Survival of the Fittest

Posted by Rob Mahoney on March 23, 2010 under Commentary | View Comments

[RSS users: this post has embedded video.]

NBA teams are valued based on their strength. That strength is evaluated through “power” rankings, through their brute force, and through their ability to execute a game plan without compromise. In the same way that we value unwavering opinion (after all, anything less makes an individual a weak flip-flopper), we praise teams that impose their will on others rather than adapting to circumstance. What the Trailblazers did pre-Camby was impressive, sure, but that storyline was a mere footnote on the NBA landscape while the powerful wills (or temporary lack thereof) of the Lakers and the Cavs stole headlines.

Power matters. It really does. Talent drives the game, the league, and the teams. But even more important is knowing the best ways to optimize the talent that you have, and that involves an incredible amount of flexibility. After all, why hammer a square peg into a round hole with a big rock when you can just swap for a round, well-fitting peg?

That responsibility starts with the players, and having an willingness to try new things. But the primary burden falls on the shoulders of the coaches. It’s the responsibility of any coaching staff to do more than execute a plan of attack; that plan should be adjusted, tinkered with, and even radically altered as the situation dictates. It’s not a concession to switch up match-ups or alter one’s rotation, but a sign of sound decision-making. Survival on the NBA is predicated on the ability to adapt and evolve, and luckily for the Mavs, that’s Rick Carlisle’s specialty.

Case in point: the Mavs use of Dirk Nowitzki on the offensive end against the Celtics on Saturday. In spite of their drop-off this season, Boston is still tied for tops in the league in defensive efficiency. That’s no accident, and even though Kevin Garnett is nowhere near his MVP production levels, he’s still a huge part of that. So while the Mavs-Celtics match-up is interesting for a variety of reasons, chief among them is likely the battle between a world-class offensive and defensive player at the same position. Take a look at this clips and watch how well Garnett contests Dirk in isolation. He prevents Nowitzki from gaining position, plays his favorite sides for spins, crowds him, and gets a hand up.

Of course, Garnett has help. The reason the Celtics’ boast such an impressive defense is because of their ability to rotate and contest. The system strengthens the inferior individual defenders, hiding their weaknesses and exploiting their strengths defensively. On this play, we see Rasheed Wallace (Dirk’s primary defender), Glen Davis, and Paul Pierce all play a hand in defending Nowitzki. ‘Sheed does most of the work as he traps Dirk on the wing, but Davis stepping up to protect the basket and Pierce getting a hand in Dirk’s face on the jumper cannot be ignored. Those are two areas of the floor from which Dirk is incredibly comfortable, and yet he has no room to operate against Wallace and gets a tough look against Pierce.

Then there’s the two-man game. This example comes from late in the fourth quarter, so perhaps it betrays my point a bit. But the Celtics excel at taking away what Nowitzki does best. Every pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop opportunity for Dirk was smothered, he was defended well in the high post and the low post, and it was clear that Boston knew exactly where the ball was going when Dirk set up shop.

The Mavs still worked the ball around to Nowitzki, but the important thing is that the Celtics could anticipate what Dirk was going to do when he caught it. Garnett and Wallace knew to anticipate the spins, and to crowd him. The Mavs best player was still making some tough shots on occasion, but for the most part he was having the most effective parts of his game (or really, his most effective areas on the floor) taken away from him by a terrific defense.

So the Mavs had a few options. They could:

  • Keep doing what they were doing, and rely on Dirk’s offensive prowess to trump KG’s defensive talents.
  • Work the ball through other players, and rely on the offense of Caron Butler and Jason Terry to win the day.
  • Keep going through Dirk, but alter the approach.

Rick Carlisle and Nowitzki opted for a combination of the latter, though Butler hardly carried his weight and Terry was good but well short of supernatural. The key to getting Dirk to 28 points on just 18 shots (with 57.8% shooting) was to take him out of his comfort zones intentionally by switching up the Mavs’ usual sets. That way, Dirk sees the change coming through prescribed play calls, but the Celtics were still operating under the assumption that the Mavs’ offensive scheme would proceed as usual.

Needless to say, it didn’t. Dirk was mindful of openings to score in different ways (he was much quicker on the trigger to fire on an offensive rebound, for example), and the sets were drawn up using a bit of misdirection.

