Posted by Rob Mahoney on December 31, 2009 under Previews | 
If you had to pick the centerpiece of the Houston Rockets this season, it would probably be Trevor Ariza. Errrr, maybe it would be Aaron Brooks. Or Luis Scola. Or Shane Battier. Or Carl Landry. Or Chuck Hayes. In a vacuum completely devoid of traditional superstars, the redeeming value of the Rockets lies in their disregard for the traditional model. There was no desperation to play Tracy McGrady upon his return, or to make a deal for an overpaid quasi-star. Just a team full of professionals working hard and playing in concert, in part because Trevor Ariza, while good, falls short of great:
You could blame a lot of people for Ariza’s stunted offensive development, but it just seems natural for him to exist in his current state. As a Laker, Ariza’s skill set made him not a Kobe wannabe, but a welcome, unique part of a championship squad. And as a Rocket, Ariza’s physical tools would seemingly allow him to step into Tracy McGrady’s shoes, but his limitations allow him to be something so much more. If you were to pick out the teams of the NBA in the truest sense of the word, the Rockets would certainly be among them. Would that be the case if the divide in traditional statistical production between Ariza and his teammates was more notable? If his high number of shot attempts were a product of anything other than necessity?
Hardly. If Ariza had a more diverse offensive game, it’s probable that the Rockets would be improved as well. But everything we’ve come to know about them this season would be eclipsed by convention. Ariza’s mediocrity (which isn’t meant to be an insult) is part of what makes Houston so unbelievably charming, as if each clanging jumpshot or overambitious drive was only further evidence of Trevor being earnest. The Rockets are only the Rockets because of their delightful limitations, and to expect more of Ariza is to wish death upon the Rox as we know them.
Read my full thoughts on Trevor Ariza, the Houston Rockets, and the beauty of their limitations at Hardwood Paroxysm.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on December 22, 2009 under Previews |
For a team with a bright future, things in Portland are certainly dim. Greg Oden’s injury puts a damper on what could have been a successful season, and the point guard situation is far from resolved. They have an All-Star shooting guard and bright, young talent at virtually every position, yet the chemistry and rotation have become unexpected problems. The worst of it is this: regardless of what has worked for other teams in the past, there is no blueprint for team-building. There is no generic solution for the Blazers’ uniquely talented players, and though it sure beats being a lottery team, being rich with talent often presents its own new problems.
The Portland Trailblazers are an interesting case study on multiple levels, but particularly because their fortunes have been all over the place. Brandon Roy is clearly the star of the show, and rightfully so. He’s an incredibly talented offensive player who can produce without stymieing the greater team-wide vision. In fact, with a player of Roy’s particular talents and tendencies, you could go as far as to say that he excels within a team framework. There are certain NBA players who were born to win one-on-one tournaments. And for what it’s worth, Roy probably wouldn’t do too badly. That said, the true beauty of his game comes in how he controls the flow of the offense and manages space. He works the pick-and-roll beautifully, he draws extra defenders and finds the open man, and above all, Roy isn’t just capable of making the pass, but completely willing to. He’s humble. He’s a consummate professional. He’s hungry. And despite everything that has gone right for the Blazers in amassing their stable of young talent, it’s possible that they still haven’t figured out what kind of players are best-suited to flank Roy (and LaMarcus Aldridge, and whoever else is deemed part of the core).
It’s not as simple as taking a franchise model and plugging in Roy. His style is very much his own, and despite the temptation to assume that he would work the same in any number of systems with a precedent of talented shooting guards, that’s not the way it works. Just because the Bulls of the 90s, the Lakers of the early 2000s, and the current incarnation all run some version of the triangle offense, the personnel put their mark on the system. In those cases, you can hold the coach and the system constant, but that doesn’t make Luc Longley and Shaquille O’Neal one in the same. Players will always shape a system to make it unique, and great players typically have a more profound influence than is easily recognizable. As much as Roy is to be part of McMillan’s system, the system and the rotation must adjust to the specificities of Roy’s game.
Read my piece on Brandon Roy and the Blazers in its entirety at Hardwood Paroxysm.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on December 18, 2009 under Previews |
The Mavs have pleasantly surprised. Although it might be easy to dig up a Maverick die-hard who had faith in Dallas’ ability to develop a top-notch defense, I think you’d be hard pressed top back that argument with warrant and logic. Expecting such a prolific defensive display could possibly have labeled you as some kind of maniac, or worse, a homer.
