Kindly Ignore the Electric Sheep

Posted by Rob Mahoney on December 10, 2011 under Commentary, News | 17 Comments to Read

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Before we begin, let’s all take a deep breath.

From Sam Amick of SI.com:

Orlando PR man Joel Glass calls to inform that D. Howard’s agent now has permission to speak w/ Lakers, Nets, & Mavs about possible trade.

Stop. Right. There.

Stop daydreaming over the thought of Dirk Nowitzki being paired with a frontcourt partner even more productive than he is. Erase the thought that the Tyson Chandler free agent saga — while unfortunate in its own way — could ultimately give way to the greatest era of Mavericks basketball yet. Toss away the notion that the Mavs are currently in legitimate running to net another superstar, be it Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, or Deron Williams.

The trade logic just doesn’t work out. It’s nice that Howard likely considers Dallas among his preferred destinations, but interest alone won’t manufacture a trade out of thin air. It won’t produce a trade package on par with what L.A. (Andrew Bynum) or New Jersey (Brook Lopez) could offer, and it won’t make Magic GM Otis Smith suddenly infatuated with the Mavericks’ underwhelming trade chips.  Dallas just doesn’t have the assets on hand to make any kind of blockbuster deal, and that’s as true today as it was yesterday.

EDIT: It’s true that as a result of the likely sign-and-trade of Tyson Chandler (per Marc Stein of ESPN.com), the Mavs will acquire a pretty substantial traded player exception (TPE). However, that in itself is not an asset — it’s a facilitator. It widens the range of a possible deal, but it does not actually enhance the deal itself. It could help Dallas absorb Hedo Turkoglu’s massive contract, but it doesn’t actually provide Orlando any assets with which to rebuild. The Mavs are not unique in their ability to soak up Turkoglu’s deal, and TPE or no, they’re still forced to build a deal for one of the best players in the league on the back of Rodrigue Beaubois.

  • JeffShannonhouse

    Magic fan here: That most likely puts you at the top of Otis' list then. He's an assclown.

  • Stacy

    Can get a third team involved you idiot. Does Orl have a whole lot of choice in the matter? No. If they want something for his, they're at his mercy.

  • RQ

    One counter – LAL can't take on Hedo's contract. And they can't pull Paul-Kobe-Howard – it's either one or the other because they'll run out of assets; for that to happen two or three other teams would have to get involved, LAL would have to unload their entire front court (bynum, gasol, and odom), and the other teams would have to be fleeced – some combination of Rockets taking Gasol, Hornets taking a ton of players from the Rockets, and Orlando taking Bynum +  some fodder. 

    True that it's less than a 1% chance D12 goes to the mavs, but is the kitchen sink really that much worse than the Nets offer? Does Lopez even work in Orlando's system compared to a more defensive minded (admittedly old, no upside) C like Haywood? Mavs are running short on assets, true… but is it so far off that it's an impossibility?

    • Al

      Please tell me you are joking that Orlando would prefer Haywood to Lopez.  Its not even close.  And the nets have 2 draft picks in this years loaded draft.  The Lakers have the most to offer in terms of players and the Nets have the most in terms of giving the Magic a head start on rebuilding with taking Hedo's contract and lopez and the picks.  The Mavs have nothing really to offer but playing on a contender this year.  But at least he the Mavs are on the list

    • http://www.thetwomangame.com Rob Mahoney

      I think the Paul-Kobe-Howard trio would be very difficult to pull off, but if the Paul trade ends up going through with a similar structure (as has been indicated in various reports), Bynum alone could be enough to secure Howard. We'll see how the cards fall.

    • Jamie

      That is hilarious! Wow… do you watch Basketball at all? Haywood over Lopez? Lopez is young, consistently healthy and one of the best scoring C's in the league! Hahaha.

  • RQ

    I just think if DAL can get ORL under the cap this year by taking on obscene amounts of salary liability off of ORL's books, maybe that flexibility can drive the trade… getting under the cap is kind of the game changer under the new CBA, isn't it

    • Hector

      No, not really. The original post explains it perfectly. Nets for sure and possibly other teams could easily absorb the money that the Mavs can and actually offer substantial assets/picks that the Mavs cannot.