  1. Getting it right.

    The scouting report on Dirk Nowitzki will tell you that he always goes to his left. It was part of his basketball development and helped to keep defenders off-balance early in his career. Now it’s a known fact, and you know Dirk is switching things up when he not only drives to his right, but finishes without pulling up for a short bank shot (as he’s been ought to do this year) or going reverse. He still goes to the left hand to finish at the front of the cup, but I think we can live with that.

  2. A subtle variation of an old theme.

    When the Mavs run the two-man game, it’s typically slow and methodical. Jason Terry works around a Dirk screen, is patient to see if Dirk is more open than he is, and if nothing is there on first or second glance, he explodes toward the hoop or an open spot on the floor for a jumper. In this case, J.J. Barea and Dirk run the two-man game in a completely different capacity (apparently by design). When Barea draws the attention of both defenders, he knows exactly where Dirk will be and dishes it to him with a ball counter. We’ve seen Dirk and JET do this on occasion, but in this case it seems far more deliberate.

  3. The weak side is the strong side.

    Here, Dirk takes advantage of a two-man game setup that doesn’t involve him. Terry and Eddie Najera go to work on the right side, while Dirk works to get open on the left. When Rasheed Wallace is forced to rotate to cover the cutting Najera, Nowitzki is left wide open from three. It was just Dirk’s 33rd made three this season.

  4. Sharing is caring.

    The easiest way to capitalize on an overly aggressive defense is to either put them in a position to commit fouls frequently (A.K.A. driving to the basket) or to exploit help defenders with smart passing. That’s what Nowitzki does here, as he finds an open Kidd on the perimeter after spinning into a Rasheed Wallace/Marquis Daniels double.

  5. Sleight of hand.

    On these sequences, the Mavs run the Dirk-Terry two-man game as a decoy. The play is not only obvious but so effective that teams have to pay attention to it, giving Terry the perfect opportunity to find open teammates on the perimeter. The Celtics were aggressive in pursuing the pick man at almost every instance; Haywood was smothered on each roll to the basket, Sheed stepped up to trail Najera, and Dirk was almost always covered. That left Terry with enough room and enough time to find the weakness in the Celtics’ rotation and exploit it. These possessions didn’t end with points, but they’re still well-conceived.

  6. Inside, outside, USA.

    Wait, you mean having a back-to-the-basket threat alongside Dirk yields tangible benefits? You don’t say. The opportunity to block a Brendan Haywood turnaround jumper is a bit too enticing for KG, which leaves a driving lane open for Nowitzki. Perkins does a nice job of contesting Dirk at the rim, but Nowitzki finishes by creating space with the off-arm. Slightly illegal, maybe, but highly effective.

  7. Do everything you normally do, only different.

    Dirk is so effective at running the pick-and-pop, that’s it’s a bit shocking when he changes things up and rolls to the basket. The real credit here goes to Barea though, who runs this particular sequence to perfection.

  8. So predictable it’s unpredictable.

    Mavs fans should be painfully familiar with this set. Whenever the Mavs want to set up Dirk along the baseline, they’ll run him from one side of the lane to the other utilizing a pick from either Haywood/Dampier or one of the wings. That allows the entry pass to go into Nowitzki easily in most cases, which is important considering that Dirk doesn’t really have the backside to protect the feed. This has really been a post-2007 development; Stephen Jackson and co. were so good at stealing and doubling the feed into Dirk that the Mavs need a counter in their playbook. So they run him off of a baseline screen, and the pass usually goes into Nowitzki without incident.Garnett knows this. But in this particular case, Dirk fakes his usual route and then makes a quick cut to the top of the key.

It might be hard to find solace in something like this after back-to-back losses, but these things matter. Knowing that your team’s star and head coach can adjust to serious defensive pressure is about as important as it gets. The Mavs may not face a power forward or team defense on-par with KG/Boston at all in the post-season, but if they can adjust to allow Dirk to get his against that type of opponent, what’s going to stop them from doing the same against L.A. or Denver?

Musings from Sloan: Fire Up the Flux Capacitor

Posted by Rob Mahoney on March 22, 2010 under xOther | View Comments

Thanks to the fine folks at ESPN, you can pretend you were at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. So clean off your glasses, don your pocket protectors, and set your calculators for stun as you tune into this video of the conference’s keynote panel, “What the Geeks Don’t Get: The Limits of Moneyball.”

It’s worth noting, though, that this was probably the least stat-centered panel in the entire conference. Still interesting and at least entertaining, but if you’re looking for a video to learn ya something, this probably isn’t the one.

