The Difference: Dallas Mavericks 105, Washington Wizards 99

Posted by Rob Mahoney on February 27, 2011 under Recaps | View Comments

Box Score – Play-by-Play — Shot Chart – GameFlow

You know the drill. The Difference is a reflection on the game that was, with one bullet for every point in the final margin.

• Washington isn’t a particularly problematic matchup for Dallas, yet games between the two teams seem to be a bit more interesting than they should be. With a little over a minute and a half remaining in the fourth quarter, Jordan Crawford hit a pull-up jumper to erase the final points of the Maverick lead. Any team in the league can be dangerous in a one-and-a-half minute time frame, and facing that kind of scenario in a very winnable game is exactly what the Mavs should aim to avoid. Luckily, it didn’t matter; following Crawford’s make, Tyson Chandler scored on a tip-in, John Wall turned the ball over, and Dirk Nowitzki was fouled on a three-point attempt. That gave Dallas just the buffer they needed to secure a win, but this was far from a reassuring victory.
• The Mavs’ defense wasn’t poor per se, but it certainly wasn’t good. The buckets surrendered in transition to Wall et al are understandable, but the more glaring breakdowns were those that occurred in half-court settings. As usual, the initial contests were strong, but the inability to secure defensive rebounds make things unnecessarily difficult. The Wizards posted a 20.4 offensive rebounding rate, and that effort combined with  low turnovers and decent shooting made Washington unexpectedly competitive. The rebounding has to get better; if JaVale McGee and Kevin Seraphin are giving Dallas trouble on the glass, what happens when the Mavs play even stronger rebounding clubs?
• Tyson Chandler (23 points, 10-14 FG, 13 rebounds) was the game’s unquestioned standout, as the Wizards failed to account for his presence in any offensive setting. Just one dunk for your viewing pleasure:

Chandler’s most important bucket and his most emphatic bucket both came off of offensive rebounds, but Jason Kidd (three points, 14 assists, eight rebounds) set up Chandler for the bulk of his points. JaVale McGee is a skilled shot-blocker, but clearly lacks the defensive awareness to compete with a consistent lob threat.

• Dallas played as well in their transition offense as they have all season, and produced some truly beautiful sequences. The ball movement was terrific throughout the game, but particularly so as the Mavs looked to set each other up for fast break finishes like this one:
• Dirk Nowitzki (21 points, 6-18 FG, 9-11 FT, seven rebounds, three assists) had an understated impact, leaving Chandler, Shawn Marion (13 points, 4-6 FG, 10 rebounds, three turnovers), and Jason Terry (25 points, 10-18 FG, four assists) to soak in the limelight. Dallas doesn’t win this game without Nowitzki’s 11 free throw attempts, but Marion played a superb all-around game while Terry funneled in some efficient scoring to compensate for Nowitzki’s poor shooting night from the field. If I can dote on Marion’s game for just a second more: no Maverick does a better job of closing out on three-point shooters, and his speed and length paid off in challenging a Nick Young corner three attempt with under a minute remaining.
• Chalk this one up as the first big hiccup in Rodrigue Beaubois’ (two points, 1-7 FG, three rebounds, three assists) return. Beaubois played just 13 minutes of action, and Carlisle was right to keep his minutes down; the Mavs’ designated savior was drawing back rim on all of his jumpers, and blew a wide open layup attempt at the start of the third quarter. The Mavs even tried to run a staple alley-oop set from their 2009-2010 repertoire to get Beaubois going, but the set ended in a mistimed jump and a missed layup.

Gestaltwandler

Posted by Ian Levy on February 25, 2011 under Commentary | View Comments

Ian Levy is the author of Hickory High, a contributor to Indy Cornrows, and is now a part of The Two Man Game family. He’ll be bringing his intelligent brand of — mostly quantitative — analysis here on a weekly basis. You can follow Ian on Twitter at @HickoryHigh.

Last week, in looking at the possible impacts of Rodrigue Beaubois’ return, the impact of pace became a topic of interest. This season the Mavericks have played at an extremely slow pace. Going into the All-Star break they’ve averaged 90.5 possessions per game, 23rd in the league. Last season their pace factor was 92.5, still in the bottom half of the league but not nearly as slow as they’ve played this season. It hasn’t appeared to have a detrimental effect on their offensive efficiency; the Mavs are scoring 109.3 points per 100 possessions, the ninth best mark in the league.

One of the takeaways from last week’s Beaubois piece was how much the offensive pace changes for the Mavericks when he’s on the floor, particularly in three-guard lineups. His return may be only tangentially responsible, but it seems to be having the expected effect. By my calculations the Mavericks have averaged 98.2 possessions in the three contests since he returned.

This got me curious about the ability of a team to adjust their pace with different lineups. I started by looking at all the lineups the Mavericks have used this season which have played at least 30 minutes together. I then did a rough approximation of the pace factor for each lineup. These calculations are not exact because most lineups haven’t played the same number of offensive and defensive possessions. In order to estimate pace factor from the available data I took the average of each lineup’s possessions on both sides of the ball, and then looked at how many standard deviations the pace of each lineup was away from the Mavericks’ overall average pace for the season. The table below shows the results.

