Dreams of Things to Come: A Look Ahead to 2010 Free Agency

Posted by Rob Mahoney on April 29, 2010 under Commentary | 13 Comments to Read

The Mavs’ potential for off-season turnover exists regardless of how deep they go into the playoffs. Given the unique financial circumstances afforded to the Mavericks this summer and the never-ending arms race that exists between NBA teams, no one should be surprised to see Dallas make significant changes this summer even if they somehow stumbled their way to an NBA title.

The reason for that is Erick Dampier. Due to the unique performance-related incentives of Dampier’s contract, he can be traded this off-season and then his entire 2010-2011 salary can be subsequently voided. That makes him an invaluable piece in a potential sign-and-trade, supposing Mark Cuban and the Mavs can entice one of this summer’s bigger talents and manage to convince a rival GM to play ball.That’s what makes Dallas’ off-season outlook so difficult to predict: if the Mavs are to acquire anyone of note this summer by using a sign-and-trade, they’ll have to do it with the blessing of the team said player is deserting. Accurately gauging how willing another GM may be to do such a thing requires an intimate knowledge of management style, manager personalities, ownership complications, and overall team strategy that goes far beyond my pay-grade.

Instead, the best way to predict which players could interest the Mavs is simply to analyze which among them may be the most attractive. Unfortunately, that also hinges greatly on the status of the Mavs’ own unrestricted free agent, Brendan Haywood. Haywood is a franchise center. He’s a capable big that can catch and finish, he’s a top-notch interior defender, and he helps well. Should Dallas lose him to another team this summer, their irrefutable free agent strategy would be aimed at securing another big man. Dampier seems like a lock to be moved; should his salary become fully guaranteed for net season by Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson’s choice, he’ll be owed $13 million next season. I consider myself a stronger advocate of Dampier than most, and I’ll be the first to admit that his level of production doesn’t even whiff that price tag. The allure of dropping Damp’s salary — either by trade or by cutting him loose should the right opportunity not present itself — is simply to great for him to remain a Maverick at his current salary, which makes Haywood an essential piece in the free agency equation. We know that Dirk Nowitzki is not a center, and should Dallas be left Haywood-less, they would essentially have four options:

  • Sign a cheap, veteran center for the minimum to start and play major minutes for the team. (Read: disaster.)
  • Try to acquire a center like Shaquille O’Neal, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Ian Mahinmi, or Jermaine O’Neal using the mid-level exception.
  • Try to acquire a power forward and play him at center, either through a desperate grab for Chris Bosh, a run at a mid-level guy like restricted free agent Luis Scola, etc.
  • Scrap the free agency dream entirely and try to trade Damp to a team looking to get out from under their center’s contract (Nene, Andris Biedrins, etc.).

How Haywood’s negotiations go this summer obviously hold enormous implications for the Mavs’ off-season plans, so speculating beyond that point is probably fruitless.

So consider me without fruits; I can’t help but think that a number of stars could look awfully good in a Maverick uniform.

LeBron James is this summer’s big prize, but the likelihood of him somehow ending up in Dallas is incredibly slim. It’d be nice, sure, and the Mavs would probably offer him the best chance to compete immediately of any potential destinations. The team is already established in Dallas, and that’s enticing. Then again, do you know where the team is also already established? Cleveland. Who knows how this year’s playoffs will affect LeBron’s decision, but title or not, I like the odds of him sticking with the Cavs.

Chris Bosh also seems like a pipe dream, mainly due to two factors: Bosh does not want to play center, as he’s expressed time and time again in Toronto, and he wants to be The Man, which he wouldn’t be in Dallas. The key in the Mavs acquiring any signed-and-traded free agent is the player’s desire (not just willingness) to come play for Dallas, and Bosh could be described as lukewarm at best when approached about the possibility of playing in his hometown.

Instead, if I’m the Mavs, I have my eyes fixed on the fortunes of two players, one of which is an incredibly unlikely target and the other only mildly unlikely: Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson.

Caron Butler is only the illusion of a starting shooting guard. He can, in theory, shoot, score, handle the ball a bit, and defend. He just doesn’t manage to do the former two efficiently, and his defensive abilities are competent and only likely to diminish with his age. Butler’s Game 5 explosion was so welcome because of the contrast it posed to his typically inefficient scoring nights, and having other scoring threats like Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry around Butler hasn’t elevated his efficiency like we thought it might. He’s more or less the same player he was in Washington, only playing well into April.

That leaves the Mavs still looking for a legitimate 2-guard, and the combination of Damp’s contract provisions and Butler’s expiring deal gives Dallas a unique opportunity. They could potentially offer a team like Miami or Atlanta a player of Butler’s caliber in a sign-and-trade, while also allowing them to dump a bit of salary in exchange for Dampier’s deal. The ability of those teams to acquire Damp and then cut him immediately at no cost is something that no other team in the league can offer in a sign-and-trade, which does give Dallas a bit of an edge. Enough of an edge to willingly sign off on the departure of a franchise player? Probably not, but the Mavs are hoping so.

