“We know how bad we feel. We know they feel the same way.”
-Craig MacTavish
Ed. note: For those of you who are new ’round these parts, here’s how this dance goes: every “weekday” (meaning Sunday-Thursday) game gets the full recap treatment, while “weekend” (you guessed it, Friday-Saturday) games are broken down in easily digestible bullet form.
This won’t be the worst loss of the season, but it’s still a pretty bad one. Losing to Memphis is one thing; the Grizz are a pretty decent team, even if the Mavs are a better one. Losing to them without Zach Randolph is another; Zeebo is an integral part of Memphis’ attack, and a primary source of both scoring and rebounding. Losing to them without Randolph on a blown box-out and two subsequent horrible inbound attempts…well, that’ll put a damper on your weekend.
Though the Mavs managed to lose this one in spectacular fashion via Tyson Chandler’s lack of a box-out/foul and Jason Kidd’s back-to-back poor inbound passes, their second half defense wasn’t victory-worthy. The effort on the defensive glass was poor all night (a fact exploited by Gasol, who had six offensive rebounds including a game-clinching one) but Dallas’ perimeter defense was consistently weak as well. Chandler and Brendan Haywood did a good job of contesting attempts around the rim when in position, but they weren’t always in a place to challenge shots. Part of that is a flaw in the Mavs’ scheme and execution, but the blame lies more with Kidd, Jason Terry, and Caron Butler than with the Maverick bigs.
Turnovers were a problem. The Mavs lost the turnover battle on a per-possession and by raw total, with Kidd (five giveaways) as the primary culprit. That said, the Mavs as a whole made an inspired team effort to turn the ball over as frequently as possible, with Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler, Shawn Marion, Brendan Haywood, and J.J. Barea all chipping in two turnovers of their own. A 19.8 turnover rate isn’t awful in the grand scheme of things, but for a team that relies so heavily on their ball protection? It’s fairly damaging.
Jason Kidd isn’t shy about being a three-point shooter. He’s ready to fire while spotting-up, in a high screen-and-roll, off the dribble, off the catch, etc. He took seven three-point attempts last night, and while that’s not necessarily too many considering Kidd’s sterling shooting percentage from distance and his lack of other scoring, it’s a notable difference from Kidd’s mentality this season. He seems ready to contribute more in terms of scoring this season, and while that isn’t paying dividends just yet, it could pay off down the line.
Dominique Jones again got some early burn, making his first appearance late in the first quarter. Jones only had one point (off of a split trip to the line), but he grabbed a pair of assists by setting up Kidd for a spot-up three and Marion for a runner on the baseline. If it’s not abundantly clear by now, I’m a fan of Jones’ instincts. He isn’t forcing things even though his opportunities have been limited, and that discretion is invaluable for a rookie looking to earn playing time under Rick Carlisle.
Dallas again started the game hot, only to surrender that lead later in the first quarter. Honestly, I think the angle concerned with how the Mavs start games is a bit overplayed. One team usually starts out looking better than the other. The previously struggling team eventually makes a run. Both teams exchange runs throughout. One team wins. It’s cool when Dallas runs out to a 16-0 lead as they did in their season opener against Charlotte, but ultimately, that run is no more influential than the subsequent runs at other points in time throughout the game.
Caron Butler isn’t a very good finisher around the rim. He had a nice and-one layup in this one, but also a blown attempt at the rim or two. Butler’s shooting percentage at the basket last season was a bit low, and I hoped it was attributable to being in a bit of a funk. That may not be so.
Jason Terry’s defense has been hit and miss, but he’s doing a good job of looking for his teammates, particularly when Kidd is on the bench. It’s nice to have two creators out there when Barea is running the point, and passing has long been one of Terry’s more underrated additions to Mavs teams in recent years. He’s primarily a scorer. That doesn’t make him only a scorer.
Fouling is Tyson Chandler’s religion.
Nowitzki was, again, pretty phenomenal. He finished with 27 points on 11-of-15 shooting along with seven boards. Beautiful, beautiful efficiency. Also: the man still loves his that trailing three on the break.
The opener against the Bobcats was brilliant, but it’s clear that the Mavericks are far from a finished product. These games happen. They bring up a few questions, but shouldn’t necessarily shake your confidence in how good of a team the Mavs can be. They’re not there now and they may never be, but Dallas has the potential to be a pretty solid squad.
Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd were both very viable candidates for “player of the night” honors on Wednesday, not only among Mavericks but in a league-wide determination. The ultimate decision would be a matter of opinion (there were plenty of other excellent performances to choose from on Wednesday, from Chris Paul to Monta Ellis to Russell Westbrook), but both Mavs’ nights could go toe-to-toe with just about any of them.
The production. The efficiency. Just splendid.
So much so that I wondered how Kidd’s performance, specifically, popped from a historical perspective. Notching 18 assists is impressive, but hardly notable in the grand history of the league. Plenty of players have had 18-assist outings, and Kidd is no stranger to them himself. But 18 assists with just one turnover? All of that playmaking with but one bumbled pass, one overly ambitious maneuver, one forced dish? It had to be a bit more rare.
It was. Kind of. But not as rare as one might think.
There have been 49 18-assist, one-turnover performances since the ‘86-’87 season, including a pair of gaudy John Stockton lines that top the list. Does that make Kidd’s performance any less elite, particularly considering just how profound of an impact he had on Wednesday’s game? Of course not. Does the fact that Brevin Knight also accomplished the feat make me sour a bit on it? Yeah, probably. He’s Brevin Knight.
But Jason Kidd is Jason Kidd, and that performance we saw from him in the season opener was dominant. He couldn’t have done it without Nowitzki and Jason Terry in rhythm, but that was a brilliant performance nonetheless. Even without the benefit of historical significance, that was a spectacular demonstration of Kidd’s playmaking eminence.
Pretty weak in the costume department, fellas. Wigs and shutter shades do not a swell costume make. Dirk’s non-existent costume might be better than that, but regardless, all costumes pale in comparison to the Martina Navratilova look Dirk claims to have rocked last year. I can’t even begin to describe how badly the internet needs to see pictures of Dirk in a tennis skirt.
Once More, With Feeling: The Four Factors - An in-depth statistical look at how the Mavs performed last season in each of the game’s most important statistical categories, and how they’ll likely stack up in the coming year.