As you can see, the Mavericks have been remarkably consistent in their slow pace this season. It’s by a small margin, but none of these lineups have played at a pace one full standard deviation above or below the team’s average pace. Dallas hasn’t demonstrated much of an ability to use their personnel to change the tempo of a particular game or even a specific quarter. It’s entirely possible that this is by design, but we’ll talk about that in a minute.

The next step was to compare the Mavs to some of the other very efficient offenses in the NBA. I looked at Denver, Miami, Los Angeles, San Antonio, Houston, Oklahoma City, Phoenix, New York and Utah, which along with Dallas have the ten highest Offensive Ratings this season. I then did the same analysis for each team as for the Mavericks. There’s too much information to compile in one table, so if you want to see the raw data you’ll have to follow this link to the google spreadsheet.

I found that each of those other top-10 offensive teams had at least three lineups which played at one or more standard deviations above or below their team’s average pace. Every one of these teams (except the Mavericks) also had at least one lineup which has posted a positive net rating while playing at least one standard deviation above or below their team’s average pace.

The table below summarizes all the lineups for each team which have played a standard deviation above or below their team’s average pace and posted a positive net rating.

Some of those lineups are merely a memory after recent trades.

Having the ability to play at different tempos is not a prerequisite for being a top offense, but it seems to be an attribute most of them share. I also think it’s interesting that San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Miami all have intact lineups with positive net ratings at one standard deviation above AND below their average pace. These teams truly have the offensive versatility to be successful at any tempo.

You can look at the Mavericks’ situation in a couple of ways. Over the years they have acquired a roster of complimentary players whose offensive skills fit very well in a particular system. There is certainly no shame in sticking to that system, especially when it’s been successful enough to make them a top ten offensive team. You could make the argument that Dallas recognizes that they operate best playing the game at a certain speed and they make a point of maintaining that speed on a nightly basis.

The problem is that at some point that system is going to be stretched, forcing them to play the game at a different pace. I certainly don’t advocate Dallas changing their offensive style willy-nilly and wildly switching things up game to game. The pace they play at is a calculated decision that balances and feeds into what the team hopes to accomplish at both ends of the floor. However, having some additional flexibility when the playoffs roll around will allow Rick Carlisle to counter certain matchup advantages of their opponents as well use his personnel to exploit possible advantages in the other direction.

I do think it will be to their benefit to spend the next month and a half developing some lineups that are comfortable, confident and successful in an up-tempo game. Beaubois and some three guard arrangements seem like the most likely candidates. A path to the Western Conference Finals is likely going to involve matchups against at least two if not three of the teams we looked at here. These other teams are obviously comfortable playing at different speeds. Bending your opponent’s style of play to fit your own is an admirable goal but it can’t hurt for the Mavericks to start developing some contingency plans, just in case.

The Difference: Dallas Mavericks 118, Utah Jazz 99

Posted by Rob Mahoney on February 24, 2011 under Recaps | View Comments

Box Score — Play-by-Play — Shot Chart — GameFlow

You know the drill. The Difference is a reflection on the game that was, with one bullet for every point in the final margin…except this time, only kind of, and not really.