The panelists:

  • Mark Cuban - Owns some NBA team, I think.
  • Daryl Morey - GM of the Houston Rockets, founding father of the Sloan Conference, everyone’s favorite GM since the Rox snagged Kevin Martin for table scraps.
  • Jonathan Kraft - President of the Kraft Group, owners of the New England Patriots.
  • Bill Polian - President of the Indianapolis Colts.
  • Bill Simmons - You’ve probably heard of him, and at this point The Sports Guy needs no introduction.

The moderator:

  • Michael Lewis - He of Moneyball fame. Not directly related to the NBA in that regard, but an interesting thinker in regard to the interplay between stats and sports.

Moving Pictures: Today Meets Tomorrow

Posted by Rob Mahoney on under Video | View Comments

Rodrigue Beaubois has had a season to remember, but unfortunately may be forgotten in the shadow of his draft classmates. He hasn’t been given the opportunities afforded to Tyreke Evans, Brandon Jennings, or Stephen Curry, and we can’t be certain of how Roddy would perform in those roles. But Beaubois has found a way to succeed in every situation he’s been placed in this season, which speaks to his incredible adaptability and promise. In this installment of Moving Pictures, we’ll take stock in where Beaubois is right now, and what he needs to do to take the next step.

A World Away, a World Ago

Posted by Rob Mahoney on March 21, 2010 under xOther | View Comments


Video via Angry Trey’s Blog.

Why yes, that is Gerald Green. And Pops Mensah-Bonsu. Tearing up the 2010 Russian Cup. Some sweet dunks by both, although Green and Pops eventually lose to a guy who basically just does slight variants of the same dunk over and over. Remind you of anybody?

Some pretty creative dunks in there, though, and even the basic slams are impressive. I’d take this crew over the 2010 NBA Dunk Contest field any day.

Boston Celtics 102, Dallas Mavericks 93: Abridged

Posted by Rob Mahoney on under Recaps | View Comments

Photo by Danny Bollinger/NBAE via Getty Images.