Basketball-Reference.com preview - Looking at the Mavs’ strengths and weaknesses for the blog component of the most invaluable basketball website around.
WEEI preview - Helping out over at WEEI’s Boston Celtics blog, in which I address just how sober the Mavericks’ chances are of overtaking the Lakers this season.
Also, if I may:
If you’re following me on Twitter, you probably already know this, but in addition to my work here, at Hardwood Paroxysm, and at ProBasketballTalk, I’ve also joined the New York Times’ Off the Dribble Blog as a contributor. Keep an eye out there for some more of my general NBA work, though I’m sure the Mavs will inevitably pop up from time to time.
Matt Moore and I recently launched Voice on the Floor, an NBA audio blog (striving to be an NPR for the NBA, in a way) that has been a blast so far. It primarily consists of extended interviews from Moore, as well as spoken word essays from myself and various contributors. I’m very excited about the project and its potential, so I hope you guys will tag along.
Dirk Nowitzki on Tyson Chandler (via Mike Fisher of DallasBasketball.com): “He’s just so unbelievably active, I’ve never seen anything like it…He’s got to be the best runner at the 5 position and one of the most athletic 5’s right now in this league…he covers a lot of ground out there and he’s plugging holes for us defensively.”
Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer: “Turnovers were this team’s flaw all last season, and nothing changed in the season-opener. Twenty-one turnovers led to 28 Dallas points. As a tennis guy (no double-fault is good, but some are far worse than others), I buy Larry Brown’s principle that there are acceptable turnovers (daring passes, intended to make for easy baskets, that just don’t work out), and unacceptable turnovers (lazy ballhandling at mid-court that leads to easy opponent scores). Wednesday the vast majority of the turnovers were the ones that scorch you. Especially so with a Jason Kidd pushing the ball for the other team.”
Charlotte looked like kind of a mess last night, which prompted David Arnott of Rufus on Fire to engage in an interesting exercise: if on were writing Bobcats scouting reports based solely on last night’s game, what would they say? Follow over to RoF an leave your thoughts, but we could do the very same for the Mavs here.
Brendan Haywood didn’t start last night, but he’s playing nice so far (via Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News): “Sometimes things don’t go the way you plan. You just got to make the best of it.”
The Mavs finally raised the opening night curtain, and if anyone claims to have predicted that grand of a reveal, they’re lying. Dallas didn’t just play out their first game of the season. They put on a show. There was sleight of hand. There were pyrotechnics. There was brilliant execution throughout, barring one rather tragic stretch bridging the first and second quarters. If that first 48 minutes was any indication, this season promises to be far more fantastic than anticipated.
Dallas started the night with a 16-0 run, and though every point of that advantage was squandered by the midway point of the second quarter, it was but a simple demonstration of what this team is capable of. Not ‘capable of,’ in some distant sense, either, like when discussing adolescent potential or a purely hypothetical call to action. The Mavs were capable of being a great team as of this afternoon, and for this game against the Charlotte Bobcats (I know, I know), they became one. The cynic would rightfully ask if this kind of production is sustainable. I don’t know. No one does. But the Mavs looked damn impressive last night, didn’t they?
Offensively, this was the best we’ve seen the Mavs in some time. Their already impressive efficiency (111 points per 100 possessions) would be off the charts if not for a late first quarter slip-up, in which a lineup of J.J. Barea, Dominique Jones, Caron Butler, Shawn Marion, and Brendan Haywood allowed the Bobcats to go on a pretty brutal run. Up to that point, Butler had been getting to the rim fairly effectively. A few clanged jumpers and a handful of Barea turnovers later, Charlotte had erased the Mavs’ early lead and started to forge one of their own. A line switch brought a reversal in fortune, and from that point on, Carlisle didn’t make the same mistake. Clearly a bench unit isn’t the way to go, nor is running any lineup where Butler is expected to create offense without significant help.
When any other lineup was on the floor, the Mavs paced their offense to a rather beautiful rhythm. Everyone shared the ball. Everyone (even Butler, Dirk Nowitzki, and Jason Terry) cut to the basked and worked toward open space. The sets were almost completely devoid of isolation play, and Jason Kidd (12 points, 2-3 3FG, 18 assists, three steals, just one measly turnover) was generating some obscenely good looks for his teammates. I’ve previously mentioned the impact that Kidd can have on players like Shawn Marion, Brendan Haywood and Tyson Chandler, all perfectly useful players but ones lacking in shot creation. This game was an excellent case study in the other primary impact of Kidd’s playmaking: generating wide open looks for the team’s most efficient offensive weapons. It’s by Kidd’s hand that Nowitzki (28 points, 11-13 FG, 13 rebounds) and Terry (22 points, 10-15 FG, six assists, four steals) were able to have such tremendous nights, and the three engineered a stable, replicable brand of pass-happy offense.
That’s right. Replicable. Kidd won’t pick up 18 dimes a night and Nowitzki won’t average 85% shooting for the year, but the elements that made the Mavericks so successful on both the break and in their half-court offense can be accomplished on a nightly basis. The looks were just that good, and while Charlotte’s defense looked positively flummoxed by a maestro at work, Dallas should be able to accomplish something similar even against more effective defensive fronts. Dallas just needs to keep moving, and extend the beautiful flow that brought them their first victory through the rest of the season. If Mavs fans can be bored with these types of performances by the end of the year, Dallas will be among the league’s true contenders. The design has been detailed, now the Mavs just need to mass produce.
Dallas looked terrific defensively, but that’s almost to be expected against a team like the Bobcats. Take an already depressing offense, replace its starting point guard — a sturdy if unspectacular creator who excels in pick-and-roll situations — with a young, shaky, score-first point man, give them limited time to gel, and you have…this. It didn’t help that Larry Brown benched Stephen Jackson for the game’s final 16 minutes for seemingly arbitrary reasons, but Charlotte’s defensive limitations go far beyond any of Brown’s substitutions. They’ll starve for scoring all season, and though Tyrus Thomas (22 points, 8-15 FG, six rebounds) came out of nowhere to lead the team in that department, the Bobcats aren’t likely to get that kind of contribution consistently. As poorly as Charlotte performed on offense in this game, they actually have the potential to be even worse.