• Deron Williams is one of the best point guards in the league, and his absence for the Jazz — as he currently resides in trade limbo and will soon make his debut for the New Jersey Nets — significantly changed the way this game progressed and the way we should view it. If Utah had their complete roster (with Devin Harris and Derrick Favors) to work with, the Mavs would have faced significantly more resistance. However, a team with Earl Watson running the show is just a bit different than one with Williams or Harris at the helm. The Jazz had been pretty inconsistent this season with their team more or less intact, but to take away their best player and starting point guard — while Utah transitions into life after Jerry Sloan, no less — remove some of this win’s significance.
• Still, a game is a game, and there is some insight to be gleaned from 48 minutes against any team out there. Dallas had some trouble early on offense (primarily due to their eight turnovers in the frame, which were more their own doing than Utah’s), but really cranked up their production as the game went on. It’s the balance of this team that continues to surprise me; again, the Mavs had an impressive number (seven) of double-digit scorers to complement Dirk Nowitzki’s 23 points on 15 shots. The starters played well enough to keep their minutes down, and the reserves were rewarded with some extra playing time. High fives all around.
• The temptation to read too far into wins like this one is always present, and should put an asterisk on any conclusions you or I try to draw from this particular game. That said, I can’t help but wonder if the Mavs have finally found an offensive formula that really works. They don’t have that second star on-par with a Pau Gasol or a Paul Pierce, but by adding Rodrigue Beaubois (10 points, 4-6 FG, four assists) and Peja Stojakovic (18 points, 7-9 FG, 4-5 3FG) to the rotation while benefiting from more impressive contributions from J.J. Barea (13 points, 5-8 FG, five assists), Dallas has created an interesting scoring framework. I’m not sure all of Dallas’ scorers can be contained on a nightly basis, and though it’s not entirely necessary for opponents to systematically seek and destroy every scoring threat on the floor, there’s comfort in knowing that the Mavs will have most teams beat in scoring depth.
• Another interesting wrinkle to that idea is that it makes the Mavs much more difficult to scheme against. The San Antonio Spurs, for example, teched specifically against Jason Kidd and Jason Terry in last year’s playoffs. Their plan worked to great effect; the offense stalled when the pressure increased on Kidd, and San Antonio ensured that Terry wouldn’t provide Nowitzki with the scoring complement he so sorely needed. However, the Spurs looked positively puzzled when trying to defend Beaubois, and Caron Butler was able to explode for a few big scoring nights. Teams can try to take away certain elements of the Maverick offense, but if any team invests too heavily in trying to stop any player aside from Dirk, Rick Carlisle can call an audible and shift the offensive flow.
• Interesting note: Dallas shot 50% from the field or better in every quarter, and 57.9% from the field overall. That total is a season high.
• Stojakovic is a much better fit with this team than I imagined he would be. Considering his age and injuries, I expected Stojakovic to be a relatively stationary element of the offense; he seemed destined to be tethered to a corner and spot up ad infinitum. But what’s impressed me most has been Stojakovic’s movement. He’s not content to rely on others to create shots for him — he actively looks to create new passing angles and new open zones from the floor. His release is much quicker than that of, say, DeShawn Stevenson, and thus he’s a much better catch-and-shoot option than Stevenson when he’s running around screens or coming off a curl cut. Stojakovic is more than just a spot-up option, and his movement in the offense adds a pretty interesting dimension to this team.
• You’ll have to forgive me: the trade deadline beckons, and this installment of The Difference will have to be cut well short of its point-differential quota. Just imagine there are 12 more bullet points here, each a tribute to one of Brendan Haywood’s 12 on Wednesday. The guy is playing his best basketball of the season, and instilling new confidence in the non-starting end of the Mavs’ D5 rotation. Tyson Chandler, a motivated Brendan Haywood, and Ian Mahinmi — it doesn’t get much better than that.

The Difference: Dallas Mavericks 112, Phoenix Suns 106

Posted by Rob Mahoney on February 18, 2011 under Recaps | View Comments

Box Score — Play-by-Play — Shot Chart — GameFlow

You know the drill. The Difference is a reflection on the game that was, with one bullet for every point in the final margin.

• Kudos to the Mavs for not letting their focus stray during these final two games before the All-Star break, but the defense is clearly already on vacation. First, the Mavs allowed the Kings (sans Tyreke Evans) to put up some competitive offensive numbers, even if they sprinted away during the third quarter by getting a few stops. Then on Thursday night, the Mavs surrendered 110.4 points per 100 possessions to the Suns. Phoenix is, of course, a very good offensive team. Even without Amar’e Stoudemire, Steve Nash has this club clicking with the seventh best offense in the entire league. That said, Dallas is due for a good defensive win. The D has wavered in the last two months or so, and though the Mavs are still defending well enough to win, they’re likely not defending quite well enough for the coaching staff to sleep well at night. Pats on the back for another victory (the 40th this season), but this team needs to come back after the break with a focus on improving its defense to those early-season levels.
• Dirk Nowitzki (35 points, 13-18 FG, 3-3 3FG, four rebounds) has never been a kind matchup for the Suns, but this wasn’t just another exploitation of a mismatch. If there were any lingering questions concerning Nowitzki’s health, they were promptly dismissed each and every time Dirk graced the net with his jump shot. This was a far more focused Dallas offense in terms of scoring production (as opposed to the community effort against Sacramento), but even then, five Mavs (Nowitzki, Terry, Marion, Stojakovic, Chandler) scored in double-figures. It’s hard to evaluate this team properly over their last two games given the quality of defenses faced, but there are some great omens in the box score entrails.
• Rodrigue Beaubois (nine points, 4-10 FG, 1-4 3FG, two assists, two turnovers) again played around 20 minutes of action, but wasn’t quite as productive this time around. Carlisle threw Beaubois into the starting lineup, which could certainly be interpreted as a positive sign. However, in addition to the conditioning issues which will limit Beaubois in the immediate future (as well as any minute restrictions he may be under), it’s worth keeping an eye on his foul totals. Beaubois was known to get a little foul-happy last season, though his foul troubles were unique occasions rather than part of a trend. So far this season though, Beaubois is averaging 8.1 fouls per 36 minutes. He totaled five on Thursday night while playing less than half the game.
• Somehow, Steve Nash (15 points. 6-10 FG, 14 assists, five rebounds, three turnovers) has entered that strange phase in his career where people have a general conception of how good he is and used to be, but generally refuse to acknowledge him due to his team’s perceived irrelevance. Nash is playing as well as ever despite Stoudemire moving on, and truly hasn’t been lauded for that fact enough. He was as irrepressible as ever on Thursday; the impossible passes in traffic, the absurd layups that make Nash seem like a scholar in geometry, and the jumpers that — like that of a certain Maverick — seem to have no business going in. “Freeing Steve Nash” would be great and all, but I’m perfectly content to watch a great player be great, no matter the area code or win percentage.
• J.J. Barea missed the game with the flu, so Beaubois and Jason Terry (16 points, 5-12 FG, seven assists, three steals, two turnovers) each took care of the ball when Jason Kidd (six points, 2-8 FG, 12 assists, eight rebounds) rested. The offense overall returned to order, as Kidd transformed back into a primary playmaker, and the Dallas offense calmed down from their turnover-happy performance against Sacramento. The Mavs have always done well offensively by maintaining control, and Thursday night’s 12.5 turnover rate is much more in line with the expectation for this team.
• Another great game for the Mavs’ big-man tandem: Tyson Chandler (12 points, 5-8 FG, 12 rebounds) resumed his season of offensive import, while Brendan Haywood (seven points, five rebounds, one block) capitalized on the Suns’ poor interior rotations in limited minutes (11). That said, Carlisle elected to go small for significant portions of this game, and utilized both Nowitzki and Shawn Marion (12 points, 6-10 FG, eight rebounds) as the primary big. Against Phoenix, that’s not much of a problem, and Dallas had some success in those configurations, particularly with a Kidd-Terry-Stevenson-Marion-Nowitzki lineup that made a 9-0 sprint late in the third quarter.