Box ScorePlay-By-PlayShot Chart — GameFlow

Continual improvement is an unending journey.
-Lloyd Dobens

  • The fact that this game shows up as an L in a sea of W’s doesn’t change much; the team that lost to the Celtics last night is very much the same team that rattled off 13 straight wins. This one result was obviously quite different, but this performance was just as imperfect as any during the streak, and just as promising. Dallas couldn’t close against a pretty determined Boston team, but the defense was still impressive and the half-court offense made a nice second half rally. The only trouble in paradise is that it was never really paradise to begin with.
  • This was a terrific game. Competitive throughout, no team registering any kind of insurmountable lead, and the stars on each side coming out to play. There were stretches where both teams were in a funk: the turnovers, missed shots, and lazy fouls added up like you would never expect from two contending teams. But the Mavs and Celtics were evenly matched even in their futility. That doesn’t translate to 48 minutes of beautiful basketball, but it did translate to 48 minutes of hotly-contested basketball, which may be the next best thing. Or the best thing if you’re a March Madness zealot.
  • The rumors of the Celtics’ demise were not greatly exaggerated. This Boston squad was dead, pronounced, autopsied, and buried months ago. What we have here is a team of undead soldiers. Kevin Garnett walks again in the Romero mold, lacking the quickness, explosiveness, and general transcendence of his previously human self. But he’s as belligerent a defender as ever, and he hounded Dirk into plenty of tough shots. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are perhaps a bit more self-aware in their second chance at life. Both are pained by the limits of being the walking dead, but they tirelessly carry out the goals of their mortal lives. Rajon Rondo follows the contemporary Danny Boyle model: a relentless, physically intimidating, quick, reactive, and utterly more frightening force. These guys have unearthed themselves and they’re hungry for brains.
  • On paper, the Mavs match up pretty well with the Celtics. Shawn Marion is a terrific counter for Pierce, Caron Butler and Jason Terry may not be able to stop Allen but they can certainly match him and then some, Dirk and KG are excellent foils, and the combination of Haywood and Dampier can hopefully negate any impact that Kendrick Perkins would have. Not all of that came to fruition last night, but the lineups present some incredible possibilities.
  • Rasheed Wallace’s “retribution?” Are we seriously talking about this? Come on.
  • Garnett played Dirk about as well as any defender has all season…and Nowitzki still finished with 28 points on 11-of-19 shooting. I don’t want to show my hand too much, because I plan to drop a video on this sometime in the next day or so, but the key to jump-starting Nowitzki’s production after a slow start was to take him out of the Mavs’ traditional sets. Rick Carlisle showed some real creativity in finding Dirk scoring opportunities against some elite defense, and that’s huge.
  • That said, KG (eight points, 3-9 FG, nine rebounds, five steals) was essentially a defensive specialist against the Mavs. Dirk defended him well, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The phase of Garnett’s career where he was a dominant scorer has come to a close, and while that puts quite a cap on his league-wide hegemony, it doesn’t entirely negate his influence. He can impact a game as a key defender and a spot scorer, and his work on Dirk could have been what put Boston over the top.
  • The Mavs centers combined for five points, 10 rebounds, and five turnovers. They were completely invisible aside from a pair of Haywood blocks, most notably a obliteration of a third-quarter Rajon Rondo layup attempt. It was an impressive play, but it doesn’t quite excuse the combined performance of the Mavs’ 5s.
  • The atmosphere at the AAC has been a bit lacking this season, but it’s nice to see the in-game entertainment folks stepping up their game.
  • Caron Butler (nine points, 3-14 FG, four rebounds) did not have a good night, but he was working hard. That’s all you can ask. The Celtics are a great defensive team, and while it’d be nice if every Mav could drain every open shot, sometimes it just isn’t in the cards. But we know that Butler is capable of contributing on a consistent basis otherwise, and that type of redeeming factor is what will keep Caron’s status separate from a Josh Howardian designation. Howard’s effort was criticized as much as his decision-making and his maturity level, but Butler was killing himself on the court. His three offensive rebounds tied for the game-high, and he added three steals.
  • Shawn Marion (16 points, 7-13 FG, six rebounds) is becoming more and more influential. Before, Shawn was a defensive stopper who could score. Then, he was a crutch in a time of need. Now, even with a fully-functional lineup (unless you count the left half of Jason Terry’s face), Marion is easing the burden on the team’s top scorers by providing some much-needed scoring help in the half court. Yes, in the half court. Marion may have started the game with a leak out into transition, but almost all of his damage came by cutting in the half-court game and finding open spots along the baselines. Some of his missed layups are still heartbreaking, but I think you take what you can get when Marion is carrying the scoring load for chunks of the game.
  • Rajon Rondo (20 points, 10 rebounds, five assists) was absolutely terrific in the fourth, as he worked against Jason Kidd in isolation. I can feel Mavericks Nation simmer over the fact that Rodrigue Beaubois couldn’t get off the bench until the closing seconds, and I feel you. Roddy is the most physically gifted perimeter defender the Mavs have, and his physique is practically tailor-made for a guy like Rondo. That doesn’t mean you cold call him in the middle of the fourth quarter when Kidd (11 points, six rebounds, nine assists) and (18 points, 8-16 FG, three steals) Terry are still playing well. Theoretically it makes sense, but contextually it didn’t.

Taste for Blood

Posted by Rob Mahoney on March 19, 2010 under Commentary | View Comments

With Jason Terry out of the lineup, his shot attempts had to go somewhere. He averages 13.7 FGA for the season, not to mention a notch under four FTAs a game. That’s a decent chunk of the Mavs’ possessions that wasn’t going to fade into nothingness; someone has to fill those possessions, either with shot attempts or turnovers.

Caron Butler seemed like a natural candidate to fill in some of Terry’s responsibilities, but he actually averaged more field goal attempts playing alongside Terry (14.8) than he did without him (13.4). Dirk averaged 18.4 attempts per game, which is just shy of his mark for the season (18.7). So where were all the possessions going?

Naturally, to two of the more unlikely Maverick candidates: Shawn Marion and Rodrigue Beaubois.

Marion, in all honesty, could be carrying more of the offensive load on a nightly basis. That’s just not his role on this particular team. Shawn’s asked to move within the sets, work on the offensive boards, set screens, and roll to the rim. And that’s exactly what he does. He can produce some that way but he’s not going to be the powerhouse he was in Phoenix because he isn’t always given the opportunities. Every run out on the break isn’t rewarded, because sometimes the best move is to slow things down.

With Terry shelved, though, the Mavs looked to Marion more than usual. He put up more shot attempts as he became a more central part of the Mavs’ offensive game plan, and the numbers — which were said to be a product of Steve Nash’s brilliance rather than Marion’s — bumped right back up to his career levels.

