Johnny Ludden, Yahoo Sports: In a lot of ways, Nowitzki is not unlike David Robinson before Tim Duncan joined his side. Robinson waded through the same torrent of criticism each year the Spurs went out early in the playoffs. Many times, it should have been an indictment on the supporting cast around him rather than his own shortcomings. The soft label has never really fit Nowitzki, no matter how many times someone tries to hang it on him. He plays tough. He plays clutch. This series offered more evidence. In three of the Mavs’ four victories, Nowitzki scored 18, 14 and 14 points in the fourth quarters. On Thursday, the Blazers’ Chris Johnson raked Nowitzki across the face, a flagrant foul that left Nowitzki sprawled on his back. After a few moments, Nowitzki picked himself, made both free throws then promptly stuck a step-back jump shot. The next time down the floor, he drove for a reverse layup. ‘Toughness doesn’t always mean throwing a punch back,” Chandler said. “It means getting up and going at ‘em even tougher. … Dirk got up. Instead of getting in some dumb altercation, he said, ‘All right, I’m going to punish you.’’”
Eddie Sefko, Dallas Morning News: “As the Maverickswere leaving the court after ending Portland’s season, some of the Blazer fans were understandably yelling at them. But the message wasn’t one of anger. ‘They were great,’ Dirk Nowitzkisaid of the fans. ‘When we won and were walking off the court, a lot of them were yelling ‘go beat LA.” The Mavericks will give that their best shot, of course, but they understand that it will not be easy. They went 1-2 against the Lakers in the regular season and everybody knows that beating the two-time defending champions is going to be a huge challenge.”
The Brothers Kamenetzky, Land O’ Lakers: “Zone Defense. The Mavs play a ton of it, and with a great deal of success and, unlike many other squads, a great deal of pride.Rick Carlisle has used it to take advantage of their frontcourt length and protect his smaller lineup, too, all with positive results. Dallas finished the season just behind the Lakers in defensive efficiency (102.3 points allowed per 100 possessions), and while they don’t dominate in any particular statistical category, the Mavs are a top 10 bunch in opponent’s field goal percentage, three point percentage, free throws allowed, and defensive rebounding percentage. The Lakers, a mediocre jump shooting team often too easily seduced into taking them, will need to show discipline offensively in attacking it.”
Kevin Pelton, Basketball Prospectus: “That said, I’m open to the criticism that I’ve spent too much time talking about the Blazers’ offense in this series and not enough on their defense. Scroll back up and check out the offensive ratings in this game, both well over 120. That should be more than good enough for Portland to win at home. Why wasn’t it? In addition to the hot shooting of Nowitzki and Terry, the two key factors were the Mavericks’ offensive rebounding (12 second chances in 38 attempts) and their excellent turnover rate (nine in the game, but just three during the first three quarters). Both Zach Lowe of the Point Forward and Benjamin Golliver of Eye on Sports have noted recently that the Blazers were unable to force turnovers in this series the same way they did during the regular season, especially after dealing for Wallace. Not only did that mean fewer empty trips for Dallas, it kept Portland from getting easy opportunities in transition.”
Ben Golliver, Eye on Basketball: “His team was favored heading into the series so Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle isn’t likely to be showered in praise. He should be, though, as his team made all the necessary adjustments as this series unfolded. The Mavericks eliminated easys buckets for LaMarcus Aldridge, forced the Blazers to hit three-pointers, limited their turnovers and remembered to run their offense late. He threw wrinkles at the Blazers by mixing up his defensive assignments and was able to get production from his bench even though J.J. Barea had a forgettable series and Terry was a bit up and down. Most of all, he kept things together after a giant momentum swing following Portland’s dramatic come-from-behind Game 4 win. A much bigger test awaits in Los Angeles, but he aced this one.”
Dave, Blazersedge: “The reality of this series was that Portland always occupied the back seat while Dallas drove. The Blazers came in as a 6th seed with 48 wins. They played like a 6th seed with 48 wins. If there’s a critique to be offered it’s that, aside from 13 magical minutes in one of the most improbable finishes in league history, they couldn’t rise above themselves. Portland lost on the road against good teams during the regular season. They did in the playoffs too. Portland went through offensive dry spells in the regular season. Ditto here. Portland had trouble handling the pick and roll during the regular season, also in the playoffs. If anything, Portland appeared to play much of the last two weeks as if the games were a series of regular season matchups. Dallas, on the other hand, brought intensity, fire, timing, and extra guts to go along with their skill. The result? Portland’s normal advantages barely applied whereas Dallas excelled at theirs.”
You know the drill. The Difference is a reflection on the game that was, with one bullet for every point in the final margin.