Not that Dallas didn’t have a little something to do with that poor performance. The Mavs forced the ball out of Stephen Jackson’s hands early, and gradually transitioned into a more balanced defensive style that contested just about everything within the arc while causing plenty of turnovers. Charlotte’s effective field goal percentage on shots within 10 feet was just 23.6%, a testament to fine work by Tyson Chandler, Brendan Haywood, and a Maverick defense free to swarm from the perimeter. Dallas gave Boris Diaw, Gerald Wallace, and D.J. Augustin license to shoot from the weak side as they smothered anyone attacking the basket, and the results were very manageable. The same approach clearly wouldn’t work against a team with reliable three-point shooters, but for the Bobcats, it was a perfectly drawn scheme.
This is about as good as it gets for opening night. Let’s just hope it’s not as good as it gets for the entire 2010-2011 season.
Closing thoughts:
The Mavs have never lost to the Bobcats. The all-time series between the two teams stands at 13-0 after last night.
It looks like Jason Terry will round out the starting unit after all. No chance Carlisle shuffles the deck after a performance like this one.
Oddly, Tyson Chandler started rather than Brendan Haywood. I was under the impression that the starting gig was Haywood’s to lose, but apparently that part of the negotiating process was a little less explicit than initially reported. Or the Mavs have completely gone back on their initial promise. One of the two. Either way, Chandler looks to be the starter for now (and deservedly so, based on their performances last night), though it’s hardly set in stone.
Caron Butler had three turnovers, all traveling violations. Exploding to the basket off the catch is clearly an uncomfortable maneuver for Butler at this juncture.
Brendan Haywood was largely invisible, in spite of his defensive contributions. The box score (two points, three rebounds) is fair to him. Not exactly a compelling case to overtake Chandler as the starter.
The first bucket of Dominique Jones’ career was a long two-point jumper from the left corner. Huh.
Dallas was impressive in how quickly they triggered the transition game, and even more impressive in their execution on the break. Kidd ran the show expertly, and once he got the Mavs running, wouldn’t hesitate to wait for trailers on the secondary break. Plenty of NBA guards only know one gear in transition, but Kidd’s patience on the break is remarkable.
Shawn Marion is trying to shoot more threes this season, but the early returns weren’t pretty. An 0-fer on two attempts last night for Shawn, including an airball.
In the second quarter, Marion was defending Wallace on the perimeter, and somehow forced a jump ball while Wallace was in the triple threat. Marion received no statistical credit for the play whatsoever, but it was one moment among many that attest to his defensive savvy.
Remember, Dirk Nowitzki ended the regular season of last year on a consecutive free throw streak, and he picked up right where he left off with a 6-of-6 night at the line. His streak of consecutive regular season makes now stands at 78. Minnesota’s Michael Williams holds the record for the most consecutive free throws made with 97 (March 24-Nov. 9, 1993).
Chandler was a bit out of control in the fourth quarter, as he was involved in a series of tie-ups and strange fouls. He and Gerald Wallace both received a technical foul for one of the entanglements. This is pretty much par for the course with Tyson; he’s rather emotive. He also fouls a lot. Put the two together, and he can get himself into trouble.
GOLD STAR OF THE NIGHT: There were so many fantastic performances in the NBA last night that somehow Kidd’s 18-assist evening will probably be overlooked. It’s a shame, because it was an exhaustive exhibition of his creative wizardry. He threw a lob to Chandler. He hit teammates streaking up the wings on the break. He fed JET as he curled around a screen. He found Dirk on a backdoor cut. Kidd did it all, and made it look easy. 18 A’s, but it felt like 50.
The regular season is just a few hours away, but it’s never too late to catch up with the Mavs’ rotation regulars. Some members of the rotation are continuing with business as usual, others have modified roles, and some are completely fresh to the Mavericks faithful. So let me introduce to you, the act you’ve known for all of these years, only new, hopefully improved, and ready to roll:
[Ed. note: If you're confused by the following positional designations, you've got some catching up to do.]
Dirk Nowitzki
Scorer/Rebounder — D4
Dirk Nowitzki’s fantastic production is trumped only by his remarkable consistency. The Mavs lean so heavily on Dirk’s ability to score in volume, and he yet he never disappoints. The sun rises, Nowitzki drops 25 and eight, the sun sets. This is the rhythm to which the Mavs have scored their success over the last decade, and the beat is as steady now as it ever has been. There will come a day when Dirk is no longer fit to be the focal point of an offense, but it’s not today, and the rest of the week looks clear, too.
Nowitzki played almost 38 minutes a night last season, and if Rick Carlisle could find some rest for his star, that would change. It won’t, and Dirk should continue to chug along at about 37 or 38 minutes a night because this team has no alternative. If the Mavs are going to work for a guaranteed playoff spot and an optimal seed, Nowitzki has to be on the court as much as possible. Dallas’ offense tends to crumble without Dirk present to moderate, and though that could potentially change if Caron Butler, Jason Tery, and Rodrigue Beaubois can provide stable scoring in Nowitzki’s absence, I’m inclined to base projections of the year to come off of the one past. That trio wasn’t able to accomplish that goal after the All-Star break last season, so any progress on that front, while welcome, would be a bit unexpected.
In those 38 minutes, we can expect the same Nowitzki. Dirk’s true-shooting percentage (.580) and effective field goal percentage (.498) were pretty much in line with his career averages, and the sum total of his scoring was also par for the course. Plus, as I mentioned in my season preview focusing on the four factors, Nowitzki’s lack of turnovers is positively remarkable. He’s truly elite in that regard, not only among his contemporaries, but for these and all times. For a guy who has control of the offense so often, Nowitzki should be coughing the ball up at a significantly higher rate. He doesn’t, and it’s godsend to the Maverick offense.
Nowitzki’s defensive role will always come secondary to his offensive importance, but I still retain the notion that Dirk gets a bit of an undeserved rap as a defender. In his first four seasons in the NBA or so, Nowitzki was a truly abysmal defender. Over time, as Dirk grew into his body and the NBA game, he’s developed a pretty decent set of defensive skills that don’t make him a plus on that end necessarily, but prevent him from being a liability. According to 82games, Nowitzki’s counterparts average a PER of 16.6, and while that’s above average, it’s an acceptable mark considering Nowitzki’s +9.3 edge in net PER.
Dirk still picks up his share of blocks and steals (in fact, his number of defensive plays per game puts him right in line with guys like Tim Duncan and Kendrick Perkins), but where he’s shown the most improvement is in his defensive awareness. I wouldn’t want Dirk anchoring my defense for a variety of reasons, but he’s not quite as poor of a defender as advertised these days.
