Posted by Rob Mahoney on September 28, 2011 under Commentary | 
Without free agency to whisk away the interest of the basketball world, the non-negotiation headlines have been dominated by talk of who will play where. NBA players — or former NBA players? NBA players in remission? — are flocking to alternative leagues and markets for a chance to compete and stay fresh for a season that may never come. This is the relevant news of this particular moment in time, and it’s the reason why the newest Maverick, Rudy Fernandez, has served as the most newsworthy basketball player in Dallas. Dirk Nowitzki has been smothered with praise, but the man himself has been quiet save his EuroBasket stint. Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, and Shawn Marion have been off the radar. Tyson Chandler and J.J. Barea have been discussed as impending free agents, but only in distant, hypothetical terms. Caron Butler recently registered a blip by playing some pro-am ball, and the fact that a basketball player actually fulfilling his primary occupational function serves as news says all you really need to know about the lockout vacuum.
Fernandez is the only Maverick with an active story to be unfurled, and so the coverage naturally follows him. His future is of obvious interest to those in Dallas, the rest of the NBA front offices, and a particular club abroad, and though there’s still about a year’s worth of ticks on the clock before Fernandez has to decide where he’ll play next season, that eventual choice is still a topic worth hitting around a bit.
Eddie Sefko did just that over at the Dallas Morning News, primarily in response to a report from Jeff Caplan of ESPN Dallas that Fernandez would use his season (or partial season, if that be the case) in Dallas as a trial period:
Maybe there’s a legitimate reason why Mavericks’ guard Rudy Fernandez is signed and sealed to play in Spain as long as there’s no NBA season.
Maybe he wants to be near the homeland. Maybe he has personal reasons, which would be great.
But the guess here is it’s all about money.
Isn’t it always?
If the driving force behind Fernandez’s goals is to pile up as much Euros as he can, then the Maverickshave no chance of keeping the Spaniard beyond this season. But this stuff about Fernandez using this season as a gauge to see whether he wants to be in the NBA with the Mavericks or in Spain with Real Madrid is a bunch of … uh, stuff.
Will contract finances — which heavily favor Real Madrid’s pursuit of Fernandez’s services beyond this season — play into Rudy’s decision? Undoubtedly. Does that make the money the bottom line for a player who has publicly expressed frustration with his role and NBA comfort level in the past? Hardly. There’s no mutual exclusivity between money and actual basketball considerations; Fernandez is entitled to make a holistic decision based on every factor involved, and based on what we know of him from his tenure in Portland, all of those elements matter. If Fernandez opts to play in Madrid, it wouldn’t be solely because of the cash cow they’d cram into his locker. It’d be because he remained sour on the NBA experience because of his time in Portland and in Dallas, and in whatever cost-benefit calculus he engaged in, Real Madrid was the better choice.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on September 27, 2011 under Commentary |
Good intentions between player and team are wonderful and all, but J.J. Barea’s NBA future is entirely fluid. His ability to stilt opposing defenses with his dribble penetration gave Dallas’ playoff offense a valuable dimension; his stock skyrocketed with each high pick-and-roll and every improbable layup. Never has the basketball world thought more of this particular undersized scoring point guard than in the months fresh off of his team’s triumph, and though Barea Fever has dimmed slightly since he sliced through the Lakers’ defense in May, he’s still a valued commodity.
Barea is not just a quaint little player. He’s an NBA champion, and on some unknown timeline, an NBA free agent. He’s available for any team that’s interested, so long as they can convince him that he can find the same success with their club as he did in Dallas. The Mavericks are the handicapped favorites to retain J.J.’s services, but Barea is free to explore his options, and ultimately, to leave the Mavericks without any semblance of creation off the dribble in their regular rotation. Neither Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, nor any of the Mavs’ spot-up shooters did much to overtly attack the defense from the perimeter last season by way of their own creation. Terry and Kidd can run basic two-man action with Dirk Nowitzki or another Maverick big, but neither is a consistent threat to get into the lane and score.
Should Barea go, the Mavs would be at a bit of a loss in terms of replacing his contributions with the players in last season’s rotation. Which isn’t, however, to say that they would be completely without the means to replace such skills and production internally. What Barea offers the Mavs is not terribly unique, even if it may seem so in the context of the Mavericks’ regular 2010-2011 backcourt. Other players are theoretically capable of replacing him, and one such player happens to already be in a Maverick uniform, even if he rarely saw the court during Dallas’ title season.
Before we continue, let’s dispel one notion immediately: Rodrigue Beaubois, in the varied forms we’ve seen thus far, is not such a player. Beaubois may be the Maverick most likely to remind of Barea’s footspeed, but he lacks the basic drive-and-kick sensibilities that would make him immediately suited for such a role. Barea is a scorer first and passer second, but he still has a sense of how to use his own drives to set up his teammates. His vision isn’t remarkable, but Barea’s able to execute the kind of basic offense necessary to overcome his other limitations. The lanes and shots won’t always be there for Barea, but he generally — and there are certainly exceptions — has the good judgment to dig himself out of trouble with a kick to the corner.