The Difference: Dallas Mavericks 116, Sacramento Kings 100

Posted by Rob Mahoney on February 17, 2011 under Recaps | View Comments

Box Score — Play-by-Play — Shot Chart — GameFlow

You know the drill. The Difference is a reflection on the game that was, with one bullet for every point in the final margin.

• Dallas won by a wide margin, but Dirk Nowitzki scored just 13 points. Jason Kidd was the Mavericks’ leading scorer. J.J. Barea and Brendan Haywood were the only Mavs with double-doubles. This game was interesting for reasons that stretched far beyond the return of Rodrigue Beaubois (13 points, 6-13 FG, six assists, three steals, three turnovers), and the Mavs’ dominance was far greater than the impact of their young hope. Beaubois’ return was noteworthy for his individual efforts, but the Mavs played a pretty dominant offensive game overall. We can pick nits — the turnovers got a bit out of hand at times and Dallas rarely got to the line — but it’s hard to ask for more than eight double-digit scorers and a 62.8 effective field goal percentage. Bellissimo.
• Barea has was easily the Mavs’ most impressive player. The 10 assists don’t mislead in the slightest; Barea’s vision was truly special in this one. He made phenomenal feeds to cutters, to shooters, to open dunkers — this was a remarkable playmaking performance unlike anything we’ve seen from Barea in recent memory. He’s done fine work as an efficient scorer in the last few weeks, but this showing was of an entirely different grain.
• Another funny thing about Barea’s fantastic game? He wasn’t even supposed to show up to work on Wednesday. Barea had been held out of practice because of a groin injury and a case of the flu. Ain’t no thang, apparently.
• 20-point performances from Kidd are always notable, as are games where any player — Kidd or otherwise — goes 6-of-7 from three-point range. And surprising though it was that Kidd was such so accurate, it was just as unusual that he kept firing away. Kidd took six three point attempts in the third quarter and though it’s a good thing for the Mavs that he did, that’s not a frequency in shot attempts that can be found on a game-by-bame basis.
• Dallas’ final defensive numbers turned out just fine, but overall this was not one of their finer outings on that end. There were some notable individual efforts — Tyson Chandler, in particular, did a great job on DeMarcus Cousins (16 points, 6-19 FG, 12 rebounds, four assists, seven turnovers). It just didn’t add up to anything more. The offense was in gear for most of the game, but this was far from a complete game.
• That’s one reason why Jermaine Taylor rattled off a career-high 17 points on just 12 field goal attempts, with five assists as the cherry on top. The Mavs aren’t far removed from the team that used to allow opposing wings to have career nights like Taylor’s on a frequent basis, but this season that’s been a bit of a rarity. Dallas’ defense hasn’t been air-tight throughout the year, but it’s certainly been more effective in limiting those singular, explosive performances.
• The Mavs’ rotation looked as deep as ever. Not only did Beaubois’ return give Dallas a solid scoring boost, but Haywood’s (12 points, 5-8 FG, 10 rebounds) activity level was off the charts relative to his usual performance this season. His righty hook might still cue an arena’s worth of winces, but when he’s moving on offense and rebounding this consistently, Haywood gives his team a huge boost.
• The Mavs made the most significant run of the game — a 9-0 spurt at the tail end of the third quarter — came with Dirk Nowitzki sitting on the bench. Nothing quite like fresh air, eh?
• We’re still feeling out how Peja Stojakovic (12 points, 5-11 FG, 2-5 3FG, four rebounds) will function as a member of this team, but the early signs are pretty positive. His defense has been fairly competent for the most part, or at least competent enough that it hasn’t caused significant problems. His shooting stroke seems to be coming around, and this type of performance gives even more reason to hope for improvement. I’m not sure how the shot distributions will shake out once Beaubois becomes a regular, but if the ball winds up in Stojakovic’s hands for about 10 attempts a night, the Mavs could gain plenty from his contributions.
• Keep in mind, though, that Jason Terry and Dirk Nowitzki only attempted 10 field goals apiece in this one. Those numbers are going to rise, and though more shots can be reallocated from other places, the offense can’t be expected to be quite so balanced nightly.
• Plenty more to come on Beaubois’ evening a bit later, but something should be said of his patience. Beaubois’ attempts were high-percentage looks. He took threes, but only open ones. He didn’t settle for mid-range jumpers, instead opting to put pressure on the Kings’ defense. He attacked the basket frequently in transition, often triggering the one-man fast break a la Tony Parker and Devin Harris. For a player facing heavy expectation on his first day back, it’s commendable that Beaubois stuck so steadfastly to efficient offense.
• In terms of actual skill, Beaubois barely showed any rust at all. He phased out on defense at times, but he was guilty of that during his rookie season as well. Conditioning was certainly an issue, albeit a temporary one. As Beaubois works up to NBA speed, he’ll become more effective on both ends and — one can hope — a candidate for more significant minutes. Still, 21 minutes in his debut is a pretty great sign for Beaubois’ place in Carlisle’s rotation.
• It’s hard to pinpoint the exact nature of the Mavs’ turnover problems (five different Mavs had three turnovers apiece), but the easiest diagnosis is simple sloppiness. Some plays were overly ambitious, others lazy. Overall it’s not too much to worry about, but even veteran teams with experienced point guards running the show can fall into these ruts for games at a time.
• That said, the same willingness to share the ball that burned the Mavs on many occasions is also what pushed the team to a total of 34 assists despite Kidd functioning as a gunner.
• Another notable thing about Beaubois’ return: Rick Carlisle wasn’t shy in the slightest about putting the ball in his hands to trigger the offense. Even with Kidd on the floor, it was Beaubois who ran the pick-and-roll, initiated plays, and brought the ball up-court.
• On the New York Times’ Off the Dribble blog, I outlined why starting in the NBA isn’t all it’s cracked up to be, and cited DeShawn Stevenson as a part my explanation. Stevenson starts, and the role he plays on the Mavs is important. However, getting that nod at the beginning of games doesn’t mean much concerning the worth of Stevenson’s game, nor the quantity of his minutes. As of Wednesday, Stevenson had started 20 games in which he played fewer than 15 minutes. Make that 21, as Stevenson logged just 13 and a half minutes of action last night. Beaubois may eventually usurp Stevenson from his starting role, but regardless, DeShawn’s moment has passed. He made some threes for the Mavs, but his minutes will likely continue to hover around the 12-13 mark as long as the rest of the rotation remains intact.