It’s hard to be too shocked over the Mavs’ Game 6 victory given the way they’ve performed in this series, but relief certainly seems apt at this point. Kindly disregard the “playoff demons” pseudo story; that relief has nothing to do with 2006 or 2007, doesn’t feature the word “finally,” and honestly has nothing to do with anything save for this year’s Mavericks and this year’s Blazers. Brandon Roy’s emergence as a factor in this series was rather unlikely to begin with, but his supernatural effectiveness on his home court did introduce some reason for uncertainty. Dallas’ general reluctance to work through Shawn Marion as much as they should have (particularly when Gerald Wallace was off the floor or matched up with someone else) had the potential to create problems if Jasons Kidd and Terry had coinciding poor performances. Dirk Nowitzki’s slightly low shooting percentages in the majority this series weren’t a problem, per se, but could have been. I saw all of these things — along with an evaporating lead, stints of fantastic team defense followed by lackluster stretches, LaMarcus Aldridge facing up and attacking Brendan Haywood, Gerald Wallace being, frankly, dominant in Game 6 — and wondered if Dallas and Portland weren’t due for a Game 7. Apparently they weren’t. The Mavs got the stops they needed (though they essentially played chicken with Wesley Matthews’ three-point stroke to do so – it’s not a strategy I’d necessarily recommend), and got huge buckets from Kidd, Terry, Marion, and naturally, Dirk. The stars didn’t align to extend the series, the better team did what was necessary and took the ball out of the hands of Portland’s most capable scorers as much as they could, and things unfolded in the manner the first five games of the series predicted they would. It’s great to be wrong.
Nowitzki’s point total had the benefit of some late-game padding, but he was sensationally effective in the first half, and…oddly unneeded for most of the second. Nowitzki didn’t score a single point during the Mavs’ third quarter run, as Kidd played a masterful 12 minutes (four points, 2-3 FG, four assists), Terry scored eight points in just over six minutes, Marion cleaned up where he could, and Chandler finished inside. The franchise centerpiece functioned as an effective decoy, as the Mavs managed to build a 17-point lead without Dirk having to lift a finger on offense. There was some good semi-transition action to facilitate Dallas’ flow, but even their halfcourt play during the third quarter gives reason for optimism in the second round; the Mavs need those multiple points of attack if they’re going to hang with the Lakers.
The zone is still looking strong. It didn’t “stop” the Blazers’ offense, but it did generate empty possessions. Portland had a lot of trouble hitting any of their jumpers against the zone, and though Dallas naturally went back to their man-to-man coverage, Portland never could find their rhythm against the zone. The shift to man defense came of the Mavs’ own volition, a fact which shouldn’t be overlooked; Dallas was able to control the game with their choice of defensive strategy.
Tyson Chandler (nine points, seven rebounds, one block) and Brendan Haywood (zero points, three offensive boards, four total rebounds) again defended LaMarcus Aldridge effectively in the post. Aldridge eventually established a good offensive rhythm by facing up against the Maverick bigs on the wing, but those jumpers and drives are shots Dallas could — and did — live with. Obviously one would prefer that Chandler and Haywood contest those attempts as best they could, but the fact that Dallas almost completely removed Aldridge from the game as a post-threat was, and is, pretty significant.
Gerald Wallace (32 points, 10-17 FG, 12 rebounds, one turnover) played a tremendous game, and I’m curious how Dallas would have fared had Wallace been available in the second quarter. Wallace’s back seized up after his initial run, and he retired to the locker room for the duration of the second frame. He returned, naturally (I’ve never known mortal injury to even deter Wallace), but not before the Mavs had outscored his Blazers 33-16 in the second. Wallace had 16 points and six rebounds in the first quarter, seven points and four rebounds in the third, and 12 points and two rebounds in the fourth. Considering how poorly Nicolas Batum and Rudy Fernandez played and have played in this series, Wallace’s 12-minute unavailability could be seen as a back-breaking moment for Portland. Dallas fully recovered from their early deficit during that crucial second quarter, and established the momentum they carried through the third. Playoff “what ifs” are a futile exercise to a degree, but Wallace’s absence was conspicuous, and his production (not to mention his defense) sorely missed.
If you’re of the opinion that J.J. Barea may have played a bit too much, I’d encourage you to reconsider. He did introduce some defensive difficulties at times (the Mavs were forced to double down when Barea was being attacked in the post, for example) but he had productive stints in the second and fourth quarters. Seven points, four rebounds, and four assists without a turnover is pretty solid production in a game of this pace, and the quality of looks he generated — particularly in the second quarter — was impressive. Regardless, I’m sure his minutes will dip a bit as Rodrigue Beaubois is reintegrated into the rotation.