Discretion isn’t exactly the backbone of Barea’s game, but he does have enough of it to thrive in his role for the Mavericks. If Beaubois were asked to fulfill a similar one, I worry about his ability to create for others. We know that a healthy Beaubois can hit from outside and drive to the rim. What we haven’t seen from him is a successful evolution of his passing game — even to Barea’s level. Beaubois’ basketball instincts guide the ball through the net, but only with his fingertips acting as the direct vehicle; his playmaking demonstrations have been rough up to this point, and unless he’s spending the off-season by drastically improving his passing and re-crafting his playing sensibilities, Beaubois would remain ill-suited to act as a Barea replacement for the immediate future.
Dominique Jones, on the other hand, could be up for the task. Jones’ cameo last season wasn’t exactly a resounding success, but his college career and NBA trial give plenty of reason to have more faith in his ability to create than Beaubois’. Jones would struggle in the NBA as a primary playmaker, but he’s more than capable of executing the same basic reads that made Barea a dual scoring/passing threat. The contrast would come in style more than substance; rather than darting around or between defenders, Jones combines bursts of speed with a solid frame and great positional strength. Not only can he finish after contact (or, could he finish after contact — the NBA learning curve made completing his drives a bit more difficult than it should have been last season, a flaw I anticipate will be corrected), but also effectively bull through defenders and draw in the entire defense’s attention. Jones would definitely bring a different approach to the same role, and unlike Beaubois, currently has all of the tools to pull it off.
This isn’t to say that Jones’ integration would be easy; retaining Barea provides the simplest way to preserve this type of overt offensive weapon, and throwing a second-year player into the fire so soon — particularly after playing so little during his rookie season — always comes with implicit risk. But should Barea leave, Jones would be the most natural internal replacement, and possibly even the most sensible one when cast alongside potentially pricey free agent alternatives.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on September 20, 2011 under Commentary, News |
According to the Associated Press, Rudy Fernandez’s deal with Real Madrid has finally been inked. With EuroBasket in the rearview mirror and the ongoing CBA negotiations at something of an impasse stateside, Fernandez found an alternative — but quite comfortable — home for the season to come.
That said, Fernandez’s contractual commitment to Real Madrid isn’t quite as significant as initially rumored. The AP report puts Fernandez with the club for the remainder of the locked out season with a mere option to return to the team next year. This is a significant departure to the rumored deal that would’ve locked up Fernandez in Madrid for the next four seasons (less whatever post-lockout NBA campaign exists). His momentum is no longer definite; gone is the wing with one foot out the door, and in is a free agent with a possibility of playing overseas. Those are two very different players and very different assets.
There remains a very strong possibility that Fernandez still bolts for Madrid at season’s end, but Dallas has been given the opportunity to convince him otherwise. That’s not nothing; the Mavericks are a first-class organization with luxurious player accommodations, a superstar player, fantastic systems on both ends of the floor, and a title to their name. They have a lot to offer, so long as Fernandez is listening. Perhaps he’s already decided in his basketballing heart of hearts to return to Spain — there’s nothing wrong with that, supposing that it doesn’t impact his NBA play this season as a result. But if there’s even the slightest chance that Fernandez remains in the NBA following the completion of his contract, I’d think that Dallas would be at least a bit alluring. Fernandez will have his options in free agency next summer, but the Mavericks are a good a fit as any.
Which, of course, supposes the Mavericks extended interest beyond this season. Perhaps Fernandez really was acquired as a contributing placeholder, meant to produce from the wing while Rodrigue Beaubois, Dominique Jones, and Corey Brewer inch toward reliability. All three of those players are candidates for regular minutes on the wing a year from now, a glut which honestly does make Fernandez a bit expendable. His potential departure wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world; there is nothing Fernandez does that can’t be replaced with pieces on the existing roster or through affordable free agent additions, and though the Mavericks are better off with Fernandez on the roster, they aren’t exactly sunk with him off of it. The choice of whether to remain in Dallas will likely be his, but contrary to earlier reports, that choice hasn’t already been made. Fernandez hasn’t been signed away by Real Madrid for the foreseeable future. He remains a legitimate piece in the Mavs’ plans going forward, albeit a flexible one with his own free agency.
Posted by Rob Mahoney on September 8, 2011 under Commentary |
Over at ProBasketballTalk, we’re looking at every NBA team’s post-lockout plan of attack. I wrote on what we should expect from the Mavs once a new collective bargaining agreement is finally in place, with the spotlight fixed firmly on free agency:
When the lockout ends, the Mavericks need to… Choose one of the following paths: (1) re-sign Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler, and possibly J.J. Barea in order to maintain their current competitive core, (2) re-sign either Chandler or Butler while covering for the other’s loss with positional depth, or (3) let both Chandler and Butler walk while bracing for a bit of a drop-off. Dallas’ off-season — in whatever form the lockout allows — leans heavily on free agency and the decisions made by all parties within it.
Losing Butler would be a shame, but losing Chandler would legitimately move the franchise down a peg in terms of their immediate competitive worth. Brendan Haywood is a good, starting-caliber center (regardless of what his 2010-2011 production would have you believe), but Chandler is a talent who can elevate a team’s collective defense while augmenting their offensive flow. Players like that don’t come around often, and as the Mavs will find out shortly, they don’t come cheap.
Check out
the full post over at PBT, complete with the obligatory call for more minutes for the young guys, the slightest championship gloating, and more rumination on Caron Butler’s value.