The Odd-Man Hypothesis

Posted by Ian Levy on under Commentary | View Comments

Ian Levy is the author of Hickory High, a contributor to Indy Cornrows, and is now a part of The Two Man Game family. He’ll be bringing his intelligent brand of — mostly quantitative — analysis here on a weekly basis. You can follow Ian on Twitter at @HickoryHigh.

In the interest of full disclosure, you should know before you start reading that this post takes liberties with the space-time continuum.

All indications are that Rodrigue Beaubois will make his season debut last night (Did you see the time travel? I wrote this before the game against the Kings Wednesday night, but you’re reading it after the game. Feel like you’re in a Douglas Adams novel? Well, imagine how I feel trying to piece this crazy narrative together!)

Beaubois missed the first 54 games of this season recovering from surgery to repair a broken bone in his left foot. He showed tantalizing potential in his rookie season and seemed poised to make a huge impact for the Mavericks this year before his obstinate metatarsal refused to cooperate.

The Mavericks have fought through injuries to Dirk Nowitzki and Caron Butler, and yet still hold possession of the second seed in the Western Conference. Dallas has amassed a huge stack of chips, but the impending return of Beaubois still gives them an ace up their sleeve. It’s difficult to draw conclusions from one game so let’s not get too _______ (excited/depressed) by Beaubois’ _______ (dominating/understated) performance last night.

Today I want to take a look at what if anything the Mavericks have been lacking this season and how Beaubois might be able to step in, two-thirds of the way through the season, and push them over the top.

The table below shows the Mavericks performance in each of the Offensive and Defensive Four Factors this season. It also shows their league rank and the league average for each category.

The Mavericks have not been an outstanding rebounding team, particularly at the offensive end. Beaubois is not going to be much help in that department, so let’s focus our attention elsewhere. At 109.0 points per 100 possessions, they are a top 10 team in terms of Offensive Rating. However, they’re in the middle of the pack when it comes to protecting the basketball and getting to the free throw line. Beaubois posted a TOV% of 14.4% and attempted just 2.7 FTA/36 last season, so barring rapid development over the season’s final 28 games he wouldn’t appear to be much help in either area.

The Mavericks don’t create a lot of turnovers on defense. Beaubois averaged just 1.5 steals per 36 minutes last season. Although he has potential to be disruptive at the defensive end, he isn’t a guaranteed solution there either. Statistically speaking, the two areas where Beaubois thrived last year were scoring and scoring efficiency. The Mavericks can certainly use another weapon, but neither of those areas can really be considered an area of notable weakness. So other than depth and athleticism, where does Beaubois fit in and how does he help this season?