Jason Kidd
Creator — D2/D1
Though I often mention the importance of Butler, Terry, and Beaubois’ scoring, it’s Kidd’s shot-creating talents that could end up being most crucial for the Mavs this season. The Spurs systematically eliminated the impacts of both Terry and Kidd in last year’s playoffs, and Dallas struggled to compensate. Even with Butler and Beaubois chipping in, it’s Kidd’s ability to create shots for players like Shawn Marion, Brendan Haywood, and Tyson Chandler (not to mention free up the likes of Terry and Butler for open looks) that currently fuels the Mavs’ secondary attack. Without Kidd setting up teammates that can’t create for themselves on a consistent basis, the Mavs’ offense becomes brutally simplistic and, ultimately, solvable.
The fast breaks matter. Kidd’s three-point shooting matter. But ultimately, it’s Kidd’s ability to do the same thing he’s always done — manufacture shots out of thin air in half-court sets — that will help the Mavs most this season. Everything else is just gravy.
Something that could make that gravy even more delicious, though, is a facet of Kidd’s game he’s supposedly been working on in the off-season: shooting off of screens. The reason why the Terry-Nowitzki two man game is so effective is because both players are essentially a threat to score at all times. Terry could shoot when tucked behind the screen, he could break toward the rim, pull-up on the way, or dish it to Dirk for another thousand options. When Kidd runs the two man game, it’s painfully obvious that he has no intent to score. Kidd’s a poor finisher around the rim, and to this point, has been awkward in his attempts to hit pull-up jumpers off the bounce. If he can again introduce a new element to his game this late in his career (a la the improve three-point stroke he unveiled upon arriving in Dallas), it could help the Mavs out tremendously. Having Kidd as a legitimate pick-and-roll option would open up a whole new world for the Dallas offense. Shining, shimmering, splendid.
Kidd’s still an impact player on the defensive end, but it’s probably best if we say that he’s between traditional positions. There are plenty of players that Kidd is effective in guarding, but to say that he always guards one position or another would be both misguided and terribly false. Dallas swings their defensive matchups with great regularity, particularly with scoring D1s (Terry, Beaubois, possibly Dominique Jones) sharing the court with Kidd. The important thing is that Kidd can defend someone, and though particular defensive assignments have given him trouble over the last few seasons, he’s still very capable of doing just that.
Caron Butler
Scorer — D3/D2
At Media Day, Caron Butler insisted that one of training camp’s primary benefits was the ability to make his mark on the team, to instill his personality and influence on a squad that will rely on him this season. That may seem backward to those with old-school, team-first sensibilities, but there’s definitely some logic in Butler’s perspective. Last season, he was thrown into the lineup mid-stride and asked to produce, which puts him in a natural position to accommodate. He still took plenty of shots and made an impact on the offense in both good ways and bad, but Caron was still sliding into an offense that was never designed for him.
This season, Butler will have a chance to make his mark, and to really be a part of this team from opening tip. Mid-season player integration is a tall order, but now all excuses are wiped clean, Butler is in a contract year, and it’s time to go to work.
Showing up in excellent shape is a start, but it’s going to take more than a few dropped pounds for Butler to live up to his role. Dallas needs Caron to provide consistent, efficient complementary scoring while holding his own defensively, and provided he accomplishes those two things, Dallas will be in a very good place come April. If not — if Butler is only the same player he was in the latter half of last season, for example — the Mavs’ offense on the whole will surely suffer the repercussions. Nowitzki is essential and Kidd principal, but Butler is pivotal. He has the potential to swing the Mavs’ offense into the future, leaving the days of middling offensive efficiency behind.
Shawn Marion
Rebounder — D3/D4/D2/D1
Shawn Marion is the Mavs’ best defender, and if any team’s best defender doesn’t put up daunting numbers, they’re bound to be undervalued. Such is the case with Marion, who has already become a bit of a scapegoat among Mavs fans after just one season with the team.
Nevermind the fact that Marion is still a premier perimeter defender that can swing to cover just bout anyone on the court. Nevermind that at his primary position, Marion held his defensive assignments to a 13.3 PER. Nevermind the fact that Marion draws the toughest defensive assignments on the perimeter night-in and night-out, and forced some of the league’s most potent scorers (LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Durant) into inefficient and unproductive nights last season.
His rebounding rate may not be what it once was, as is the case with his overall scoring production, but Marion is still an elite perimeter defender. His primary function on the team is to succeed in that capacity, while also chipping in on the boards and in the scoring column. Let’s not forget that for all of his the derision Marion received for his offensive contributions, he still scored 12 points a night while shooting .508 from the field. It’s not quite the 20+ Marion was gunning for during his Phoenix days, but considering how much of an afterthought he was in the Mavs’ offense, it’s not too shabby.
Don’t expect Marion to produce as a Maverick like he did as a Sun. He’s not being utilized in even remotely the same way, and to expect the same total production would be unspeakably foolish. Marion was certainly both more productive and more efficient as a member of a relentless, fast-breaking offense, but that’s not the way the Mavs roll these days and we should adjust our expectations accordingly. Defend, rebound, score when he can. Those are Marion’s marching orders, and so far he’s followed them intently.
Jason Terry
Scorer/Creator — D1
Terry used to be a rather divisive Maverick, but these days he’s mostly just reviled. Some of the criticism (his spotty scoring last season, his defensive ineptitude) is warranted, and some (exaggerated claims about his periodic shooting troubles, comments about his abilities as a supplementary playmaker) less so. Regardless, Terry is still a Maverick, and unless he experiences an incredible drop-off, still a valued part of the franchise and the offense.
You can trace a few minor regressions in Terry’s statistical profile if you’d like, but on paper he was essentially the same player that won the Sixth Man Award in 2008-2009. He was less efficient overall, but also using fewer possessions. His scoring dipped, but so did his shot attempts. Overall, Terry’s line looks like that of a player trying to accommodate the presence of new teammates (Butler, Marion, et al), and as a result, perhaps he wasn’t as effective in some spots as he could have been otherwise. Or maybe at 32, JET is seeing his own inevitable decline begin to unfold. If that’s the case, Dallas would do well with a repeat performance from Terry, who was still able to be an effective contributor to the offense.
