Thunder. Perhaps this isn’t such a surprise. The orthodox attack of the Thunder may be more susceptible than most when facing the unique methods the Mavs regularly employ. Though time passes and the pieces have changed, the Mavericks embracing of unconventional methods could be the key to holding the Thunder down for one more year.

DEFENSE

The Mavericks are fairly well known for being one of the first teams to truly embrace the matchup 2-3 zone.

Even with the OKC playing a small lineup full of three-point shooters, the zone entices the Thunder into taking the most inefficient shot in the NBA: an off-the-dribble, 45-degree angle, 13-foot jumper from the left side of the court.

FREE FROM TRADITIONAL ROLES

While Westbrook may not be a traditional point guard, the rest of the Thunder play to conventional roles. The Mavericks cast aside those familiar roles long ago.

Here we see the small forward screen for the power forward to come out to the perimeter. Once there, the seven foot Dirk Nowitzki looks to feed the six-foot-six Vince Carter in the post. The power forward then spots up for three as the small forward goes to work.

MIND GAMES

The Mavericks constantly exploit expectations by using quick hitting decoys to deceive the defense.

In this clip, the primary action looks like an entry into Vince Carter that turns into a dribble hand-off. Usually this would lead to a side screen and roll, but the Mavs are decoying to set up the real action. As the hand-off occurs, Jason Terry fakes towards a back pick and Carter cuts across to the weak side. The dribble hand-off combined with the fake back pick allow Terry to freely catch the ball on the move off a screen set by Ian Mahinmi. The JET flys by the close-out of Kendrick Perkins for two off the goaltend.

Here the Mavericks show a spread pick and roll with Terry and Dirk looking to spot up on the weak side.

As the pick and roll occurs, Dirk and Terry don’t quite spot up at the three point line. Instead, Dirk faces the baseline to set up a down screen for Terry. With the Thunder defense temporarily out of position, Terry receives the ball and the original roles are reversed: Dirk and Terry go into a pick and pop, while Delonte West and Carter spot up on the weak side. Dirk gets the ball and drives hard to acquire deeper position below the elbow. He passes out for a repost and releases his patented one-legged-fadeaway-stepback jumper.

After getting the ball to Terry, JET looks at Dirk as Jason Kidd fakes a cut towards the baseline. Kidd steps back for the ball and Terry goes to set a down screen. Dirk comes off the screen towards Kidd then fakes cutting across the lane. Nowitzki quickly turns back to set a screen for Terry leaving Perkins out of help position. Terry can’t get to the basket but the ball is eventually swung to Dirk at the elbow (one of his preferred spots) with the whole left side cleared out. Dirk takes advantage of the space after a fake and (against the normal conventions) knocks down the most inefficient jump shot in the NBA.

DIRK.

Any attempt to buck basketball conventions begins and ends with the unique versatility of the Mavericks star power forward. Despite being a seven-footer, Dirk is a deadly three point shooter.

Being a 38-percent career three point shooter, the mere act of spotting up neutralizes the shot blocking threat of Serge Ibaka.

But Dirk doesn’t just affect the defense by being a simple spot-up shooter. He can screen both off and on the ball.

Dirk can also run the occasional pick and roll:

And like any superstar in the NBA, Dirk is expected to be able to create his own shot.

In one last clip, we see Dirk’s total versatility put to use:

The play begins with the Mavericks faking a cross screen for Dirk to go to the post. He step fakes the cross screen then heads up towards a waiting down screen set by Brendan Haywood. The down screen forces Perkins to switch; with the threat of Dirk’s catch and shoot ability in mind, Perkins aggressively denies Nowitzki. But this is no problem, Dirk uses Perkins aggression against him by simply setting a ball screen. During the screen, Dirk seals Perkins and acquires position in the free throw area. Despite the position, Dirk is patient and continues to move the ball. Kidd holds the ball long enough to momentarily draw Perkins to help position, allowing Dirk some new found space. Nowitzki takes it inside, and despite the blocked layup, Dirk gathers the miss and displays the asset that first made him truly unique: the soft shooting touch that began his hall of fame career.