But the Rockets have been a surprise in a completely different way. Whereas underestimating the Dallas defense was natural given the personnel (a supposedly slowing Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion, and the near-liabilities turned competent defenders, Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry), the Rockets were underestimated due to a complete oversight of the power of a basketball cooperative. Each player compensates for the weakness of another, and though high-level talent separates Houston from the West’s elite, we all should have expected competence from a batch of skilled, highly-motivated ballplayers:
I don’t know if you heard, but over the Summer, the Houston Rockets essentially swapped Ron Artest for Trevor Ariza. The former is a bit of a wildcard, known for ill-advised 3s, elite perimeter defense, and something about snake eggs. The latter is a superb athlete, a tremendous wing defender, and an emerging shooting threat.
So why is it that the Houston Rockets were so woefully underestimated coming into the season, when the only significant difference between last year’s playoff team and this year’s would-be playoff time is the (occasionally bad) shot creating abilities of Artest?
I…I don’t know. Count me among the many that refused to acknowledge Houston’s potential. I didn’t see where the points were going to come from, even if Ariza is a young, talented player on a perfectly reasonable salary. Call me crazy, but I wasn’t sold on Aaron Brooks’ ability to score consistently, much less run an offense. And I saw some problems among their rotation of bigs, which had fallen to three productive if undersized power forwards in the absence of Yao Ming. Not only is none of that true, but we’ve seen virtually the opposite.
Read my thoughts on the Rockets in their entirety on Hardwood Paroxysm.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on December 16, 2009 under Previews |
Russell Westbrook has the potential to be a terrific player, even if his natural instincts tell him to take bad, long jumpers and drive into the lane without a plan of attack. Still, he intends well, and he’s the rare breed of NBA talent that boasts both tremendous athleticism and excellent work ethic.
Nothing comes easy for Russell Westbrook on the basketball court…except for the running and the leaping. But those skills make Westbrook more a track star than a legit NBA player. Yet Russell is considered one of the best young points in the league, and his dynamic, energetic play is one of the reasons why the Thunder are slowly invading the national consciousness. He boasts a rare combination of top-notch athleticism and maximum effort, two traits which are almost antithetical in today’s NBA. The league’s athletic freaks typically coast on their natural gifts for far too long, temporarily halting their development and limiting their opportunities. Those that aren’t blessed with that athleticism typically opt towards honing a particular skill or simply outwork everyone else on the floor. But despite his ridiculous ups and explosive speed, Westbrook has managed to stay grounded.
Read my full post on Westbrook here.
The Dallas Mavericks visit the Okahoma City Thunder
7:00 CST
ESPN
Posted by Rob Mahoney on December 8, 2009 under Previews |
Steve Nash was able to accomplish plenty with the Mavs, but it wasn’t until he landed in Phoenix that his particular talents were in full effect. The Seven Seconds or Less system is as much Nash’s as it is Mike D’Antoni’s, and though Pringles is coaching in the Garden these days (where the grass isn’t quite greener), Alvin Gentry has made it his mission to return the Suns to their roots. Watching Phoenix this season has been a treat, and even though having a competitive Suns team isn’t great news for the Mavs in terms of the playoff race, it’s terrific that Dallas again has another foil. Beyond that, it’s simply brilliant that the most energizing and mesmerizing offensive system of recent history has found its rightful home. This is Phoenix Suns basketball in its purest form, which is not only a brilliant display on the hardwood, but the truest equivalent of life itself in the NBA:
Mike D’Antoni may not have been a prophet, but he was certainly a philosopher. The trademark of D’Antoni’s Suns was always their mortality, and I think that legacy has lived on through this current team. The Seven Seconds or Less squads wear (or wore) their vulnerabilities on their sleeve, but their mortality comes as much from leading a particularly vulnerable existence as it does from finding exuberance in it. These teams, in all of their fast-breaking splendor and glory, know how to live. They know how to play a bit, too, but the defining legacy of the Mike D’Antoni era in Phoenix (which lives on today) should be the Suns’ artful display of basketball as life.
Maybe the hustle and the bustle of the Suns doesn’t quite fit your living style, but who could possibly claim that the exaggerated in-game highs and lows of the Suns — the 20-point lead built and swallowed by a 5-25 run, the 3-point barrages followed by defensive letdowns — aren’t basketball’s most fitting equivalent of life on the outside? It’s not about the 9-5 grind, and it’s not necessarily about winning all the time; the Suns’ existence is predicated on winning more than you lose, embracing who you are, playing by your own rules, learning to live through the ups and downs, and remembering that the line between work and play doesn’t have to be crystal clear. They work hard, they score points, and they play basketball like it’s a game worth playing. They may not have the talent of the Lakers or the convention of the Spurs, but this is a team of hard workers and ball players with a plan. I don’t know if that plan means anything in the Western Conference playoff picture this season, and in the grand scheme of things I’m not sure it matters all that much. If there were ever a solid case to be made against the championship being the end-all of athletic conquests, it would have to be the Suns, who may have discovered along the way to 60-win seasons and the Conference Finals that the journey is perhaps the worthier part.