To find the answer we’re going to look at two things, the lineups Beaubois plays in and the offensive possession types in which he is most effective.

Lineups

Beaubois essentially played backcourt minutes in three different scenarios last season. He played point guard, usually paired with Jason Terry, but also on occasion with Quinton Ross, Matt Carroll, DeShawn Stevenson or Josh Howard. He played shooting guard with either Jason Kidd or J.J. Barea at the point guard. Finally, he played in three-guard lineups with some combination of Kidd, Barea and Terry.

Easily the most effective of these scenarios was the three-guard lineups he played in. Just under 100 minutes is a very small sample size but that’s an extremely high Offensive Rating and a ludicrously low Defensive Rating.

When we talk about these three guard lineups we’re looking at something very specific and unique. We aren’t including players like DeShawn Stevenson, Josh Howard, Quinton Ross, Caron Butler and Dominique Jones. Each of those players has the size and skill set to slide easily between shooting guard and small forward, fulfilling the traditional responsibilities of each position. What we are looking at here is a college style three guard lineup, with essentially a trifecta of combo guards filling the backcourt. This is not just something the Mavericks do with Beaubois on the floor. They also utilized it least season with Barea, Terry and Kidd and this season with the same combination in Beaubois’ absence. The table below shows how the Mavericks have fared with each of those three guard sets.

The three guard lineup was effective for the Mavericks last season, especially when Beaubois was involved. This season it’s actually been a negative unit for them. It seems likely the addition of Beaubois could turn this negative into a positive and give the Mavericks the option to exploit the advantages of this type of lineup more often.

Also notable is that the Mavericks’ pace with Beaubois-infused three guard lineups last season was 110.6. This number is a very rough calculation as you don’t get the same number of offensive and defensive possessions when looking at data for multiple lineups. Still, that number is absurdly high, nearly 14 possessions higher than the 96.8 pace the league-leading Timberwolves play at.

Dallas plays at a very slow pace this season (90.2, good for 23rd in the league) as they have in every season since the beginning of the Avery Johnson era. While their offense has been fairly efficient, I think most people would agree that they haven’t exhibited a lot of versatility. Having Beaubois back will allow them to make in-game adjustments and for short stretches of time and empower Rick Carlisle to utilize  lineups that not just survive, but thrive in an up-tempo running game.

Offensive Possession Types

While Beaubois’ skills may not address broad deficiencies in the Mavericks’ offense, he has shown potential with specific types of possessions which can help right away.

The table below breaks down the Mavericks’ possessions for this season by type. For each possession type we can see what percentage of the Mavericks’ offense it represents and how many points they score per possession in that situation. I also added the numbers for Beaubois from last season.

Data courtesy of Synergy Sports Technology.

The Mavericks, like many NBA teams, rely rather heavily on the pick-and-roll. Between the screener and ball handler, 18.2% of their offensive possessions are being used on this play. If we include the possessions classified as cuts or spot-ups that began with pick and rolls the number would be pushed even higher. Oddly though, this season the ball-handler has been far more likely to use the possession out of a pick-and-roll than the screener; given the prevalence of Dirk Nowitzki and even Tyson Chandler in the Mavs’ offense, one would assume the roll man would be a more frequently used option. Now for the bad news: a possession used by a pick-and-roll ball-handler is the second most likely outcome of an offensive possession for the team this year, and the Mavericks are scoring a paltry 0.82 points per possession in those situations.

This would seem to be an area where Beaubois could make a huge difference. 26.9% of the possessions Beaubois used last year were as the ball handler in a pick-and-roll and he scored 1.06 points per possession in these cases. Beaubois is a capable and willing passer and can use the pick-and-roll to create shots for his teammates. However, he really shines when attacking the basket and creating shots for himself.

Even the threat of Beaubois coming off a screen looking for his own shot can open things up for his teammates. Dirk Nowitzki is a terrific pick-and-pop threat, a fact even NHL fans are aware of. Without a legitimate offensive threat as the ball handler, teams are able to defend the pick and roll differently and focus on taking shots away from Nowitzki out of those sets. Jason Kidd is frequently left wide open from mid-range, though without a high likelihood of driving or making a jumper. As a result of having a non-scorer like Kidd initiate many of the Mavs’ pick-and-rolls, Dirk is scoring just 0.96 Points per Possession this season as the screener on pick-and-roll plays, shooting just 42.2% in the process. Other than going 3-of-8 on dribble hand-offs, that’s Dirk’s lowest shooting percentage and point per possessions mark of any possession type this season. With Beaubois as the ball handler in those sets opponents will have to defend in a more balanced manner.

The Mavericks have felt a player away for much of this season. One reason they may have avoided other significant roster moves is the belief that Rodrigue Beaubois may be that player. Beaubois doesn’t appear to address any macro-needs, but his skills should be able to plug several, barely visible nano-holes in the Mavericks’ offense. His true effect on the team probably won’t be seen in SportsCenter highlights but instead in small increases in offensive efficiency and the ability to morph their backcourt rotations for optimal matchups.

