Now in Session

Posted by Rob Mahoney on December 22, 2011 under Commentary |

This year’s preseason campaign may be more important than the lead-in exhibitions of a standard season, but there’s still only so much that can be digested from a mere prologue. Still, we can glean hints of the year to come, even in the context of games that don’t matter. With that, here are eight observations from the Mavs’ two preseason games against the Oklahoma City Thunder, laced with a nice balance of optimism and gloom:

• Dirk Nowitzki isn’t quite ready to anchor this team. Nowitzki’s off-season regimen is steady and true, but the odd timing of the league’s return appears to have taken its toll. Without the proper lead up to the beginning of the NBA season, Nowitzki looked positively gassed in his limited preseason action, an unfortunate fact that will take some time to remedy. He’ll undoubtedly get ample playing time as he works his way into game shape, but Nowitzki’s wobbly legs aren’t quite ready to bear the load that the Mavericks typically ask him to bear. That’s hardly devastating (it’s only a matter of time before Dirk regains his superhuman form), but it sure doesn’t help matters.
• So much for continuity. The Mavs are the reigning champs, and will return with their endlessly creative coach along with five playoff principals. The heavy-lifters on offense are all still in Dallas, and the system that allowed the Mavs to corral LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, and LaMarcus Aldridge is intact. Yet Dallas’ two preseason exhibitions against Oklahoma City featured some truly dreadful basketball with only occasional glimpses of well-executed play. From those games alone, you’d never know the Mavs had brought home the Larry O’Brien, and it’s hard to imagine them suddenly reversing course for the regular season’s commencement.
• Brendan Haywood is no Tyson Chandler, but he’s also no Brendan Haywood. The drop-off from last year’s Tyson Chandler to this year’s Brendan Haywood was understood and expected, but thus far Haywood hasn’t even managed to match his own relatively lesser standard. Haywood’s preseason play was fairly miserable; his rotations have been slow, he’s committed some silly fouls, and his forays out to the perimeter (a Chandler staple) have ended disastrously. It’s all just preseason play, but the early marks for the Brendan Haywood Era Redux are underwhelming.
• Unsurprisingly, Lamar Odom makes the right plays. Odom tallied just one assist in two preseason games, but he made some great feeds to put teammates in scoring position. He’s a fine rebounder and a versatile scorer, but it’s Odom’s playmaking ability that intrigues me most. Dallas benefited from smooth ball movement last season, but with J.J. Barea and Jason Terry as the only legitimate playmakers on the court outside of Jason Kidd. Odom has better vision than both, and has access to different passing angles as a result of his height and court placement. That could do some very cool things for the flow of the Mavs’ offense, the full extent of which we may not see for months.
• Rodrigue Beaubois and Dominique Jones are ready for a bigger role, but only with the requisite patience. Beaubois has become one of the NBA’s great teases. We’ve all seen his scoring feats and the glimpses of his potential, but foot injuries and re-injuries and re-re-injuries have prevented him from becoming a proper fixture in the Mavs’ rotation. I’m sure you’ve heard this one before, but this could finally, finally, be the year that Beaubois breaks through. He’s still far from a lock for serious minutes, but there’s at least a chance to see a bit of Le Petit Prince on a nightly basis. His off-kilter offensive game is still very much in effect, and could give Dallas a nice, JET-like boost in the deep reserves. Dominique Jones, too, seems ready for a playing time investment, though available minutes are a rarity in Dallas’ backcourt. He manages to play off of Beaubois, Terry, and Kidd nicely, as Jones utilizes a drive-and-kick style to both create open shots for others and initiate contact around the basket. Jones attempted 15 free throws and totaled 11 assists through two preseason games, and while he made plenty of mistakes on both ends, getting on the court with some regularity could make him a pretty intriguing player.
• Rick Carlisle’s foul trouble philosophy will dictate the center rotation. In one preseason game, Ian Mahinmi played 23 minutes and committed a single foul. In the other, he played 25 minutes and committed five of them. Mahinmi’s foul-crazy ways are hardly behind him, and yet Ian will be called upon as the Mavs’ primary backup for Haywood. How many minutes Mahinmi actually plays won’t be determined by how many fouls he commits, but how Rick Carlisle chooses to respond to those fouls. If Carlisle opts to follow the conventional rules of yanking a player after committing three fouls in the first half, etc., Brandan Wright and Sean Williams will have frequent openings for spot minutes (with Nowitzki and Odom serving as counterpoint center options). If Carlisle utilizes a more flexible strategy that allows Mahinmi to play out the necessary minutes, foul trouble be damned, then Wright and Williams will only be eligible for emergency utilization.
• Jerome Randle is a player. Dallas’ guard rotation has become pretty cluttered, but Cal product Jerome Randle has the potential to provide the Mavs with a nice dual purpose guard for the future. He won’t cost much; Randle is currently playing on a make-good deal that could see him cut before the start of the season, and would only demand a minimum salary. But his preseason showing — particularly his 15-point fourth-quarter showcase on Tuesday night — warrants serious long-term consideration. Randle would be a great prospect to stash away in the D-League, where he can work on minimizing his mistakes against opponents with NBA-level length and athleticism. He still needs the proper seasoning before he’s ready to really cook, but there’s real promise in his ability to work both on and off the ball
• So long, Drew Neitzel. The signing of Sean Williams gives the Mavs 16 players for a 15-man roster, and Neitzel has the unfortunate distinction of being the most sensible cut. Neitzel’s chances to make the team were low even before Williams was in play, but Donnie Nelson’s latest addition frames the writing on the wall and installs the appropriate spotlighting to accentuate it.

EDIT: Somehow, the Mavs reportedly opted to keep Neitzel and waive Randle. I am thoroughly, thoroughly confused. Neitzel must be a hell of a practice player.

EDIT II: The Mavericks announced that they have waived both Randle and Neitzel, which makes a bit more sense. Waiving Randle in favor of Neitzel would’ve been pretty strange, but the decision to release both is a bit more sensible. This certainly won’t be the first time the Mavs enter the season with open roster spots; Donnie Nelson has a knack for picking up players mid-stride, just as Dallas did with Peja Stojakovic and Corey Brewer last season.

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