Follow the yellow brick road over to Hardwood Paroxysm to read my whole piece on the Suns vis a vis life.
Tip-off in Dallas at 7:30 CST.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on December 2, 2009 under Previews |
The Dallas Mavericks visit the New Jersey Nets
6:30 CST
Tonight’s game may mean everything in the world to the woeful New Jersey Nets, but for Dallas, it’s just one in 82. Maybe it’s another match-up with Devin Harris, or maybe it’s just a defensive test against a lightning-quick point guard. Maybe it’s another trip back to NJ for Jason Kidd, or maybe it’s just another chance for the Mavs to put away a lesser team. It’s a night on the schedule and a day in the office.
If the Nets lose tonight’s game and claim the worst start in NBA history, that’s on them. Dallas would be just one of New Jersey’s 18 losses, . So even though it may seem like the Mavs have a chance to make a run at history, in reality they merely have the opportunity to kick a team while they’re down, crush an already demoralized fan base, and register yet another win. Then again, while I see little reason for the Mavs to want to demoralize the Nets, could anything possibly be more consistent with the Mavs’ M.O. this season? If Dallas really is a team of dream killers and soul crushers, could there possibly be any more emphatic statement than destroying the Nets’ only hope?
So while I am sympathetic to New Jersey’s plight (especially because of their miserable run of injuries), I certainly wouldn’t mind seeing the Mavs take yet another step to further establish their team identity. It’s time to be ruthless — not for the sake of the record books, but for the sake of letting the league know that the Dallas Mavericks will eat you alive.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on November 24, 2009 under Previews |
The Golden State Warriors visit the Dallas Mavericks
7:30 CST
Don Nelson, Papa Bear of the chaotic entity that is the Golden State Warriors, has a complex relationship with his players. So complex, in fact, that I get the distinct feeling that he enjoys throwing everything into the fire just to see if it’ll burn. He ordains Monta Ellis the point guard of the future for the Dubs, just before openly bashing Ellis’ game and drafting Steph Curry to take his job. He hands Stephen Jackson an oversized check and smiles for the photo op, and then can’t manage to appease his team’s most talented player when all goes to hell. He drafts Brandan Wright and Anthony Randolph, lauds their high ceilings and shiny chandeliers, and then digs them a hole under the bench. He’s not a simple man, that Nelson, and claiming to understand him is, in itself, an act of considerable arrogance.
So I won’t bother. I don’t know what caused Nelson to do all of those things, or what led him to believe Antoine Walker would work out as a point-center, or why he decided one morning to hand the team to Avery Johnson. But I do know that Nellie, for all of his glory as an unconventional offensive mastermind, has marred his time with the Warriors by making mistake after mistake after mistake. Any magic that the bay once had is long since gone, and the heroes of “We Believe” have been chased from the city limits by an angry Nellie and his torch. It’s not Nelson’s fault that the team’s design was flawed, or that Baron Davis or Stephen Jackson gave in to their lesser, more selfish instincts. But is is Nelson’s fault that Chris Mullin is now an outcast, and it’s on Nelson that this team disintegrated in a truly spectacular fashion. That’s item 1-A in Nellie’s playbook, and the only reason Dallas was spared was because of a strong team infrastructure, a stable talent base, and an owner with enough dislike for Nelson (by the end of his tenure, anyway) that he simply refused to let it happen.
But on occasion, even the deranged antics of a self-involved diva of a coach are at the mercy of basketball’s supernatural forces. Enough was enough, and though the people of Warrior Nation have yet to be relieved of Nelson entirely, they were granted one small token by destiny itself: Anthony Randolph.
In a way, Randolph was the ultimate tease. He redefined summer league dominance, carrying his momentum into the regular season with all the fanfare a depressed fan base could muster…and began the season with the resounding boom of just ten minutes of playing time. A team so desperate for big men that they employ Mikki Moore, and there were so few minutes to be had for perhaps the team’s brightest young star.
But over time, fate has forced Nelson’s hand. Foul trouble. Injuries. More Injuries. A few more injuries, just for kicks. And now the Warriors are essentially eight deep, and that’s if you’re willing to count the contributions of Moore and Chris Hunter. It’s the perfect opportunity for Randolph to break free of the stockades, and though his versatile game and bizarre gait don’t infuse the Warriors with a sense of order or purpose, sometimes it’s enough just to get one fan off the ledge. Nellie has tried his damnedest to keep this franchise in a box since 2007, and though Randolph is impressive enough to be notable without being earth-shattering, it’s a bit tricky to fit a 6′11” frame and that much game into such rigid confines.