The inconsistent play of the Mavericks has placed them in the narrative as a team in the role of underdogs. For a team in the middle of an inescapable transition, the Mavericks can win by doing what they’ve always done before: ignoring traditional conventions by taking comfort in their unique approach. As they say, the more things change…

Box Score — Play-by-Play — Shot Chart – Game Flow

Team	Pace	Off. Eff.	eFG%	FTR	ORR	TOR
Dallas	94.0	104.3	50.0	32.1	27.0	14.4
Oklahoma City		105.3	51.9	25.3	22.0	13.8

You know the drill. The Difference is a reflection on the game that was, with one bullet for every point in the final margin.

• This should hardly come as a surprise given the final margin, but games really don’t get more balanced than this one. Both teams saw their superstars swell in the spotlight, escaping heroically from the mire of their earlier struggles. The top-notch defenders present didn’t disappoint; Serge Ibaka and Shawn Marion both came up with tremendous play after tremendous play, and the craftier defenders on both teams — Jason Kidd and James Harden — managed to get deflections and key defensive action from off the ball. The rebounding profiles of both teams came to a curious middle. The Mavericks somehow managed to get to the line more often than the Thunder — an incredible feat considering that OKC ranks tops in the league in free throw rate — but also turned the ball over more often than their opponents — an equally incredible feat considering that OKC also ranks last in the league in turnover rate. The elite team and the inconsistent team played their way to a standstill, and Kevin Durant broke the silence with a terrific shot in the face of perfectly played defense.
  .
  One could theoretically chalk up a Maverick loss to any number of factors (oddly fragile late-game performance, Dirk Nowitzki’s uncharacteristic turnovers, OKC’s fantastic denial of Jason Terry, a random Ibaka three-pointer, etc.), but I’m not sure I see the point in that kind of exercise. Rick Carlisle and his staff will look to make changes based on Dallas’ many distinct shortcomings, but none of those individual flaws provided a reason for loss so much as the slightest opportunity for one. The Mavs played well. They got real, consistent value from a wide net of contributors, largely forced the Thunder into difficult shots, and managed to negate some of their opponent’s greatest strengths. But someone had to lose this game, and the fact that it ended in a coin flip made the result no less cruel, and such assignments of blame no less arbitrary.
  .
  That final moment was the only time the game’s dynamic took any decisive shift whatsoever, and even then, only a ticking clock was able to provide the impetus for such a change. Otherwise, these two teams would have traded blows and well-executed sets and spectacular shots into eternity, with no victor save any lucky enough to be a part of the process. Those of us on this side of the fourth wall certainly were, and with any luck, will continue to be so fortunate.
  .
  But all individual games must end, just as this series will eventually succumb to its own lamentable finality. In the meantime, the stage has been set for a fantastic arrangement of call and return — supposing that the Mavericks manage to maintain even a remotely similar form in the games to come. Let’s hope that isn’t such a naive assumption in hindsight, and that those engaged by the possibility for highly entertaining basketball aren’t made to be fools. We know what the Mavs are capable of, and sadly, we’ve come to know how little the Mavs are sometimes capable of. This matchup seems to bring out the best in them and the best in a beautiful game, but if this bittersweet day and this nearly canceled season haven’t taught us to take nothing for granted, I’m not sure what in this sport possibly could.
  .
  I honestly have no idea what’s coming, nor the slightest clue of how to conclusively use the information we have to even take a shot in the dark. Yet if nothing else, we have this night of near-makes and infinite possibility. The Thunder and Mavs won’t play again until Monday, and in that lapse we have the invaluable and immaculate gift of tomorrow. For now — even if not for a second more — there are no disappointments. There is only the promise of greater basketball to come, without worry for letdown or regression.
  .
  So rest up. Tomorrow’s a big day.

No series in this year’s playoffs better illustrates the gulf between winning and winnable; the Dallas Mavericks begin their postseason journey against a familiar foe, and although they hold the potential for a hugely significant upset, there is an auspicious lack of logical explanation as to why the series might actually unfold along those terms. Based on the evidence we have, we can’t write the Mavs off completely, and yet the Thunder are simply too good to not be penciled in for the second round on the basis of their far steadier — and noticeably more superior — play on both ends of the court. The playoffs always bring the potential for a reset and subsequent upset, but we can’t rightly expect either without even the slightest justification.