Interrupting Reason

Posted by Rob Mahoney on February 16, 2011 under Commentary | View Comments

Mere hours from now, Rodrigue Beaubois will play his first game of the season. There are plenty of logistics still in need of resolution: what Beaubois is capable of, where he will play on the court, how many minutes he’s best suited for at this stage, and whose playing time he’ll eat into are all dimensions of his return that will necessarily go unsolved until he finally takes the court. We can all do our best to map out the most likely blueprint, but it seems crazy to spend this one last afternoon in design rather than whimsy.

This, Mavs fans, is your final chance to stare at the sky. Regardless of what happens tonight and in every game that follows this season, these are the final hours of endless possibility. Beaubois isn’t yet tangible. He’s still forthcoming, and still infinite. He could swoop in from the sky and score three points a minute. He could throw down an alley oop and tear a hole in the fabric of the universe. He could fully actualize as basketball energy incarnate, pushing the Mavs toward the championship and at the same time render the very binary enterprise of wins and losses irrelevant with his supernatural authority.

Every other day of Beaubois’ career can be rooted in realism, but the opportunity to wonder what could be is fading. Maybe Beaubois will be all that Dallas needs him to be or maybe he won’t. All of that matters, but not until opening tip. In the meantime, followers of this team are afforded a bit of hope. I’m not sure that fandom comes with any force more powerful or precious than that.

A Bear Ration

Posted by Ian Levy on February 10, 2011 under Commentary | View Comments

Ian Levy is the author of Hickory High, a contributor to Indy Cornrows, and is now a part of The Two Man Game family. He’ll be bringing his intelligent brand of — mostly quantitative — analysis here on a weekly basis.

Have you ever had an afternoon, or even an entire day, where everything went totally smoothly?  With every normal disaster avoided? The girl at Starbucks doesn’t notice your fly is down as she hands you your coffee. The important meeting for which you’re completely unprepared is canceled at the last minute for a bizarre and unexpected reason. You turn on the fake tears and the state trooper lets you off with a warning.

Well, DeShawn Stevenson has had about 90 of those days in a row.

Stevenson is shooting 41.3% on three pointers this season, well above his career average of 34.7%. This fact becomes even more impressive when you consider that he shot 21.8% and 27.8% his last two NBA seasons. If he was a cyclist and made that sort of single season improvement in one area, hundreds of technicians would be poring over vials of his urine in laboratories around the world.

If we look at Stevenson’s three point percentages for each season, we’ll see this is actually not the only towering peak:

He also shot 40.4% on 183 attempts in 2007 and 38.3% on 413 attempts in 2008. What Stevenson is doing this season is not unprecedented for him personally, but it does put a spotlight on an amazing pattern of inconsistency. As I mentioned above, between this season and the 2007 and 2008 campaigns, Stevenson shot 21.8% and 27.8% on a total of 216 attempts. Before the 2007 and 2008 seasons he had made 52 of 202 three pointers for his career, a 26.2% clip. Still, the jump this season over his career average is his greatest increase yet.

Thus far this season, Stevenson is shooting 6.6 percentage points higher than his career average.  In the past 20 years there have been 291 instances of a player shooting better than 40.0% on three pointers for a season with a minimum of 200 attempts, two marks Stevenson should easily surpass barring injury or a gigantic slump. Of those 291 instances I could only find 22 cases where a player shot over 40.0% on three pointers and it represented an increase of 6.6 percentage points or more over their career average. Ray Allen’s jump this season from a career mark of 39.8% to 46.2% just barely misses our cut.

Looking at things in this way certainly favors the freakishly flukey. Historically great three-point shooters like Steve Kerr, Dale Ellis, Reggie Miller, Dell Curry and Wesley Person don’t make our list because they consistently shot a high percentage each season.

There are a few other oddities with this list. The first is that Stevenson is not the only player showing such a dramatic improvement in their three point shooting this season. I mentioned Ray Allen above, but Richard Jefferson is also on pace to match Stevenson’s improvement over his own career average. The second is a fellow Maverick: Jason Kidd’s performance last year earned him a spot on this list as well. Kidd, a career 34.9% three point shooter, made 42.5% of his three pointers last year, an improvement of 7.6 percentage points. Unfortunately, Kidd hasn’t been able to sustain that improvement this season.

There are only two pairs of teammates who appear on the list for notably improved performances in the same season. The first pairing is Toni Kukoc and Michael Jordan for the 1996 Bulls. Not that you needed any convincing from me, but things went really, really well for the Bulls that season. Brent Price and Tim Legler also made the list for the 1996 Washington Bullets. I’m not sure what was happening in our nation’s capital that winter but it was apparently a glorious time to be an undersized, athletically limited, one-dimensional shooter.

The biggest single season improvement over a career average I could find was Kevin Johnson’s 1997 campaign for the Suns. Johnson was a career 30.5% three point shooter but knocked down 44.1% that season. Looking at the Suns’ 40-42 record gives the impression that it was a fairly unremarkable season for them. However, that team was one of my all-time favorites to watch. In the early stages of that season, the Suns traded Sam Cassell to Dallas for a talented young point guard named Jason Kidd. The rest of the season they started a three-guard lineup of Kidd, Johnson and Rex Champman, with Wesley Person and a young Steve Nash coming off the bench. That team was an early predecessor of the run-and-gun Suns that would rise to prominence several years later.