Pour one out for Portland — the Blazers are a fine team, a well-run organization, and an opponent worthy of respect. They didn’t quite have the depth nor the defense (What on earth happened to the Blazers’ turnover-inducing ways?) to extend the series, but this was a hell of a way to kick off the playoffs, regardless of the outcome. LaMarcus Aldridge is a legitimate star, and taps into the basic basketball desire for a do-it-all big man. Brandon Roy provided the postseason’s best individual narrative blip, and turned in as dominant of a fourth quarter showing as I’ve seen. Gerald Wallace and Wesley Matthews are the kinds of entertaining, effective, and relentless players that any team would be lucky to have. Andre Miller and Marcus Camby are somehow still criminally underrated, and managed to fly under the radar in this series despite making a genuine impact. It’s been another long, trying season for Portland, but for us basketball fans enjoying from afar, it’s been a treat to watch the franchise-wide resilience. Keep on keepin’ on, BlazerNation.
You know the drill. The Difference is a reflection on the game that was, with one bullet for every point in the final margin.
Let this game be known henceforth as the “Oh, the Mavs have Tyson Chandler” Game. TC has been a crucial part of this team all season, and his heralded work on the defensive only constitutes part of his success. This was the full Chandler experience, something unfelt and unseen in the first four games of this series due to foul trouble, a lack of emphasis on establishing Chandler as an offensive option, and TC’s own offensive complacency. Rick Carlisle and the Mavs coaching staff clearly identified that problem and sought to correct it, as Dallas consciously made an effort to get the ball to Chandler early and often. From there, Chandler built on his touches with one of the finest offensive rebounding performances I’ve ever seen, and the most prolific in Maverick playoff history. He was single-handedly responsible for Dallas’ monstrous 41.7 offensive rebounding rate, and demonstrated a complete mastery of the tap-out; every board that Chandler couldn’t claim outright was tipped, pushed, or swatted in the direction of a teammate. On Monday night he was able to secure the board or redirect it to a teammate 13 times in an 83-possession game, which sounds impossible but apparently isn’t. Just insanely effective board work from Chandler on top of great scoring (14 points on four shots) and fantastic post defense.
About that defense: Chandler and Brendan Haywood both did a tremendous job of limiting LaMarcus Aldridge in the post, marking the third game in a row that the tandem was able to hold Aldridge to under 43 percent shooting from the field. Aldridge’s point totals have dropped in each game of the series so far: from 27 to 24 to 20 to 18 to most recently, just 12. I wouldn’t expect Aldridge’s scoring production to get any lower than his Game 5 total, but the Mavs’ defensive improvement in that matchup has been remarkable, particularly when considering just how prolific Aldridge was in the first two games of this series and against Dallas in the regular season. Halting Aldridge isn’t always enough, but it’s a valuable foundation for building up the team defense on the whole.
Aside from Andre Miller’s mind-boggling drives to the rim and Gerald Wallace’s uncontested opportunities in transition, the Blazers really didn’t have much offensive success at all. Aldridge was, as noted above, limited by terrific defense. Brandon Roy wasn’t given the same free rein to drive and kick that he was in Game 4. Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, and Rudy Fernandez had their opportunities limited against both the Mavs’ oppressive zone and swarming man-to-man configurations. There was little rhythm to anything Portland did on the offensive end, and Dallas refused to bail them out with purposeless fouls and free trips to the free throw line. 98.8 points per 100 possessions is a fantastic defensive mark, and the Mavs rightfully earned it with their effort and execution. This is the kind of performance that renews faith — not only in the fact that Dallas can win another game in this series and advance to the second round, but that they’re capable of competing beyond the ending of this series.
Jason Kidd scored four points, but as is usually the case, it didn’t matter. His 14 assists and seven rebounds more than made up for any perceived scoring deficit, and made those three-point-heavy outings to start the series seem like a thing of the past. I’m sure the Mavs are pleased that the offense need not rely so heavily on Kidd for scoring; team-wide scoring balance is just more fun, and having so many players producing efficiently gives Dallas much greater operational latitude. Plus, while those scoring outbursts from Kidd were quite helpful in the Mavs’ early-series cause, Kidd also had a tendency to chase shots. Even veterans are vulnerable to heat checks, and Kidd was attempting two or three rushed attempts a game in an attempt to hold on to whatever jumpshooting magic had enchanted him. Those heat checks are gone — as are most of Kidd’s shots — because the Maverick offense has returned to a more natural state, and is functioning as efficiently as ever.