Anything worse, and Dallas could be in serious trouble; Terry’s at a point in his career where he’ll be allocated certain minutes on previous production and reputation, and he’s unable to produce up to his previous levels in those opportunities, I wonder whether Rick Carlisle will fully hand JET’s role over to Rodrigue Beaubois mid-season.
Regardless, Terry’s tenure in Dallas may soon be coming to a close. The Mavs need him to produce this season, but it’s unclear whether he’ll be a Maverick beyond this year. The sentimentalist in me hopes he’ll be in Dallas for a bit. The pragmatist knows that Beaubois is essentially ready to take over Terry’s duties today, and that it could be in the franchise’s best interest to sent JET on his merry way. His performance this season will likely play a significant part in the decision regardless of where it leads.
Rodrigue Beaubois
Scorer/Hopefully a Creator — D1
You’ve heard of this guy, right? It’s almost unfathomable now that the Maverick who caught the interest of virtually the entire NBA world was essentially an unknown on draft night. He was French. He was athletic. Some invoked the name of Rajon Rondo. Now he’s a profile-worthy talent on his own merits and the Mavs’ great hope for both this season and those to come. Dirk, leaning forward slightly as he measures his opponent while in the triple threat, carries the franchise’s weight on his shoulders. Beaubois, it seems, may one day bear it, too, but for now, he’s just hitting the weight room.
Rick Carlisle was the biggest obstacle in Beaubois’ path last season. As a rookie, Rodrigue was second on the team in points per minute and PER, but 11th in minutes played. He was incredibly efficient with his shooting (also second among Mavericks in both eFG% and TS%), but it’s tough to get up shots when you’re sitting on the bench. Dissecting Beaubois’ lack of playing time in last year’s playoffs is so passe, but there’s truth to the claims of injustice. Basketball is supposed to be a meritocracy, and Beaubois, despite outplaying a number of his teammates, didn’t receive a role or playing time worthy of his merits.
That looks to be different this season. Beaubois will begin the year sidelined by a foot injury he sustained earlier in the summer, but upon his return, he may very well be a starter. At the very least, Beaubois is poised to be a rotation regular, as opposed to last year’s chain-pulling treatment.
Beaubois is the real deal as a scorer, but no one can say how his game will improve, flat-line, regress, or evolve in the coming season. There’s no use projecting. There’s no use assuming. Just watch, enjoy, and hopefully, embrace the future.
Brendan Haywood
Rebounder — D5
Tyson Chandler
Rebounder — D5/D4
Haywood and Chandler, together, provide the Mavs with a pretty impressive D5 front. In Haywood, the Mavs have a big skilled in defending the post, challenging cutters, and hitting the glass. With Chandler, Dallas now has a big capable of defending the pick-and-roll well, but also strong and athletic enough to compete on the boards, and fight opposing bigs down low. Both share a Stretch Armstrong physique that makes them valuable as both on-ball and help defenders.
No offense to Erick Dampier (and I mean that sincerely; I have more respect for Dampier’s game than just about anyone on his Christmas card mailing list), but this is the most talented center core Dallas has ever had. I don’t know how much that will matter considering the duo’s specific flaws and the other weaknesses on the roster, but the Mavs have two pretty talented centers that, with their powers combined, should improve the Mavs’ overall defense with their versatility.
Offensively, both are relative liabilities. Haywood’s hook may be slightly more reliable, but all things considered, the differences in their offensive games are negligible. Haywood and Chandler finish around the basket. They’ll get post-up opportunities every now and again, but for the most part they are marginal scorers. They’re on the floor to rebound, defend, and lurk around the rim to prevent their man from doubling or helping too aggressively. Haywood and Chandler are offensive fail-safes, and occasional lob targets. Not much more, at least in terms of actual scoring.
J.J. Barea
Scorer/Creator — D1
Barea marks the end of the consistent minute-getters, and even his status with the team could become questionable if Rodrigue Beaubois displays the aptitude to fuction as a consistent creator. That isn’t necessarily likely to happen this season, meaning that Barea should be pegged at around 15 minutes for the coming season.
J.J. is a scorer, but is able to make intelligent plays off of the foundation of his drives. His vision isn’t spectacular, and often he gets caught trying to do too much on the way to the basket. Still, he’s creative on the move, and is able to maneuver into the paint in a way few other Mavericks can. Kidd doesn’t drive. Terry doesn’t drive. It’s Barea, Beaubois, and Dominique Jones that can (and do) get deep into the paint consistently, and that makes him valuable, even if his overall production is far from elite.
As a reserve guard, it’s assumed that Barea has obvious weaknesses. His defense, particularly on the pick and roll, leaves something to be desired, though not due to lack of effort. His outside shooting, while solid, isn’t spectacular. His diminutive stature makes finishing at the basket a bit tricky. But take all of that, roll it in a bit of scoring and playmaking, and you’ve got something that doesn’t taste all that bad. He’s never going to be a starting-caliber player, but as far as reserves go, Barea’s pretty useful.
Kelly Dwyer of Ball Don’t Lie previews the Mavs’ season, which he pegs for 52 wins (though Dwyer notes that such a mark is easily beatable by this collective): “…as much as age sets in, and as much as a lack of depth will likely keep the Mavericks away from the ranks of the championship contender, Dallas will still field a sound rotation of basketball players that will give them a chance to beat every team - every single one of them - soundly on any given night. Even if Jason Kiddwon’t be able to pop jumpers all night as a threat off of a screen and roll, and if Dirk finally does decide to not act like an All-NBA player, the core is good enough to keep this team competitive, and in the race for that distant second spot behind the Los Angeles Lakers.” Also, the Brian Cardinal picture is worth a click-through alone.
Mike Fisher of DallasBasketball.com: “I suppose there is a fine line between being ‘detail-oriented’ and being a ‘dictatorial control freak.’…let’s put Rick Carlisle and the Mavs coaching staff in the former category, shall we? Remember one of Rick’s main gripes about his players in the San Antonio playoff series: Dallas didn’t win its share of the “50-50 balls,’’ that is, the loose balls on the floor that can be gathered up to gain or retain possession, that can be fast-break starters, momentum-grabbers, game winners. On Sunday, guess what the Mavs worked on? Hustle and angles and attacking, all as they relate to loose balls. A basketball version of football’s ‘fumble drills,’ basically.”