It’s sad to see the once beloved Don Nelson of old become nothing more than the crabby old man next door. Especially so when you consider that Randolph, a lanky, unconventional, and talented big man, is the prime target of his tirades. How might things have turned out differently for the Mavs if Nellie took the same approach eleven years ago with a lanky, unconventional, and talented Maverick big man? Nellie was probably the best guy for the job of properly unshelling Dirk Nowitzki, and though his reputation isn’t quite what it used to be, that relationship was a bit of serendipity for the Mavs organization. Dirk simply isn’t Dirk without the opportunities and teachings that were afforded him by Nelson, and as an appreciator of fine talent and strange, versatile combo forwards, I can only hope that Randolph is given a bit of the same.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on November 18, 2009 under Previews |
The San Antonio Spurs visit the Dallas Mavericks
8:30 CST
With everyone’s favorite Maverick (and I mean EVERYONE), Erick Dampier, on the shelf for tonight’s game, Drew Gooden will have his first real go as a starter against a quality big. Drew is coming off of back-to-back double-doubles against the Pistons and the Bucks, and in both games he was indispensable. Here are Gooden’s stats over the last two:
| PPG | RPG | ORPG | TOPG | FG% | +/- |
| 16.5 | 12.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | .619 | +13 |
But Andrew Bogut is no Tim Duncan. Ben Wallace is no Tim Duncan. Hell, Ben Wallace is barely Ben Wallace these days. That could translate to some big trouble for the Mavs, who are forced to start Drew Gooden in a situation in which they would normally start Erick Dampier. But this is also a case where Drew can prove his value to this team, and hopefully demonstrate some versatility.
In this test run, Drew Gooden is playing on borrowed minutes. Duncan is precisely the type of center that the Mavs would counter with the strength of Erick Dampier, but tonight they have no such luxury. Gooden is the choice to start by default, which, and forgive me for oversimplifying here, essentially means that there will be one of two possible outcomes:
- Drew Gooden plays well. He holds his own on the defensive end, making Tim Duncan work for his points and rotates well to contest penetration. Gooden scores on some Dampier-esque garbage buckets as well as dropping a few buckets when left to his own devices in the post. He uses up minutes at the 5 without being a liability on the floor, and he takes full advantage of this free opportunity.
- Drew Gooden falls in line with expectation. He allows Duncan, Blair, and McDyess to bully him in the post and on the glass. Gooden floats on defense, not committing to any particular man or system, but feigning activity. He uses up shot attempts at the 5 when there are better offensive options on the floor, and he stops the offense in order to maximize his own opportunities.
I would say it’s up to Drew, but it’s hardly that simple. Still, the fact remains that this is a free opportunity for Gooden to gain some ground on Erick Dampier for a consistent starting gig. If the Mavs’ starting center job really is a meritocratic endeavor, then Drew has nothing to lose tonight, but a lot to gain. A big night tonight would likely translate to more opportunities against a greater variety of opponents, and would shift the chips in Gooden’s favor as a default starter. Unless Gooden is content to let Damp ride shotgun, he should try his damnedest to prove himself against the very breed of center Drew was never supposed to prove himself against.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on November 13, 2009 under Previews |
The Dallas Mavericks visit the Minnesota Timberwolves
7:00 CST
The biggest disappointment of the 2009-2010 season thus far is not Drew Gooden’s sloppy play, Josh Howard’s nagging injury, or even the blown games against the Hornets and Spurs, but rather the sloppy, impotent offensive display the Mavs have put on over the season’s first eight games. Although the significant increase in free throw attempts has padded Dallas’ offensive efficiency and raw points per game numbers, one metric stands out above all: a disappointing and uncharacteristic .493 effective field goal percentage, down from .504 last season.
The obvious villain here, oddly enough, is Dirk Nowitzki. Dirk is averaging an impressive 26.5 PPG, but both his traditional field goal percentage and effective field goal percentage are the lowest they’ve been since his rookie season. His low shooting percentages are sandbagging an offense that was supposedly potent, negating the offensive impacts of replacing Antoine Wright with Shawn Marion and counterbalancing Erick Dampier’s hot start. In all of the moves made this summer, the Maverick offense was always considered a given. Dirk is still an offensive whiz, Jason Kidd is still a helluva point guard, and Jason Terry boggles the mind with his super-efficient shooting. Suddenly that offense is anything but a crutch, and though it’s been nice to watch the Mavs win games with stops and free throws, it would certainly be nice to see Dirk’s jumper splash net a few more times a night.