Dirk Nowitzki didn’t allow Portland to double team him. He was incredibly decisive, and on the catch, almost immediately committed to a full-on drive towards the rim or a pull up jumper. There’s a certain elegance to Nowitzki’s slow-motion game; the way he measures up defenders, ball fakes into open space, spins, and counters is an artful dance. Yet when Nowitzki takes this more direct, aggressive approach, he sacrifices a bit of the artfulness in his game in order to maximize production. It’s a shame, but a necessary shame; Dallas needs wins and they need Nowitzki to be highly effective, and attacking the defense before it has a chance to double is a terrific way to achieve both ends.
I’m still shocked at how little of an impact the size of the Blazer guards has had on the series overall. Those matchups have been problematic for moments, but they’re clearly not go-to options; as much as Miller, Roy, Matthews, and Batum would love to pick on J.J. Barea in the post, Portland just hasn’t gone to that strategy with any frequency. Part of the reason is that Jason Terry has done a fantastic job of fronting, contesting the entry pass, and even bothering shots in the post. He’s been a passable post defender, which is all Dallas really needs him to be; with JET removed as a defensive liability down low and Beaubois still having yet to play a game in this series, Barea is the only clear matchup disadvantage in post-up guard play. Throw in the time that Barea spends guarding Rudy Fernandez (who doesn’t have the frame nor the proficiency to operate from the block), and it’s a bit more difficult for the Blazer guards to post up the Mavs than many — including myself — anticipated.
I still don’t understand why the Blazers have been so willing to switch and muddle their matchups. Dallas — particularly due to Jason Kidd’s patience — works diligently to exploit mismatches, and Dirk Nowitzki’s versatility makes those efforts especially worthwhile. Those switches don’t appear to be by design, but it’s certainly curious that they happen so frequently.
A really smart, effective game from JET. His three-point stroke was a bit errant (1-of-5 from that range), but he scored 20 points on 18 shots, made smart passes, found open space, and played defense. This wasn’t Terry as Fourth Quarter Hero, but simply Terry doing exactly what his team need him to do in an efficient manner. Jumpers from the short corner don’t make the highlight reel, but you have to appreciate these kinds of performances from JET.
Dallas didn’t solve their turnover problems, but they did eliminate Portland’s marginal (a word used as literally as possible) advantage. The offense “improved” by virtue of the defense; the Blazers and Mavs posted identical 14.5 turnover rates, negating any disadvantage that Dallas’ giveaways once held.
J.J. Barea had one of his better games of the series, despite scoring just four points on 2-of-6 shooting and picking up a single assist and a turnover to match. It’s just been that kind of series for Barea.
Much ado has already been made of a hard screen that Brian Cardinal set on Patty Mills in the closing moments of the game, with the verdict already set in stone. It’s a non-issue, honestly. Cardinal appears to have gotten in a bit of a cheap shot, sure, but Mills was also guilty of that same zeal in his full-court press. Plus, as is usually the case with the biggest hits on screens, the problem is largely one of communication; Mills wasn’t hit so much as blindsided, and the fact that Cardinal put a little more into it than was necessary is really secondary to the fact that no one told Mills he was about to get creamed. Cardinal’s pick was hardly out of line in the grand scheme of things, even though that fact matters little; the Blazers were already frustrated, and it’s understandable that they (and their fans) are looking for a rallying cry after a loss like this one. Now they have it. Remember the hard pick that no one bothered to tell Patty Mills about! Never forget the injustice of a halfcourt screen!
Ian Levy is the author of Hickory High, a contributor to Indy Cornrows, and a part of The Two Man Game family. He’ll be bringing his intelligent brand of — mostly quantitative — analysis here on a weekly basis. You can follow Ian on Twitter at @HickoryHigh.
After Games 1 and 2, we met two lineups, The Grays and The Longs, and identified the utilization of each as an example of the approach the Mavericks and Blazers were bringing to this series. The part played by each unit changed dramatically over Games 3 and 4, again revealing a lot about the status of each team.
The Longs have essentially disappeared from Portland’s rotation, playing less than a minute together over the past two games. Nate McMillan obviously has some player combinations he likes better. He might want to take a look at these numbers, because despite taking both games in Portland, most of what he’s been trying hasn’t worked very well. The table below shows the five-man units Portland has used for at least three minutes over the past three games.
Lineup
Minutes
Poss. For
Poss. Opp
Pts. For
Pts. Opp
ORtg.
DRtg.