Von Wafer (Celtics), Mo Ager (Timberwolves), Jeremy Lin (Warriors), D.J. Mbenga (Hornets), Pops Mensah-Bonsu (Hornets), Shawne Williams (Knicks), and Malik Allen (Magic) all made opening day rosters. Jake Voskuhl, Dwayne Jones, J.R. Giddens, and Joe Crawford did not. (Thanks to Scott Schroeder of Ridiculous Upside for compiling a hell of a list.)
From Sports Illustrated’s “NBA Enemy Lines” feature, in which an opposing scout gives his take on a given NBA team: “Their big pickup, Tyson Chandler, is important to them because teams anticipate being able to penetrate from the top against Kidd, Terry and Barea, who all have a hard time keep anybody in front of them. So now the Mavericks should be able to bring over a big guy to meet the penetration, whether it’s Chandler or Brendan Haywood. The fundamental problem remains on the perimeter, but at least now they have some long and mobile big guys who are capable of changing shots. Haywood doesn’t excite anyone too much, but he’s serviceable as a long guy you have to shoot over. I hear people saying he’s soft, but I think that’s a bad rap. He’s effective and he has a nice right hook. Most of the time he’ll be able to turn to that shoulder and get off the shot whenever he wants.” For the record, haven’t heard much of anyone calling Haywood soft. You?
A handy tidbit from Jason Terry (via Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News): “We have 17 of 26 games at home to start the season, so we need to set a tone.”
Tyson Chandler, from his official site: “To do that, we have to have strong leadership and it’s been great working with a dedicated owner like Mark Cuban. Cube, as we call him, is dope. He’s a cool-cat. He obviously loves the game and he loves to be around it. We know that we have a passionate owner and that’s always a good thing. His only motivation is to win championships…I’m so happy to get a chance to play with two of the best in the game at what they do in Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki. J-Kidd is the ultimate professional. He comes in to work every day and he sees things that I don’t even know if a coach can see. But he sees them in real time, right there on the floor, in the flow of the game. He’s an incredible passer and he’s definitely going to improve my game. Dirk has always been an incredible scorer and an assassin on the offensive end and that’s coming from me being on the other side. Now, getting to watch that daily, I see why he’s one of top players in our league. He’s almost unstoppable.”
Mark Followill’s scouting report on Dominique Jones for DallasBasketball.com: “Jones has the strength, tenacity and desire it would appear to defend well at this level, although he has been caught reaching a few times this preseason rather than playing solid defense by using his feet. The weakest part of his game right now is definitely the outside jump shot. Improving that doesn’t appear to be a mechanical issue, but more about spending time in the gym working on it and developing confidence. I’ve seen some good decisions from him with the ball when he drives in terms of passing. I don’t think that makes him a point guard, but its good he can make smart decisions if he is going to be getting down into the paint with regularity.”
Dean Oliver, in his book Basketball on Paper, isolated four factors (by dissecting offensive and defensive rating) that determine success in the NBA:
Shooting
Rebounding
Turnovers
Free throws
That’s it. An entire game of nuance and complexities boiled down to four bullet points.
Of course it’s never quite that simple, as Oliver readily admits. Still, behind these four headings lies each team’s central offensive and defensive successes and failures. The four factors are a step beyond your run-of-the-mill counting statistics, but still a bit of a reach from your more advanced metric. These measures give tremendous insight into a squad’s particulars, and in my estimation, they’re essential to evaluating the performance of any team.
Shooting
As measured by effective field goal percentage. Mavs’ 2009-2010 eFG%: .506 (13th in the league); ‘09-’10 eFG% allowed: .495 (15th)
We think of the Mavericks as a team of shooters, mostly due to the sheer number of mid-range jumpers that the Mavs take and make. Dallas shot a better percentage from 16-23 feet than any team in the NBA last year, and hit at nearly two full percentage points better than the second ranked Raptors. Dirk Nowitzki, Caron Butler, and Jason Terry are mostly to both blame and praise for that success. The Mavericks are thus great at hitting the most inefficient shot in basketball, and considerably less effective (relative to their competition) as the shots get more and more efficient. Dallas just doesn’t have a lot of scorers tasked with taking efficient shots, and the result, while propped up as a Mavericks strength, makes for some inefficient shooting overall.
Dallas may shoot 43.2% on long two-pointers, but the Lakers made 44.0% of their shots in the 10-15 foot range, the Raptors shot 50.9% within 10 feet, and the Cavs converted 66.2% of their looks at the rim. It’s impressive that the Mavs shoot as well as they do on long twos, but shot selection continues to plague the Mavs’ overall offensive efficiency. Backing those same attempts to the three-point line or moving them in closer to the basket would drastically improve the Mavs’ overall shooting numbers, but alas, doing so would either require a significantly restructured offense or a pretty drastic change in personnel.
There’s certainly nothing wrong with Nowitzki, and both Butler and Terry are capable offensive sidekicks. The problem is that when all three are operating for the same team in the same space, the damage to the offense goes further than it would in similarly limited offenses. Put all of a team’s primary scorers in one range, and the team’s offense will struggle. Put all of those scorers in one range as far away from the basket as possible without giving them the added benefit of a three-point attempt, and it’s a testament to Nowitzki, Butler, and Terry that the Mavs aren’t even worse offensively.
Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem very likely to change. Those three players are still central to the Mavs’ offense, and even if Rodrigue Beaubois’ scoring talents become featured as anticipated, he isn’t reshaping the entire plan of attack on his own. He’ll help to boost the Mavs’ eFG% with drives to the rim and solid three-point shooting, but this is one area in which a healthy dose of Beaubois will only result in modest benefit.
The Mavs were equally unimpressive in their ability to contest high-percentage shots. It’s not that the Dallas defense was woeful in that regard — you’ll find that the Mavs a solid team across the board in many of these measures, but perhaps plagued by the fact that they’re merely solid — they just weren’t up to the elite caliber that those within the organization have targeted as a goal.
The Mavs ranked 13th in the league last season in FG% allowed at the rim, and 15th in FG% allowed within 10 feet. Both fine marks, really. Just not acceptable for a team that needs to be aiming a bit higher. Taking away as many high-percentage shots as possible is key for Dallas, particularly because their own offensive attack is lacking in those same attempts. They need to limit that discrepancy as much as possible, and to this point, they haven’t been able to do so to the degree necessary for extended defensive success.