The wild card in all of this is Rodrigue Beaubois. The rook quickly carved out a niche for himself as a highly efficient scorer, and he hasn’t even begun to actualize his full potential as an NBA player. Few players come into the league with the gifts that Beaubois possesses, and should the right prize be available, Dallas may dangle him as trade bait. Teams may not be eager to give up their star player for Butler and Damp’s savings alone, but if Cuban and Nelson are willing to include a rookie guard that has star written all over him? I’m guessing they’d at least get their phone calls returned.

As for the two players I specified, it’s simple: shooting guard would be the Mavs’ biggest hole in the rotation if they can hang on to Haywood, and Jason Terry wasn’t necessarily the ideal candidate, even his prime. JET still has plenty left and is ideal as a sixth man, but just doesn’t have the size or defensive aptitude necessary to guard opposing shooting guards well, and isn’t very good at guarding opposing point guards, either. Terry is much improved on the defensive end, but even those improvements don’t have him quite where he would need to be in order to be a highly effective starter.

Two guys that do have that defensive ability — in addition to elite offensive skills — are Wade and Johnson.

Wade is the dream that probably shouldn’t even be chased. For one, because Miami and Chicago are considered the favorites to acquire him. Rightfully so, as both can try to pair him with very talented players, and both boast some sort of hometown advantage. I’m confident one of those teams will land Wade, and they’ll be very, very happy together.

The Mavs could still have an opportunity to play home-wrecker here, supposing Pat Riley is willing to play along with Cuban and Nelson’s plans. I don’t see that as even a remote possibility, but again, I’m not Riles. Maybe he’s very high on Beaubois, or decides he wants to give Caron another go with the Heat, or maybe just wants to do right by Wade for all that he’s done for the franchise. These are not probable scenarios but they are scenarios, and the Mavs would be considered fools if they didn’t do their due diligence when the top shooting guard in the league (yeah, I said it) becomes available.

There would be, of course, that one thing. That one little thing. That one little he single-handedly (we’re not counting officials) destroyed the Mavs in the 2006 Finals thing. It would certainly make the relationship…interesting. There were comments exchanged from both sides in 2006-2007, the thought of the series still stings most Mavs fans, and I can only offer one piece of advice to all parties involved: get over it. This is Dwyane Wade. He’s a remarkable player with a hell of a career still ahead of him, and even though it’s extremely unlikely he’ll wind up a Maverick, the very thought should have Mavs fans sending him love letters and fruit baskets. They don’t come much better than Wade, and regardless of the past between him and the Mavs, his talent and Dallas’ needs should make him a top priority.

Consider  Joe Johnson the back-up plan. He’s older, less efficient on offense, a bit slower on defense, and generally not as Dwyane Wadey as Dwyane Wade is. That doesn’t mean he would be anything less than an excellent addition for Dallas. Messing with Atlanta is always a mess, but I think Beaubois could pose an intriguing piece for the Hawks in particular. There’s no reason that Rodrigue can’t do everything that Mike Bibby currently does, only with better activity on the defensive end, better driving ability, and impressive length. He could be a perfect point guard if the Hawks continue on with Mike Woodson (or at least his offensive and defensive systems), and Atlanta may find the idea of getting Beaubois back in a sign-and-trade far more palatable than letting Johnson walk.

However, as talented as Johnson is, there are two concerns. For one, giving a 29-year-old a five or six year deal could end up being a nightmare, especially with the new CBA likely decreasing the possibility of such long-term, lucrative deals in the future. Second, a lot of Caron Butler’s more irritating habits also exist in Johnson, Joe is just better. He’s still a jumpshooter and a lot of his offense in Atlanta has been isolation-centered, he’s just a better player than Caron. Whether that’s good enough to put the Mavs over the proverbial hump or not is unknown, but it’s certainly not a bad start.

It’s almost trite at this point to say “stay tuned,” but that’s exactly the approach Mavs fans should take with regard to the team’s future. So much of what the Mavs will be able to do depends on who wants what, who goes where, and what teams have which options on the table. Fathoming all of that a few months in advance definitely qualifies as impossible, and all that we’re left with is a microscope fixed on the free agent class, an ear on every news and legitimate rumor available, and a head full of pipe dreams and possibilities. The dominoes will be falling soon enough, and we know Mark Cuban will be ready to pull the trigger. Until then, all eyes should rest on Brendan Haywood, who could very well determine the Mavs’ free agent destiny.