Net
Miller - Matthews - Wallace - Aldridge - Camby
53.17
91
90
96
98
105.5
108.9
-3.4
Fernandez - Roy - Batum - Wallace - Aldridge
15.65
28
27
33
41
117.9
151.9
-34.0
Miller - Matthews - Batum - Wallace - Aldridge
19.10
32
33
26
39
81.3
118.2
-36.9
Miller - Roy - Matthews - Wallace - Aldridge
11.63
22
20
32
18
145.5
90.0
+55.5
Miller - Matthews - Batum - Aldridge - Camby
9.80
16
17
20
25
125.0
147.1
-22.1
Fernandez - Roy - Matthews - Batum - Aldridge
5.22
8
9
10
8
125.0
88.9
+36.1
Fernandez - Roy - Batum - Wallace - Camby
3.06
6
5
5
5
50.0
100.0
-50.0
Over that stretch, only one lineup has consistently hurt the Mavericks. It’s the Andre Miller - Brandon Roy - Wesley Matthews - Gerald Wallace - LaMarcus Aldridge combination, which has outscored the Mavericks by 14 points across 11 minutes. Interestingly enough, this lineup only played 2 minutes and 48 seconds together during the Blazers fourth quarter comeback on Saturday.
The Blazers’ 20-point advantage in that quarter was built mostly by two other lineups. The Rudy Fernandez - Roy - Nicolas Batum - Wallace - Aldridge configuration was +7 over the first 6:28 of the 4th. The Roy - Matthews - Batum - Wallace - Aldridge lineup was +8 over a one-minute, 43-second span towards the end of the quarter. However, those two lineups have played another 18 minutes together across the rest of the series, in which they were outscored by Dallas by 13 points. The Blazers didn’t run away with the fourth quarter because they stumbled into an effective new lineup. Rather, a method they had tried previously began to click. For one quarter, Brandon Roy turned into Jerry West and Jason Terry turned into Darrick Martin, triggering a sudden change in the performance of a familiar lineup.
That the Blazers were able to come away with two wins at home will obscure the fact that they still aren’t playing very well. If we take away Brandon Roy’s magical fourth quarter in Game 4, we find that the Mavericks outscored the Blazers by 13 points over 7 quarters of play. The Blazers are still left with just one lineup that has been successful over a significant stretch in more than one game.
The table bel0w shows the same lineup information for the Mavericks, covering the last three games.
Lineup
Minutes
Poss. For
Poss. Opp
Points For
Points Opp
ORtg.
DRtg.
Net
Kidd - Stevenson - Marion - Nowitzki - Chandler
26.13
42
41
41
37
97.6
90.2
+7.4
Kidd - Terry - Marion - Nowitzki - Chandler
17.06
30
32
36
45
120.0
140.6
-20.6
Barea - Terry - Stojakavic - Nowitzki - Haywood
18.30
31
31
47
39
151.6
125.8
+25.8
Barea - Terry - Stojakavic - Marion - Haywood
9.75
18
19
18
14
100.0
73.7
+26.3
Kidd - Terry - Stojakavic - Nowitzki - Chandler
11.00
21
19
31
19
147.6
100.0
+47.6
Kidd - Terry - Marion - Nowitzki - Haywood
9.00
17
14
19
13
111.8
92.9
+18.9
Kidd - Terry - Stojakavic - Marion - Haywood
7.55
13
13
10
12
76.9
92.3
-15.4
Kidd - Barea - Terry - Nowitzki - Haywood
7.20
12
12
15
8
125.0
66.7
+58.3
Kidd - Barea - Stojakavic - Nowitzki - Haywood
4.37
8
9
11
13
137.5
144.4
-6.9
Kidd - Terry - Stojakavic - Marion - Chandler
4.59
8
7
7
11
87.5
157.1
-69.6
Barea - Terry - Marion - Nowitzki - Chandler
5.23
9
10
3
11
33.3
110.0
-76.7
The Grays (the Jason Kidd - Jason Terry - Shawn Marion - Dirk Nowitzki - Tyson Chandler lineup we identified as a key factor in Game 1) have been ineffective to say the least, being outscored by nine points over a span of a little more than 17 minutes. This is one of the player combinations Rick Carlisle relies on in crunch time, which makes it unsurprising that Dallas has struggled late in games (the Mavericks have been outscored by 22 over the last two fourth quarters).
That ineffectiveness shouldn’t be a huge concern for the Mavericks. Most of their negative differential comes from a roughly five-minute stretch in the fourth quarter of Game 4, when they were outscored by 13 points due to Roy’s hot hand and their own failures to execute on offense. Over that stretch, Roy scored 12 points and assisted on two other baskets, while the Mavericks couldn’t create a single shot attempt for Nowitzki, turned the ball over twice, and attempted five long jumpshots.