    • Don Hutson's Hands

      If Cuban was into taking on huge salary in this CBA, Chandler would be staying with the Mavs.

  • Doyle Rader

    Please tell me you wrote this to silence Mike Fisher.

  • RQ

    yeah, I mean, who are we kidding – the Nets will out-asset the Mavs any way you slice it.  Unless Fegan and Cuban have another team involved in some way (like this BULL trade that keeps popping up with Atlanta sending Josh Smith to ORL), it will just not happen. D12 in a lakers uniform is destined to happen.

  • CoL

    So Rob… enlighten me please.  Mavs let Chandler and many go to acquire “Financial flexibility”… how does signing VINCE CARTER to a multiyear contract  allow that?

    • Don Hutson's Hands

      This does seem confusing. Wonder the details.

      • Jared Tong

        I bet “multiyear contract” is something like a one year deal with an un-guaranteed or partially guaranteed deal next year.  Plus, as much as we all love Chandler this past year, he wasn't viewed as a game-changing deal last year.  It was a high upside deal that actually panned out.  Not sure Chandler is worth it to be paid around $13-$16 million a year the Knicks or Warriors are willing to pay when he plays a bit more than 30 minutes a game and gives you 10/10.  I think the Mavs are trying to spend money in the right way, i.e. spending those high dollar contracts on superstars rather than overpaying for sentimentality.

        • Guest

          Nice theory, unfortunately the Mavs most probably won't get these illusive superstars. Leaving 'win now'-mode at this moment is a mistake, unless fear of the new luxury has already become the overwhelming concern.

  • Mavs Rich

    In terms of a D12 trade, in all objectivity, only the Lakers and Nets
    can pull it off. If the Lakers acquire CP3 then only the Nets because
    when the smoke clears ORL will HAVE to take the best available deal and
    the Nets have it by a long shot.

    Most of us may not like Lopez – but only because we're annoyed and not being objective. He is young and productive in every area but D. He blocks shots. He is coachable. He is one of the best scoring C's in the league – just check the stats.

    I do think it will have to be deadline deal though. Much like Denver, Orlando will go back and forth right until the last minute when it sinks in that they have little choice going forward.

  • Jensen

    While the Mavs definitely do not have the same high value assets that the Nets and the Lakers can offer, the Magic may end up having to deal with Dallas anyway.

    If the revised Paul trade goes through and includes Okafor, then the Lakers won't have the TPE, attractive matching contracts, or the space to take on Hedo in a Howard deal.  Also there is good possibility that the revised deal includes a first rounder or two from the Lakers that would hurt their chances in the Howard deal.  But even if the new proposed deal doesn't include Okafor or first round picks, the numbers would be tight depending on what throw-in players are included because Gasol/Odom for Paul leaves an 11M TPE with Hedo's contract being 11M.  A Howard/Hedo for Bynum deal with the 11M TPE would still need to include another Laker contract worth at least 3M and they really have nothing attractive at that point.  And that's all assuming that the Lakers even want to try to swing another major deal after the Paul trade.

    On the other side, if the Nets get dinged for tampering which is a possibility, they'll lose a couple first rounders and possibly be prohibited from trading for or signing Howard.  Any of those punishments hurt their case for Howard and make resigning Williams more difficult.  But in order for any of that to happen, the Magic would need to file the tampering charges in effect rejecting any Nets trades for Howard.

    So in the end if Howard has picked out these three teams as the only trade spots he would sign with, Dallas may end up backing its way into the number one spot.  That doesn't make an older center (Wood), an expiring wing (Terry), some young players (Roddy, DoJo, and Mahinmi), and some late first rounders more attractive but it's better than getting Shaq'ed again.  We'll see.

    My guess is though that if the Nets don't sign Nene (who they've supposedly upped their offer to following the tampering story breaking) then the Magic will end up letting the tampering go (or use it as leverage in the deal to get a little more) and Howard will be a Net within the week.