There’s reason to think that the Mavs might be competitive in this series, but we lack the magic bullet that could throw any predictions over the top. There’s a chorus for good reason; “Oklahoma City in six,” is the most reasonable outcome at this point, although there’s a distinct possibility of this series breaking in virtually any which way. We shouldn’t be surprised to see the Mavs push this to seven or lose in four; there are too many variables at work to have a good feel for how either team might play over the course of this series, leaving us with questions on questions and OKC’s far more convincing regular season exploits.

———-

Russell Westbrook and Scott Brook are the targets of a truly daunting amount of criticism, but make no mistake: it’s Dallas that enters this series as the unreliable entity that could spiral out of control at any moment. The Mavs may not have a ball-handler as unpredictable as Westbrook and don’t have the same alleged x-and-o deficit that supposedly plagues the Thunder, but Dallas has struggled to put together quarters of successful play on either end — much less a game against an elite opponent. Or, y’know, seven of ‘em.

Dallas’ offense was and is a mess, and although the structure and consistency of a playoff series could potentially help the Mavs find their bearings, they still need to put together a string of cohesive performances before they can even remotely be trusted. With James’ Harden’s absence and some inevitable end-of-season letdown, the Thunder have an alibi. We’ve seen the heights of their potential — a place of productivity and efficiency that the Mavericks can’t even hope to touch at this stage — and know that they ache to return to that place. Westbrook and Kevin Durant are brutally fierce competitors, wanting of little more than to rain fire and brimstone on the D/FW metroplex and sleep soundly on a bed of ashes. They know what they’re capable of, and they know what happened a season ago. All Oklahoma City is tasked with is tapping back into that discovered magic; Harden’s health can’t completely be taken for granted considering the violence of the hit he suffered, but otherwise the Thunder are merely calling back to an elite foundation that they crafted for themselves.

Dallas can’t say the same — at least in regard to their performance with this particular core in this particular season. Tyson Chandler is gone and so is the precedent; without the benefit of season-to-season rotational stability, we’re left guessing as to what these Mavs might be capable of, and still trying to understand how the loss of Chandler, J.J. Barea, DeShawn Stevenson, and Peja Stojakovic might fundamentally change the season’s result. The disarray of the regular season offers little in the way of explanatory evidence; through up and down and ebb and flow, all Dallas has done is effectively table judgment for the playoffs. They haven’t proven themselves as a stable offensive team, nor a consistent defensive one. They’re indisputable champions, but it’s unclear whether their gold has already begun to tarnish.

———-

It was mentioned briefly (and vaguely) above, but is worth hashing out in greater detail: the postseason affords the Mavs with not only the possibility for rest, but a chance to maximize the impact of Rick Carlisle and Dirk Nowitzki.

Carlisle is a wonderful strategist, but a chess player can’t exactly build an incremental attack when the rules and conditions of the game are constantly changing. As great as he is in adapting on the fly, Carlisle is a coach that thrives with the opportunity for thorough preparation; he’s wonderful at identifying and exploiting weakness, and the breathless pace of the now-completed regular season offered him little opportunity for such. His real technique comes out in the playoffs, when lineup manipulation is not only at a premium, but more functional and consistent.

As for Nowitzki: never is having an unguardable player more valuable than in a slugfest of a series. Brooks and his staff can pore over tape and rifle through various defensive coverages and techniques, but they’ll be in no better shape to defend Nowitzki than they were a season ago, when he systematically wiped the floor with every defender thrown his way. Nowitzki was operating on a special plane of existence then, and though the Thunder defenders will enter this series as a statistically superior team and more learned in the way of Nowitzki’s fakes, it’s difficult to phase the ethereal. The Thunder are still just as likely to fall for Nowitzki’s wide assortment of dekes and stunts, but if nothing else, this series provides an experimental ground. Our now-testable hypothesis: Nowitzki played at a level beyond even his usual postseason excellence last season, and was so thoroughly in the zone that even OKC’s cast of capable defenders (Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins, Nick Collison, et al) couldn’t pull him out. As of now, Nowitzki looks in-rhythm, but mortal; might the matchup advantage he poses be enough to return him to that same transcendence? Or was last year’s performance so exceptional that he’s doomed to merely be great this time around, even as his team needs something more?