  • http://twitter.com/Vini_the_kidd @Vini_the_kidd

    I have a Sugestion…What if Mavs bring Mr. Okur (a ofensive center with 3 pt range) and Dan Gadzuric(a good defensive center) with DAMPIER AND MATT CARROL CONTRACT!
    I explain How:
    a)The both of them , together will receive US$ 17 million
    b)Ok, Gaduzuric and Mehmety will cost 18 millions!
    c)Oh!This negotioans can be done!
    d)Utah Have Milsap, Kirilenko, and Boozer in ofesenve end.They can “accept ” a only defensive minded(ofr gifted) Center like dampier)
    e)In other way, Bucks can Receive Matt Carroll, if they don’t want to make a new contract with Stackhouse(which is old enough to continue on nba).And they have Bogut , Ilyasovva , Luc Mbah a Moute and Kurt Thomas.They have TOO MUCH BIG MAN.(and, in futer, M.Carroll contratct can be used as a cheap by the Bucks)
    f)For this mix works, i sugest put C.J Milles on the trade, so he and Okur can be brrought to Mavs, and him and M. Carroll can be trade by Gadzuric.
    g)I’m really a Mavs’ fan..I really believe Mavs can “kill” the Spuurs in this series..but mr. Damp ALMOST KILL THE MAVS for not being a OFENSIVE MINDED AND GIFITED CENTER that we need againsts DAJUAN BLAIR, TIM DUNCAN, ANTONIO MCDYIES…and…Matt Bonner!
    After that..imagine when we face Lakers!
    I pray for a Miracle this years…with okur and Gadzuric , the things will go by more easylly!

  • Kirk Henderson

    D-wade is 28 (Jan 17th, 1982). Joe Johnson is 29 (June 28th, 1981). 6 months difference.

    I’d look at durability as well. A 6’7 shooting guard and his game lasts a lot better (even though he has a lot more NBA miles than Wade) than a 6’4 shooting guard who is as likely to break into a million pieces as he is go for 40. Obviously I’d take either over Butler, but its something to consider.

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  • John

    It’s a rare occasion when I disagree with anything you publish on here, but I must say, you couldn’t be more wrong about Joe Johnson being worth us shipping out Beaubois. Not only is Roddy a better per minute scorer, but Johnson looks like he just flat out doesn’t care in the Hawks current series. There are only three players I can think of who I wouldn’t mind seeing Beaubois traded for, and their numbers are 23, 3, and 4.

  • Jose

    Y u if u get chauncey billups and carmelo anthony in exchange for caron butler and jason kidd!!~ cause both of them are more or likely worthless in the series!so!!~ F they might do that!!~and for the center Position,it can be pau gasol!!!~ i know marc cuban will do that!!

  • wizard09

    I would rather see Butler go than but would be a tough decision. You can’t trade both of them even for Wade
    or Johnson. You could throw in Jett in the deal sixth man
    of the year. If we get Wade or Johnson or Bosch with Dirk
    either Butler or Roddy, Marion, Haywood and another back up banger center we would be tought to beat in the playoffs. MaybeCuban can throw in cash also with Dampier.

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  • zebulon

    Joe Johnson is not an elite defender, he is not even a good defender. Despite all his physical gifts/size, he is a terrible defender, as noted by essentially all advanced defensive statistics.

    Your qualms about his shot selection could easily carry over to his defense – people privilege his defensive abilities because he ‘should’ be good at defense, even though he isn’t.

  • Chandler

    why shouldnt the mavs sign Joe Johnson he can score handle the ball, make big time shoots and is a great defender age is nothing but a number look at koby and mj and shaq.

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  • http://www.myspace.com/gruss82 Gideon

    So you so you cant win a championship with Dirk, well you dont know basketball. Name another player that has won a championship without 2 or 3 elite/allstar/ or superstar players. Kobe has Lamar, Gasol, Artest, Bynum,.Duncan has Parker,and Manu. Garnett, has Peirce, Ray Allen. Garnet made it the 1st round only once in his career until he joined the Celtics, and he is suppose to be such better than Dirk. Dirk even swept him in the playoffs. Now you name any superstar or star that Dirk has had. Steve Nash was probably the best, but he was always sick/injured with the Mavs, and Nash wasnt close to playing at a MVP level. The year after Nash left da mavs won 67 games, so how diid nash win the mvp. a team loose a mvp and still wins 67 games? Dirk isnt the problem, the problem is he has never had a consistent team-mate. The last semi star Dirk has had that filled the stat sheet was Finley and no one has ever said he was a superstar. He has never had A true stud that can get 20 plus points and carry the team every single night. Most teams that win Championships has 3 of those players, the Mavs only have one an thats Dirk. Dirk has won 50+ plus games for 10 years w/out help. name one other player that has done that. Even Jordan had a lot of help in winning, Pippen, Kukoc, Rodman. Please name a consistent player that Dirk has had?.______________, _________________, ______________. Any names yet.

  • taylor

    Beaubois would never be traded ƒor a 29 yr old jump shooter, particularly when he’d only be a slight upgrade over Butler at this point in their careers in my opinion. Besides, Cuban said he’d only give him up ƒor a couple players. The Mavs are really high on this kid.

    Butlers talent and expiring, plus Damp and a ƒirst rounder or two should be enough ƒor the Mavs to be legit players this summer.

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