Even if surrounded by a generally unimpressive list of players who have accomplished this feat, Stevenson’s improvement is still something to be recognized. But where did this scorching stroke come from? I took a look at the data from Synergy Sports to compare what type of offensive possessions his three point shots came out of this season and last season.*

*For some reason, only the data from his time in Washington was available for last season, though he didn’t attempt many shots at all for Dallas. Stevenson took 87 three pointers last year and 63 of them came with the Wizards, so a significant chunk of last season’s performance is represented here.

Three Point Distribution

It would be nice to have some data from earlier seasons for a point of comparison, but we’re stuck with what we have: publicly available data. The trend from the past two seasons would seem to indicate that Stevenson is a reluctant and inefficient shooter when it comes to taking three-pointers off the dribble. He is taking roughly the same percentage of his three-pointers from each area as he did last season, but in situations where he can just catch and shoot (off screens, transition, spot-up) he has seen a remarkable improvement.

Last season in Washington, Stevenson made just 20.8% of his spot-up three pointers compared to 43.4% this season. Obviously an offense run by Jason Kidd with Dirk Nowtizki as a primary offensive threat is going to generate more open looks than one run by Randy Foye with Andray Blatche as the “weapon of choice,” but I don’t think all of his miraculous shot making can be attributed to better teammates or better coaching. You can call it skill, luck, fate or an aberration. I just think Stevenson has been having one of those days . . . again and again and again.

A Glutton for Gluttony

Posted by Rob Mahoney on February 9, 2011 under xOther | View Comments

Video by your very own Dallas Mavericks.

This is probably worse than a pantry full of chips. Everyone freak out!

The Difference: Dallas Mavericks 99, Cleveland Cavaliers 96

Posted by Rob Mahoney on February 8, 2011 under Recaps | View Comments

Box Score — Play-by-Play — Shot Chart — GameFlow

You know the drill. The Difference is a reflection on the game that was, with one bullet for every point in the final margin.

• The Mavs’ 105.3 points per 100 possessions wasn’t an outstanding mark, but Dallas actually executed rather effectively on offense. The turnovers were a bit high, but the patience, pressure, and ensuing high-percentage looks were there. Quality looks were had around the basket and on uncontested jumpers, but something hiccuped during the transition between the notion and actualization of the Mavs’ shots. Dallas missed their first eight field goal attempts, and though they had more productive offensive sequences, that early stretch encapsulated the game nicely. Ian Mahinmi (11 points, 4-6 FG, eight rebounds, three turnovers) was the only Maverick to shoot more than 50% from the field, but don’t mistake Dallas’ inability to score for an inability to execute. Do, however, take that as an indicator of Mahinmi’s effectiveness. He leapfrogged Brendan Haywood (DNP-CD) in the rotation, and stayed in the game with his constant activity. Mahinmi even went to work in the low post on a pair of possessions, where he showed surprising polish. It’s getting more and more difficult for Rick Carlisle to keep Mahinmi off the floor, which makes Haywood’s situation rather bleak and the team’s cap situation even bleaker.
• I’m not sure what it is in Ramon Sessions’ (19 points, 6-12 FG, 13 assists, six rebounds) game that makes him so capable of attacking the Mavs’ defense, but in two games this season he’s seemed shockingly effective against this particular competition. Sessions is good. He’s a starting-caliber player, if surrounded with the right pieces. Yet against the Mavs he looks the part of a legitimate franchise cornerstone. Sessions essentially duplicated the 19-12-7 line he put up the last time these two teams met, and fault rests up and down the roster. Neither Jason Kidd nor J.J. Barea seemed able to hang with him, and once Sessions got past the initial defender his path to the basket often went undeterred. Dallas struggled defensively in many regards (J.J. Hickson went hog wild with 26 points on 18 shots, Antawn Jamison had it far too easy scoring inside, and Christian Eyenga somehow managed 15 points despite being a Jamario Moon’s Jamario Moon), but several of their failings are summed up nicely by Sessions’ simple, unbothered, straight-line path to the rim.
• Dirk Nowitzki (12 points, 5-11 FG, six rebounds, five turnovers) injured his right wrist in the second quarter, and looked understandably hesitant to act as the Mavs’ primary shot-taker. It doesn’t appear to be serious, but should Nowitzki look to take a step back offensively until his shooting motion is relatively pain-free, the rest of the Mavs will need to be a bit more accurate. Mahinmi, Shawn Marion (17 points, 5-15 FG, 10 rebounds, seven offensive), and Tyson Chandler (10 points, 11 rebounds, four offensive) were able to salvage a ton of those misses on Monday night with offensive boards, and the bench created enough scoring to avoid what could have been a hugely embarrassing lost. Peja Stojakovic can also hopefully be a bit more helpful in the scoring column as Dallas moves forward; his Maverick debut came with some inevitable rust, but Stojakovic moved well and found open looks. Now he — and the rest of his new teammates — just have to make them.