———-

A few intermittent thoughts:

• Harden is a complete unknown in this series, and if the Mavericks are going to really make a go of this, their efforts will likely be predicated the fact that he’s still feeling his way back into the game after his unbelievable season was derailed by blunt force trauma. If Harden struggles a bit, Jason Kidd is theoretically opened up to roam a bit more on defense — either away from Harden, or from Thabo Sefolosha — while Delonte West and Shawn Marion draw primary defensive assignments against Westbrook and Durant respectively. Put another way: if Harden returns to the lineup and plays as he has all season, I don’t see how Dallas pulls out this series. If he’s forced to play his way back into a form, that could give Dallas a crucial window.
• Considering that the Thunder rank last in the league in turnover rate, the three-guard looks that Carlisle has employed more regularly in the final weeks of the season could prove instrumental. Live-ball turnovers are an incredibly valuable source of easy offense, and the more quickly Dallas can transition from forcing turnovers to running the break — as they would by virtue of increasing their number of ball-handlers on the court — the better.
• It’s good news for all that Brandan Wright is set to be a regular part of Dallas’ rotation in this series, but consider this: while Brendan Haywood has been on the floor against the Thunder this season, OKC has managed to score at a dismally low rate of 84.5 points per 100 possessions. The sample size is obviously quite small, and Haywood was remarkably bad against the Thunder last season, but I wonder if there might be some sliver of truth in that data that speaks to his utility in this series.
• Can the Mavericks again turn Kendrick Perkins into an offensive liability? If so, and if the Thunder go small to compensate — as they often have this season — can Durant effectively defend Nowitzki?
• Just in case you’ve managed to convince yourself otherwise: the Thunder are an elite team no matter how they’ve played in their last 14 games, Durant is one of the league’s finest, Westbrook is a bad-shooting month away from high efficiency, and the Thunder bench — while not tremendously helpful in terms of scoring — fills in the gaps beautifully to complete a top-notch outfit. If Dallas does manage to create problems for OKC in this series, it won’t be because they’re the better team; it’ll be because Nowitzki manages to stabilize the offense with elite scoring, the defense completely renews its focus, and Carlisle gets the better of Brooks. There are other parts of the dynamic that would need to be accounted for, but those are the three swings that would seem to put the Mavs in the midst of something beyond a competitive series.
• Kidd has played relatively well of late, and although his style and production have been completely sustainable, I think most Mavericks fans are right to wonder if this kind of performance can really last. If not, West and Jason Terry should have their hands full; the Maverick offense isn’t overly reliant on one ball-handler in particular to orchestrate its affairs, but Kidd does a lot of seemingly simple things that keep the offense flowing in cadence.

———-

There’s no certainty in echoing “Thunder in six,” and yet that seems the only option available. So let’s make it official: Thunder in six. It’s not the only possible outcome, but when sifting through all of them, it seems the most likely. The Mavericks seem too good to be swept, but too inconsistent to win. They have the ability to compete and sadly seem likely to lose a few close games. They’ll be in this series until they’re ousted, and don’t let the fact that I don’t see this thing going seven serve as some kind of competitive indictment.

A few matchup advantages do not an upset make; Dallas has claim to a few specific points of attack, but there’s so little reason to believe in their performance this season beyond the value of rolling the dice. The Mavericks will have a chance in a series they’re not likely to win, and considering all that has transpired since last summer — the release of key piece after key piece, the lockout’s destructive influence, Nowitzki’s inexplicable struggles, and everything in the mire surrounding Lamar Odom — that’s not a bad position to be in at all.

Data from NBA.com was used in this post.

Signing a minimum contract affords one rare luxury for a newly signed player: low expectations. On good teams, most minimum contracts are given out simply for the purpose of creating depth. Yet Brandan Wright (along with teammate Delonte West) has filled out the depth chart and more, as he surpassed those minimal expectations and made the rare jump into importance this season. As the Mavericks look towards the impending playoffs, perhaps no player is more important to the team’s chances than Wright.

The NBA journey of Brandan Wright began as a story of disappointment. Wright was a highly regarded prospect coming out of college, good enough to be taken with the eighth pick by the Charlotte Bobcats and traded to the Golden State Warriors for Jason Richardson. But Wright never managed to live up to his high billing during his first few years in the league. He was plagued by injury through all three of his seasons with the Warriors, and when healthy, rarely managed to estabilish a significant role. When Wright, always an efficient player on offense, finally began to establish a role for himself in 08-09, he injured his shoulder and missed the entirety of the next season. After a regressive season with the New Jersey Nets last year, Wright found himself unattached with little free agent interest. It appeared possible that Wright would find himself out of the NBA entirely, a disappointing end to the story of an athletic finisher who couldn’t overcome injury and circumstance.