Roy’s explosion has changed the series, but that doesn’t mean it’s a permanent course correction. The Mavericks have still been the better team for most of the four games, narrative intrigue be damned. Additionally, his performance could have some unintended side-effects. When Roy was producing less, his role in the Blazers’ offense was defined. Tonight, Nate McMillan will have to decide how much to let what happened in Game 4 change the way the Blazers attack the Mavericks. This could potentially be good news for Dallas; Roy seems unlikely to produce at the same level, but will probably see more minutes and use more possessions. He’s has been a shell of his former self for all but the most recent 15 minutes of this season. He was largely the difference the Blazers were able to even the series, but those 15 minutes are not a large enough sample size to convince me he’s ready to pull that off two more times.
I realize I’m looking at two tough losses with rose-colored glasses; I can’t help it. After two close losses in Portland, everywhere I look I see roses.
We’re two days removed from Brandon Roy’s storming of the Bastille, and everything since still seems like an epilogue. The lack of actual game action is the most obvious reason why; with nothing more recent to obscure the memory, Roy’s Game 4 ascendancy is the last vivid element to drive the Mavs-Blazers narrative. Dallas frittered away a 23-point lead, and the players and coaches are reminded of it with every bit of glowing admiration for Roy, every SportsCenter hit, and every feature headline — as they damn well should be. The Mavs ceded to Roy the right to be the defining story of Game 4 and the entire series, and in doing so, cast themselves in a role that has been foreign given their position over the last four seasons.
As of right now, your Dallas Mavericks are the bad guys. I’ve made mention in the past (and particularly over the last two seasons) of Dallas’ potential for villainy, but this new role is something completely different; the Mavs may have been villainous by stealing emotional wins on the road or breaking opponents’ streaks, but at the moment they’re adversaries of a fundamentally shallower characterization. Against all odds, the Blazers — led by a talented, upright individual on his way to redemption following an Act 2 strife — overcame an incredible deficit over a superior team. There were reaction shots. Framed images of the scoreboard’s clock, ticking closer and closer to zero. Slow motion clips of Roy’s crossovers, drives, and jumpers underneath goosebump-inducing melodies. Game 4 was a contest of great cinematic importance, and if Roy and the Blazers were celebrating their amazing moment in the spotlight, the Mavs were necessarily the team in black, taken down by their own hubris in the face of Roy’s virtue.
Luckily, playoff series’ are so rarely defined by a single narrative arc. There are shifts abound, as the various characters involved each impact the matchup in their own way. Roy was magnificent down the stretch on Saturday, but could very well revert to being unexceptional tonight. He could fade into the background — or stick out sorely in the foreground with an inefficient, high-usage outing — and return the series to its earlier dynamic. Roy’s Game 4 performance is a necessary part of the series canon (and may endure regardless of the eventual victor), but Dallas isn’t doomed to be the capable team that fumbled away a big lead and an even bigger opportunity against a heart-warming story; now that the latest episode is complete, the Mavs have an opportunity to move on. Roy smiled and the credits rolled, and tonight’s game brings an opportunity to begin anew.
You know the drill. The Difference is a reflection on the game that was, with one bullet for every point in the final margin.
The Mavs will leave Portland wondering what could have been. After coughing up a very winnable Game 3, Dallas concluded Game 4 by surrendering a 23-point second half advantage in most implosive fashion. On the bright side: the series isn’t over, despite the appeal of hyperbolic overreaction. On the down side: the series isn’t over, and Dallas wasted two distinct opportunities to effectively end it. Many Mavs fans are understandably shaken following the team’s incredible second half letdown on Saturday, but the series is only beginning; at two wins apiece, Dallas and Portland have only shortened the contest after resetting the balance. There are more opportunities still, and two more games to be played in the comfort of American Airlines Center. It may be hard to find optimism in such dire times as these, but those still pulling for Dallas should embrace the self-contained nature of each playoff game. There’s a natural momentum and course to the series as a whole, but as long as the Mavs can clear their heads and prepare adequately, there’s no reason why any of Game 4’s maladies should linger into Game 5 or beyond. Look forward, if only because looking back into the core of a team that blows a 23-point lead may be a bit too depressing.