Brendan Haywood and Tyson Chandler are both essential if the Mavs plan to improve their effective field goal percentage defense, but it’s also vital that Dallas’ perimeter defenders continue to play tight on opponents’ three-point shooters. The Mavs ranked 10th in the league last season in their opponents’ eFG% off of threes, and that kind of effort will again be necessary for Dallas to improve their overall shot defense. If Haywood and Chandler can perform better as a tandem than the combination of Dampier, Gooden, and Haywood did last season, Dallas’ opponents will not only have more of their quality attempts contested by the Mavs’ center duo, but will also be deterred from seeking out such shots in the first place. The Mavs need to keep their opponents’ out of the paint as much as possible, and the arrival of Chandler — a quality post defender and excellent defender of the pick-and-roll — to complement Haywood could provide Dallas with just the defensive boost they need.
The foundation is there for defensive improvement, but its up to Haywood, Chandler, and co. to build on it.
Rebounding
As measured by offensive rebounding rate (ORB%). Mavs’ 2009-2010 ORB%: .243 (26th); ‘09-’10 ORB% allowed (roughly equivalent to DRB%): .263 (15)
The easiest way to diagnose the Mavs’ offensive rebounding troubles is to trace the line from system to production. The Dallas offense often pulls its second big (Nowitzki, Marion, Cardinal) far from the rim, forcing the rest of the lineup to either hit the offensive glass or retreat to defend a potential break. Having Jason Kidd helps out here, but the rest of the bunch? Jason Terry? Caron Butler? A post-Phoenix Shawn Marion? They’re not the proper group to make up for the deficit on the offensive glass.
Defensively, Dallas has a collection of solid rebounders but few impressive ones. Brendan Haywood and Tyson Chandler are both quality board men, but neither is a standout in that regard. Nowitzki collects his fair share of boards, but his rebounding rate has dropped bit by bit over the last few seasons. Marion has regressed into a nice rebounder rather than an elite one, and the Mavs’ tendency to play smaller lineups undoubtedly hurts their efforts on the glass. Putting good rebounders at every position has helped the Mavs get this far, but without a single proven rebounding machine on the roster, I’m not sure they’ll be able to climb much higher.
Tyson Chandler may provide an improvement on the offensive boards over Erick Dampier, but overall, Dallas is the same collection of effective but unspectacular rebounders they were a year ago. Plus, some of the best rebounders of last year’s bunch — Drew Gooden and Kris Humphries — have been shipped out in the last year, meaning the addition of Chandler and a year’s worth of Brendan Haywood will have to first off-set those losses in order to bring an improved regular season mark.
Turnovers
As measured by turnover rate (TOV%). Mavs’ 2009-2010 TOV%: .122 (3rd); ‘09-’10 opponents’ TOV%: .138 (11th)
Here’s the thing: Jason Kidd turns the ball over as often as he ever has. 21.4% of his possessions end in a turnover. Yet Dallas still turned the ball over less often than all but two teams in the league. Kidd aside, the Mavs are unfathomably careful in their offense.
That starts with Nowitzki. His combination of high usage rate (28.8%) and low turnover rate (7.8%) are startling, even when cast against the league’s other elite players. Comb through the history books, and in only eight instances has a player (with an 800-minutes played prerequisite) posted a turnover rate lower than 8% and a usage rate higher than 28% over the course of a season. Three of those instances belong to Dirk. Two of them belong to Michael Jordan. This is a special, special place in the league pantheon that Nowitzki inhabits.
The Mavs’ correspondingly low turnover rate has a lot to do with Dirk having the ball in his hands more than any other player on the roster, but most of his higher-usage teammates are also impressively protective. Jason Terry, for example, had the seventh lowest turnover rate of all players who used more than 22% of their team’s possessions while on the floor last season. Caron Butler was also notable for his lack of turnovers, even if some of Butler’s other decisions with the ball are a bit confounding. Dallas puts the ball in the hands of players like Nowitzki, Butler, and Terry, while limiting the touches of turnover-prone bigs like Brendan Haywood, Erick Dampier, and this season, Tyson Chandler. The shots may not always be distributed in the most efficient manner possible, but the possessions are typically used by those least likely to senselessly give up the rock. The Mavs, as a result, are able to hedge some of their other offensive limitations by their quantity of attempts.
Considering that Dallas’ biggest offensive contributors will remain mostly the same (with the exception of the slightly turnover-happy Beaubois moving up in rank) from last year to this one, the Mavs should be pegged for a similar lack of turnovers in the coming season.
On D, the Mavs actually force quite a few turnovers considering how little they foul. Dallas ranked seventh in the league last season in defensive play rate (a per-possession measure of of steals, blocks, and drawn charges), and between Caron Butler, Jason Kidd, Rodrigue Beaubois, and Jason Terry, they have a number of perimeter players eager to jump passing lanes and strip driving players from behind. It’s not a full-on pressure defensive scheme, but the Mavericks do force their opponents to cough up the ball a fair bit. Not enough to make them an elite defensive outfit mind you, but enough to keep them afloat on their way to another successful season.
Free throws
As measured by FTM/FGA. Mavs’ 2009-2010 FT/FGA: .226 (15th); opponents’ FTM/FGA: .206 (6th)
Two Mavericks posted excellent free throw rates last season: Brendan Haywood and Tyson Chandler. Naturally, those two Mavs have some of the lowest per-minute field goal attempt averages on the team, so their high free throw rates are rendered nearly irrelevant.
Luckily, Dirk Nowitzki isn’t too far behind, rate-wise, as he remains the Mavs’ primary source of free throw attempts. Take out Nowitzki, and Dallas has some serious problems getting to the line. Even Rodrigue Beaubois, Dallas’ great hope, has trouble getting to the line with regularity. Maybe that was a case of an unknown rookie guard getting calls relative to his reputation, but Beaubois nonetheless failed to match his otherwise impressive scoring style with a high frequency of free throw attempts.
Beaubois would need to make a concerted effort to drive more than ever if he were to boost the Mavs’ free throw rate single-handedly, though a shift in Caron Butler’s shot selection could also help the Mavs in this regard. I wouldn’t wait on Caron to give up his jab step-jab-step-pump-fake-pull-up-18-footer routine any time soon, though. Dominique Jones won’t be impacting the Mavs’ free throw rate much in his rookie year (how could any player do so with the limited playing time projected for Jones?) but he’s worth keeping an eye on. Jones’ ability to get to the line paid huge dividends for him in college, and if ever given consistent minutes, it seems likely that he could replicate that same free throw shooting regularity.