But honestly, there’s no reason to panic. Mavs fans are well aware of Dirk’s ability to bounce back from a shooting slump, and although this site (among others) puts Dirk’s offensive game on a pedestal for all to admire, he’s not flawless. And though Dirk’s shooting numbers may seem abnormal when compared to his season averages over the course of his career, a deeper look shows that Dirk has started slowly in each of the last four years.
| Season | Dirk's FG% (8 games) | Mavs' Record |
| 2009-2010 | .427 | 5-3 |
| 2008-2009 | .416 | 2-6 |
| 2007-2008 | .443 | 6-2 |
| 2006-2007 | .493 | 4-4 |
Although Dirk’s FG% over the first eight games of the 2006-2007 season appears to be sound, it’s still a full percentage point lower than his season average.
Dirk is going to bounce back, and once his jumper returns it will be greeted with parades and celebrations. Tonight seems a good a night as any, as a depleted Timberwolves team missing both Al Jefferson and Kevin Love will lean heavily on Ryan Gomes and Oleksiy Pecherov to defend Dirk. The open looks will be there, the lanes to the basket will be there, and it’s up to Dirk to jump-start his offense in any way he can.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on November 10, 2009 under Previews |
The Houston Rockets visit the Dallas Mavericks
7:30 CST
When the Mavs and the Rockets met in the 2005 playoffs, Houston appeared to be on the cusp of elite status. Not only did the wing-center combo of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming make sense on a very basic, basketball level, but McGrady’s offense was an excellent counterpoint to Jeff Van Gundy’s Yao-anchored defense. The rest of the roster was appraised as paper-thin, but solid contributions from a stable of role players sopped up minutes like a Bob Sura-shaped sponge. Houston very nearly downed Dallas in the first round, before an improbable comeback (and a Game 7 dismantling) ended the Rockets’ run before it truly began.
But as people in the future are ought to do, we know now that it was never meant to be. Yao and McGrady have alternated breakdowns, JVG was chased from the head of the bench to the broadcast table, and the rest of the roster has been turned over in its entirety.
What’s even more tragic is that for the most part, the Rockets’ “downfall” was instigated by events almost entirely outside of their control. So much hinged on the knees and back of McGrady and the legs of Yao, and that’s a load those bones were not built to bare. A string of unfavorable and unlucky injuries dropped the ceiling on an entire franchise, left two star athletes in limbo at critical points in their careers, and likely cost Van Gundy his job.
Meanwhile, the Mavs have been to the Conference Finals and the NBA Finals. They’ve won 67 games and brought home an MVP award, a Coach of the Year Award, and a 6th Man Award. They defeated the older brother Spurs, took down deserter Steve Nash, and have yet to win less than 50 games. The Mavs have won and accomplished plenty, largely because Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry, the linchpins of execution and chemistry in Dallas, have had sterling health over the last four seasons.
Trade the medical records of Dirk/Terry for that of Yao/McGrady, and the entire Western Conference is radically altered. Not only would the rosters of the Mavs and the Rockets be radically different, but titles would assuredly change hands, reactionary trade moves would be impacted, and who knows what would have happened to Ron Artest.
In spite of all of the injuries that have plagued the Rockets, they’ve won over 50 games in three out of the four years since those fateful 2005 Playoffs. That group of middling peripheral talent was swapped out for a more complete role playing cast under the careful, calculating watch (and maybe calculator watch) of Daryl Morey. The wacky world of advanced statistical analysis has built surprisingly competent teams in Houston, with this year’s outfit being no exception. Despite the fact that most players on the roster shouldn’t be considered a primary or even secondary offensive option, Houston is locked with Dallas for the top spot in the Southwest Division. That’s a hell of a rally for a squad missing their top two players, who also happen to be the floor generals for both ends of the court. With no McGrady or Artest to provide the scoring punch, the Rockets are STILL 8th in the league in offensive rating. And with no Yao inside, the Rockets are STILL in the top half of the league in defensive rating. Those are decent numbers for any team, much less one thought to fall out of the playoff race entirely.
I’d like to think that in the bizarro universe I’ve painted for you, Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson would be able to accomplish the same, or at least a comparable product. Like Morey, both Cuban and Nelson are known for the ingenuity. Combine that innovative side with a willingness to pull the trigger on potential deals, and you have the ingredients necessary to assemble a scrappy, underdog squad. There’s no way of knowing whether Josh Howard and Erick Dampier (and Devin Harris?) could lead a team to the playoffs with a Rockets-esque cast, but I have no hesitation in saying that it would be difficult to put the Mavs and Rockets in better hands.