FGA (FG%)FTATOPPG
Five games without JET16.2 (56.5%)2.00.617.4
Season '09-'1010.8 (50.7%)1.81.311.9

The situation in Phoenix was ideal for Marion; the pace, point guard, and system all fit Shawn like a glove. But a situation like this one, where he’s among the foci of a well-constructed offensive system without the benefits of a fast pace (Dallas is 19th in the league this season), he’s still capable of performing at impressive levels. It’s not that Marion can’t perform like this on a near-nightly basis, it’s that the Mavs don’t necessarily need him to. It’s not the role he’s slotted to play, and though he has enough tricks to up his PPG to more standard levels, the offense doesn’t exactly accommodate him in doing so.

Beaubois also benefited from the increase in opportunity, but in a bit of a different way. Marion’s on the court for over 30 minutes a game, but just doesn’t have the ball in his hands enough to explode. Even if he wanted to go rogue and jack up 20 shots a game, he wouldn’t be able to. Roddy, on the other hand, has the ball in hand quite a bit, but has his stat line handcuffed by his minutes. His numbers project to 18.9 PPG, 3.8 APG, and 3.7 RPG over 36 minutes, which is pretty stellar for a player his age with his level of experience at his position.

When he was finally given a chance at starter’s minutes, it’s no surprise that Beaubois produced:

FGA (FG%)FTATOPPG
Five games without JET13.2 (53.0%)2.61.017.2
Season '09-'105.3 (50.9%)0.91.16.8

The competition level wasn’t terrific over those five games and the sample size on Beaubois’ numbers this season is so small that it’s hard to extrapolate any clear meaning from this stretch. But the fact that the increase in minutes is translating to scale increases in production is indisputably positive. The worry with per-minute stats is that as usage increases, efficiency decreases. Not so with Roddy, who managed to not only put up points in impressive volume, but managed to be an even more efficient scorer in the process.

This is exactly what the Mavs need to see from Beaubois at this stage in his young career: patience, gradual improvement, and an ability to produce when given opportunities to do so. The state of the team isn’t going to allow that to happen on a nightly basis (at least it hasn’t of yet), if only because there are too many good veterans competing for minutes in the backcourt. Not every rookie guard needs to be Tyreke Evans, Brandon Jennings, or Steph Curry. It’s okay to just be Rodrigue Beaubois, whether in limited minutes or not.

Something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks, though: now that Marion and Beaubois have each had a taste of what they don’t have, will they still be as inclined to buy into their roles? I’ve been incredibly impressed with Marion’s willingness to play along with the team’s plans for him, and equally so with Beaubois’ maturity and patience in dealing with incredibly inconsistent opportunities for playing time. But both had gone cold turkey, and likely accepted their fate and the role. Does the sudden bump in shot attempts suddenly make Marion a bit more shot happy? You wouldn’t think so, but having control of a basketball does strange things to men. Beaubois’ curse could be a bit more complex. Does having an increase in minutes suddenly make Beaubois even more assertive in the limited minutes he does get? Or less so? Or maybe Roddy just plays like Roddy always has, and though everything changed for a period of five games, nothing really has at all?

Both of these guys have bought into the system enough to respect it, and though they’ve had their run with Terry out, it’s business time. It’s a treat to watch Marion and Beaubois have their day, but things are shifting back to normal. The dream hasn’t died, but it’s faded back into the realm of what could be.

Call to Arms

Posted by Rob Mahoney on under News | View Comments

In all honesty, this has probably been a long time coming. A blog like The Two Man Game just feels empty with one person, and there’s so much work to be done on any blog, especially one covering an NBA team at a time like this; there is an endless amount of information to consume about a team and its players, be it anecdotal, statistical, in 140 characters, on video, or in person. The work is never done because there is always more to do.

Which is why I’m looking to expand the writing base here at TMG. Not to usher in a new era or take on a lesser role, but to help provide even more content and hopefully avoid spells where you guys are left out in the cold. Nothing should change aside from the volume of content here.

So I’m looking for a few candidates. You guys drop comments ranging from blips to diatribes, but many of them (regardless of length) are full of insight and wit. You’ve seriously contributed to the growing community here over the last year, and your comments are an important part of the discourse.

There are also those of you out there lurking in the shadows. Milford men, perhaps. Those that are neither seen nor heard, but still have plenty to say and deserve to have plenty hear it.