The biggest swings came in the third and fourth quarters. The Mavs completely dominated the third with their performance on both ends of the court. Thanks to a balanced offense and a stifling defense, Dallas was able to rattle off separate 10-0 and 9-0 runs on their way to a 30-14 frame. It’s no coincidence that Shawn Marion was heavily involved in the Maverick offense in that 12 minutes. Marion finished with eight points and seven rebounds in the quarter alone, marks made even more impressive by the game’s slow pace. He went to work on the left block — as Marion is ought to do, when given the opportunity — and scored over a cast of undersized defenders. It’s obviously not quite so easy for Marion to back down Gerald Wallace from the block, but Marion’s effectiveness in this stretch begs for the same commitment to exploiting his matches. When Jason Kidd recognizes that Andre Miller has switched to cover Dirk Nowitzki, Kidd cuts off the play to get Nowitzki the ball. The same needs to be true of Marion; when he’s matched up with Brandon Roy, Andre Miller, Wesley Matthews, or generally any player who isn’t Gerald Wallace or LaMarcus Aldridge, Marion needs to have an opportunity to work from the post. He’s the most reliable of all of the Mavs’ complementary scorers when working from that range, and his touches greatly enhanced Dallas’ third quarter production. Throw in eight points from Dirk, a quick-hitting six from Peja Stojakovic, and buckets from four other Mavericks, and the fruitful, widely distributed offense Dallas relied on in the third quarter began to take shape. The fourth period was a decidedly different story. One could see traces of the inevitable Blazers comeback at the end of the third, but the fourth quarter itself contained most of Portland’s incredible comeback. Brandon Roy (24 points, 9-13 FG, five assists, four rebounds) turned the game and the series off the dribble; the man without knees managed to drive past Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, and DeShawn Stevenson in order to score and dish to his heart’s delight. To say this was “vintage Roy” or a “throwback performance” would be a bit misleading; on the court for the Blazers was the actual 2009 Roy, in the flesh, having taken the place of his limited future self. It’s the only logical explanation. He was in true superstar form once again, and had a fourth quarter for the ages, a feat which I — among many, I’d presume — didn’t think Roy was capable. This league is better when Roy is performing at an All-World level, and when removed from the context of a series-turning loss, his revival was as relishable as it was unexpected. Yet when viewed as a part of one of Dallas’ most notable playoff implosions, Roy’s 18 points and four assists in the fourth quarter were just brutal. The efficiency. The creation. The drives, the shots, the set-ups. Roy murdered the Mavs in cold blood on his home court, though Dallas certainly played a part in their own death. Dallas shot 5-of-17 for the quarter (including 1-of-8 from three-point range) while turning the ball over four times, and not all of that is attributed to Portland’s strong fourth quarter D. The Mavs forced the action. They gave Jason Terry too many opportunities, perhaps, and Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion too few — though even I’m not convinced that the greatest offensive errors were in shot distribution. What was certain is that Dallas couldn’t establish the offense when it was in desperate need of flow, and could have — as they always could, really — operated through Nowitzki even more diligently. Simply: when the Mavs needed real execution, they fell. Some of the quality shots and passes and cuts and drives simply didn’t produce points, and that deficiency paired with the complete inability to defend Roy and the handful of giveaways limited the lifespan of the Mavs’ lead. Rest in peace, Game 4. Hopefully your benefactors won’t soon follow you to the grave.
Kevin Pelton, Basketball Prospectus: “[Nate] McMillan also changed his finishing lineup. While [Brandon] Roy got back on the court when the Blazers needed more shooters and ballhandlers to close out the game, Portland played with its starting lineup most of the stretch run, putting more size and rebounding on the floor. I’m not sure there was a verdict on that decision, as the teams played even during the stretch the Blazers used their starters. Over the course of the season, however, Portland has been much more effective with Aldridge at center and Wallace at power forward in a smaller, quicker unit. Looking ahead to Saturday’s Game Four, the Mavericks can feel good that they had a chance to steal a game in which the Blazers rode their crowd to an early lead. Dallas can also point to missed opportunities at the line, where they shot just 56.5 percent (13 of 23), including an atypical 4-of-7 effort from Nowitzki. Nonetheless, if Roy has found a way to contribute for Portland in this favorable matchup, that might prove the most crucial takeaway of all.”
Ben Golliver, Blazersedge: “Portland’s initial push came courtesy of Matthews, who practically refused to talk about his individual play after leading Portland with 25 points on 8-12 shooting. Thankfully, LaMarcus Aldridge was there to do it for him. ‘I think every game [this series] the team that’s won it has had someone play really, really well,’ Aldridge said. ‘Tonight it was Wesley.’ There’s been so much to like about Aldridge’s maturation this season but that quote is near the top. Aldridge, Matthews and everyone else with a pulse in the Rose Garden knows that the bulk of the headlines are going to Brandon Roy, who finished with 16 crucial points off the bench to help push Portland over the hump. But it was Matthews’ hot shooting that got Portland up early. 16 points in the first quarter. 22 points in the first half. Good shot selection (even including the heat checks, which you know are coming). Solid defense throughout the game on top of it. That Aldridge would single out Matthews with praise — despite his own success on the night and the mountain of questions about Roy — is a moment that will endure. Credit where credit is due. Recognition and rewards for those who have earned it.”