The Mavs don’t foul much. They pick their spots to apply defensive pressure, and they don’t send opponents to the line all that often. It’s obviously both a blessing and a curse, as the Mavs’ lack of aggressive defensive plays could be one of the reasons why they’re a middling defensive team, even if it prevents their opponents from taking freebies from the stripe. With that in mind, this is a defensive ranking that I’m sure Rick Carlisle and his staff wouldn’t mind seeing take a little dip. If the Mavs are fouling more often, it could be indicative of more effective defense overall. Then again, it could just mean that Dallas is handing out points to their opponents, putting them back at square one after trying to treat a symptom as a disease.
All in all, it’s probably not worth worrying too much about how often the Mavericks foul, so long as the rest of their defense holds course. It’s nice to have opponents shoot free throws infrequently, but it’s nicer to have a more oppressive defense that limits opponents’ shooting effectiveness and forces even more turnovers than the Mavs currently do.
Many thanks to Basketball-Reference and HoopData, both completely indispensable in the making of this post and in life as a follower of the NBA in any capacity.
Jason Kidd, from his official website (via Henry Abbott of TrueHoop): “I’ve been working on my outside game a lot. Hopefully I can improve, shoot the ball a little bit better this year and that’ll make the game much easier for my teammates. One point of emphasis for me was the pick and roll. Being able to knock down jump shots coming off the pick and roll is really important in this offense.”
Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News: “Jason Terry is one of the most optimistic people around and it shows in the new tattoo on his right biceps. It’s a picture of the NBAchampionship trophy. There’s no date on the ink. ‘That’s the first thing my wife asked me when I got home,’ he said. ‘I’m leaving it open for when we get one.’ That’s when. Not if. And that’s not all. ‘I’m leaving the spot open on the other arm, too,’ Terry said, just in case he needs a place for multiple trophies. That’s the way the Jet rolls down the runway. He just knows this is the year the Maverickswill find the right mixture of talent, chemistry, luck and everything else to be a championship unit.”
Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference.com is previewing every team in the league, and I contributed to his installment on the Mavs. Check it out.
Zach Lowe of Sports Illustrated’s The Point Forward, details a familiar preseason theme: “If you’re searching for another team that might be able to rise up against the Lakers (assuming everything goes right), you could do worse than the Mavericks. But “everything goes right” encompasses many more things in Dallas than it does in most places. Outside of Dirk Nowitzki and perhaps Brendan Haywood, everyone is a question mark to some degree. Can Jason Kidd keep doing this? Can Jason Terry, at 33, make last season’s decline a temporary blip instead of the start of a downward trend? Can Tyson Chandler stay healthy? Will Caron Butler stop the ball and jack questionable 20-footers or attack and get to the line? How quickly will Roddy Beaubois recover from a broken foot, and when he does, will Rick Carlisle play him as much as he probably needs to when the games count? That’s a ton of questions, and we haven’t even mentioned Shawn Marion. There is a load of talent here, but I have no clue how it will play out.”
Slow and steady is the company line on Rodrigue Beaubois’ status.
Combination Shawn Marion fans and Food Network enthusiasts: your day has come.
Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News: “Caron Butler and Shawn Marion are not going to be mutually exclusive when it comes to court time. Though they ideally play the same position, they are going to be on the court together during games, Carlisle said Sunday. Those are going to be important minutes because it’s quite likely that their time playing together will come when Dirk Nowitzkiis resting. ‘They played well [together] in stretches in preseason,’ Carlisle said. ‘The reality is our [forward] positions are going to be covered by three guys for the most part – Caron, Dirk and Shawn. Marion and Butler are going to be playing together 10 to 14 minutes per game. And we’ll continue to work on the chemistry of that group.’”
Bradford Doolittle of Basketball Prospectus: “I think defense is the end of the floor in which Dallas can make the biggest leap as it tries to get over the hump in the West, and Chandler should be a big part of that. However, he could also become the same sort of quasi-viable offensive option he was with the Hornets considering the talent that will be surrounding him in the Big D.”
Donnie Nelson was so deliberate in his signing and waiving of Rashad McCants, that I and many others assumed all was going according to plan. In a sense, it was. But apparently, no one bothered to inform McCants himself of said plan.
According to McCants’ agent Lindsey Maxwell, though, McCants has not yet decided if he wants to be a (Texas) Legend after not receiving a solid opportunity to compete for a roster spot with the Mavericks. “We are disappointed that it didn’t work out with them and we look forward to Rashad getting a REAL shot at making it back into the NBA,” Maxwell wrote in a e-mail to FanHouse. “He is the best free agent in basketball that is available right now. He is in the best shape of his life and his shot making ability is better than ever.”
Since McCants is seemingly so close to rejoining the NBA, especially if he truly is in the best shape of his life and his shot making is better than ever, it would seem that a quick stint dominating the D-League would be a lay-up on his way to at least a 10-day contract. However, McCants does not seem sold that Frisco, Texas — a northern suburb of Dallas — is the right spot for him. “If he decides to go to the D-League, he will have to play for that team,” Maxwell continued. “I can’t speak as to Dallas’ motives, but (McCants) did not get much of a chance to ‘compete for a roster spot’ as Dallas had announced a couple of days ago. Right now, all of his options are open and he and his family have not yet arrived at any decisions.”
It’s hard to dole out specific blame without knowing further details of what went down between McCants and the Mavs/Legends, but Maxwell’s comments seem to indicate that the plan to land McCants in Frisco was not specifically articulated as a part of his deal with Dallas. McCants had no opportunity to compete for a roster spot, and if the Mavericks misled him in that way, this is on them, and there’s still plenty of time left for the whole plan to go a’splode.
The D-League may be the best avenue for McCants to work his way back into the NBA, but in general, I refuse to underestimate the actions of any professional athlete who feels they’ve been wronged. If the signing indeed went down as Maxwell implies, McCants may bail on Frisco out of his lingering distaste for the Mavericks organization. Regardless, this is already a far bigger mess than it should be. I’m not sure the Mavs should be faulted with if miscommunication or misinformation, but this is the kind of thing that should be squared away before pen is put to paper. Visions of Devean George’s one-man trade veto dance in my head, and now we have to wonder: did anyone bother to inform Sean Williams of his possible Frisco fate?
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