But with Tyson Chandler’s departure, the Mavericks were in need of depth at the center position. Wright was signed to a minimum contract, and opened the season as the Mavericks de facto third-string center and very occasional power forward.

It isn’t easy for a third-string center to climb into a significant role, but this time, circumstances were in Wright’s favor. Rick Carlisle is more willing to experiment with his rotations than most other NBA coaches, and the Mavericks’ center hierarchy was certainly not assured. When it became apparent that the Mavs’ biggest problem was offensive production, Wright’s niche began to appear. Brendan Haywood and Ian Mahinmi are both capable centers, but neither player is a particularly dexterous or boasts particular finesse. Wright’s first chance at significant minutes came 12 games into the season, and his full range of talents were put on display. He finished with 12 points on 4-of-5 shooting and blocked three shots in 25 minutes, but only recorded one rebound.

Wright’s greatest strength is his terrific offensive efficiency, a product of his overwhelming length, athleticism, and touch at the rim. Wright shoots 75 percent when at the rim on almost three attempts per game, and provides the Mavericks someone to find under the basket when Dirk Nowitzki can’t find position in the high post. The Mavericks have regressed this season in regards to at-the-rim shooting, relying too often on difficult jumpers to sustain offensive leads. Jason Kidd hardly ever touches the paint these days, Jason Terry’s love for pull-up jumpers has only increased, and Dirk is taking 0.4 less attempts per game at the rim compared to 2011, and making a slightly lower percentage of those attempts. This is where Wright can reverse the Mavericks’ trend, and the Mavericks guards have proven themselves capable of finding an open Wright, as 82.3 percent of his baskets are assisted. The Mavericks have had a below-average season largely due to their inability to create easy baskets, but with Wright playing 20 or more minutes in 10 of his last 16 games, the Mavericks’ offense has improved and scored 100 points or more in eight of those contests. Wright certainly isn’t the sole cause of this improvement (Dirk Nowitzki’s return to form should also be accounted for), but he allows the Mavericks some form of offensive diversity. Plus, Wright also generates something that few other Mavericks can: genuine and immediate excitement, in the form of alley-oops and transitional dunks.

But there are reasons that Wright has remained a situational player for the Mavericks. With Wright in the game, the Mavericks’ defense is capable of declining to almost the same extent that the offense improves. Wright is less strong than his positional counterparts, and often struggles to get back in weak side defensive situations. Wright is a much better defender against power forwards, where he can use his length alone to triumph in isolation situations, but with Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion on the team, opportunities are far more limited at that position. Wright is also less efficient on offense when playing power forward, adding a small caveat to his generally strong offensive production.

Lineup data reveals that the Mavericks are worse with Brandan Wright on the court (-0.52 net points per 100 possessions worse, via basketballvalue.com), and while that negative rating can be partially attributed to some of the sluggish bench units Wright has been a part of, it also indicates Wright’s defensive fallibility. If he’s simply subbed in as part of a normal rotation and not as part of a situational advantage, the Mavericks struggle to break even with Wright on the court and are often overwhelmed in the paint. Wright is a player whose talents the Mavericks are often in desperate need of utilizing, but also a player with weaknesses that make correct utilization of those talents paramount to team success.

While the regular season performance of the Mavericks has generally been a disappointment, Wright’s emergence has served as a source of optimism. As part of the Mavericks’ three-center rotation, Wright has been able to serve as a scoring punch and as a rare input of dynamic athleticism on an aging team. As the playoffs near, Wright could find himself at the forefront of the Mavericks’ rotation (in a matchup vs. the smaller-sized Clippers) or bereft of any playing time (against the unmistakable tallness of Andrew Bynum and the Lakers). It is in these situations where the creativity of Rick Carlisle’s lineup choices must shine through, and act as a propellant to both the Mavericks’ playoff chances and Wright’s rotational viability. He can be the series-changing player that the Mavericks seek, but it’s up to Wright, Carlisle, and the entire team to decide if he’ll find the hidden, electric expansions of his game that could make playoff lightning possible.

Connor Huchton is a contributor to Hardwood Paroxysm, an editor of Rufus On Fire, and a part of The Two Man Game family. You can follow Connor on Twitter: @ConnorHuchton.