Tim MacMahon (and Ben Rogers), ESPN Dallas: “An object thrown from the Rose Garden stands hit Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban in the face during Thursday night’s Game 3 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers. The incident occurred midway through the fourth quarter after Cuban had been interacting with the fans in the section behind the Mavericks’ bench. Cuban was not injured. ‘I don’t know what it was, but something hit me in the face,’ said Cuban, who encouraged fans to boo him more by putting his hand by his ear. Extra security was assigned to the area behind the Mavericks’ bench for the remainder of the game. There were no other issues.”
You know the drill. The Difference is a reflection on the game that was, with one bullet for every point in the final margin.
Frustration is a natural precipitate of playoff basketball; combining two competitive entities in elemental form creates not only an expected solution, but a necessary, balancing byproduct. The glow of a win must stand against its opposite, so as Portland goes one way in victory, Dallas goes another. The Mavs are frustrated. Rick Carlisle is frustrated. You’re probably frustrated. There are plenty of reasons to be after Game 3, with the lost potential of a commanding 3-0 series lead perhaps chief among them. Many will point to questionable officiating (with a certain video replay call made in error as only the most obvious example). Others, perhaps, to lost opportunities at the free throw line. Yet the most frustrating aspect of all was a return to normalcy for both teams in the turnover column. Dallas ranked 21st in the league in turnover rate this season, while Portland ranked second in opponent’s turnover rate. That combination seemed highly reactive from the start, and yet the turnover battle was hardly an important part of the series narrative prior to Thursday’s game. Then Jason Kidd turned the ball over three times in the first quarter, reestablishing the season-long Maverick tradition of surrendering possessions midstream. Dallas posted a turnover rate of 18.8, their highest of the series and significantly more damaging than Portland’s 10.6 mark. Every reckless move fed the possibility of a Maverick loss, ultimately leaving the whole evening plump with the potential for disappointment. It’s just one loss, but it’s one loss that could have effectively ended the Blazers had the Mavs not participated in their own temporary demise.
As unfortunate as this loss was, those numerous frustrations aren’t guaranteed to persist; this one lost opportunity is no reason for legitimate despondency, considering how well Dallas played even in defeat. The Mavs can find solace in the fact that they generally worked their way into favorable shots, even after Jason Kidd (eight points, 3-9 FG, three assists, six rebounds, five turnovers) and Peja Stojakovic (seven points, 3-7 FG, three rebounds) returned to earth. Dirk Nowitzki (25 points, 10-21 FG, nine rebounds) was able to shoot a decent percentage from the field for the first time all series. Portland’s offensive rebounding was held to a reasonable level. Gerald Wallace and Nicolas Batum contributed during a crucial fourth quarter run, but were largely unproductive on offense. Even with the loss, there’s a lot to work with and plenty to look forward to in Game 4.
For a night, Jason Terry (27 points, 10-13 FG, 5-7 3FG, seven assists) walked on air. JET had played productive minutes in both Games 1 and 2, but his performance in Game 3 stands among the best by any player in this series thus far. Terry was the Mavs’ one consistent source of points, and he expertly used his defensive draw to set up teammates for easy scores. Just productive, heady play from a big-time playoff performer. Terry was able to fuel Maverick runs and keep the team afloat when the offense struggled, and while it’s a damn shame that Dallas couldn’t take full advantage of JET’s excellence, it was a treat to see Terry in optimal form.
Fittingly, JET was balanced by his positional counterparts; Wesley Matthews (25 points, 8-12 FG, 4-6 3FG, three assists) and Brandon Roy (16 points, 6-10 FG, four assists) were both fantastic for the Blazers, and together accounted for over half of Portland’s points. Roy will draw the primarily of the attention, as he transformed from self-pitying distraction to valuable contributor almost overnight. However, Matthews’ combination of three-point range, driving ability, and aggressive defense offers the greater long-term concern. Roy may have had a profound impact on this particular game, but he’s not at a point where he can be trusted to do the same on Saturday, much less for the rest of the series. Matthews, on the other hand, stays relatively constant in his effort, even if not his production. He can be a difference-maker with his hustle and defense alone, and when he’s dropping 25 on efficient shooting as well, he presents a rather substantial problem.
The Mavs’ defense was stifled by the Blazers’ impressive shot-making (as was the case with the Blazers’ D and the Mavs’ shot-making as well), but Brendan Haywood and Tyson Chandler did incredible individual defensive work against LaMarcus Aldridge. LMA still managed to get his, and several of his buckets were quite timely. That said, a few big baskets don’t erase Aldridge’s less efficient overall line; he may have scored a bit and even kept Chandler off the court by putting him in foul trouble, but his presence was significantly less taxing on the Dallas defense than it has been in games past. 30 minutes of Haywood typically isn’t conducive to effective play, but he filled in for Chandler admirably.
View Comments 