For the time being, it won’t be an incredibly demanding gig. I’m looking for someone to run the Grapevine, chip in with recaps, and contribute analytical pieces now and again. Here are the requirements:

  1. Applicants should be able to write about the Dallas Mavericks in a comprehensible manner.

That’s it. Maybe you’re a die-hard fan, or maybe just a basketball fan with an interest in Dirk and co. Maybe you’re a writer who happens to fancy basketball, or a basketball nut who happens to fancy writing. All styles are welcome, provided you’re able to contribute reliably and do good work.

So send in any kind of Mavs-centric submission to thetwomangame[at]gmail.com. Write a game recap, put your torrid love affair with Jason Terry’s jump shot in print, defend J.J. Barea, tell us why Dirk is a true MVP candidate, whatever. Write about whatever you want as long as whatever you want is the Mavs.

There’s no official deadline for submissions; I’m hoping this is one of those things where I’ll know what I’m looking for when I see it, and we’ll go from there. If you don’t think your first submission is your best work, keep submitting. Different topics, different styles, different formats. Whatever you think best showcases what you can do as a writer.

I’m looking forward to seeing the content you guys can churn out. Some of it may be posted here, or maybe not. Regardless, I’m looking forward to welcoming someone out there to the Two Man Game staff.

Heard It Through the Grapevine

Posted by Rob Mahoney on under The Grapevine | View Comments

  • A thought: had the Mavs not slumped in January, would Cuban and Nelson still have pulled the trigger on the deal for Haywood, Butler, and Stevenson?
  • Drew Gooden’s stats playing for California teams? 14.24 PPG and 9.55 RPG (Updated stats based on Benjamin Hoffman’s concept for the Times’ Off the Dribble Blog, here). The daydream of Gooden returning to the Mavs is long since dead, but man…wouldn’t that be something? And speaking of Drew Gooden…well, this.
  • Mike D’Antoni is confident that the Mavs will compete for the title.
  • Jason Kidd v. Opposing coach, round two (via Brandon George of the Dallas Morning News): “Late in the first quarter, Kidd was going for a loose ball along the sideline in front of the visiting bench when Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro grabbed it from the air. Kidd said he asked the official if he had jumped for the ball, what would have been the call. Kidd said the official told him that then it would have been the Mavericks’ ball. Toward the end of his banter with the official, Kidd slanted his eyes toward Del Negro and smiled. In late February, Kidd charged into Atlanta coach Mike Woodson along the sideline and drew a technical foul on Woodson for being on the court. ‘I’m always trying to learn how we can get the ball,” Kidd said. “I know Vinny, so I wasn’t going to run him over or anything.’”
  • Dirk Nowitzki: mathematicsized.

And Now, A Return to Normalcy

Posted by Rob Mahoney on under News | View Comments

It’s been nearly a week, and The Two Man Game has been all tumbleweeds and deafening silence. So what gives?

Well, for one, my incredibly poor ability to plan ahead. I was headed out for a short vacation, and all but assumed that Wi-Fi was in the cards at my hotel. It’s a staple of modern life, after all: electricity, running water, internet access. Groups of huts are deemed civilizations based on those criteria, right?

Not so. It was nice to take a step back from the game for a minute, and I was fortunate enough to be gone during a soft spot in the Mavs’ schedule: just two games in six days. But sorry for the lack of notice, the lack of updates during my absence, and the general lack of anything here at TMG.

So what’d I miss? Did the Mavs’ big loss to the Knicks validate any of John Hollinger’s rankings and opinions? Is the Mavs win over the Bulls still a victory, or a disappointment because of how competitive it was when it had no need to be? Are we to the point where J.J. Barea and Rodrigue Beaubois can live in harmony, each providing their own unique brand of reserve guard play? Bombard me with your thoughts on the Mavs of late.

Heard It Through the Grapevine

Posted by Rob Mahoney on March 13, 2010 under The Grapevine | View Comments

  • First of all, congrats to Kevin and Farhan, the winners of the Two Man Game Giveaway.
  • If John Hollinger is wrong about the Mavs and they win it all, what effect does that have on the progress of the statistical community at large?
  • A note on point differential/winning close games to (hopefully) wrap up the Hollinger talk: the important thing that point differential demonstrates is not whether or not a team can win close games, though that’s important. It’s whether or not a team allows itself to get into those situations in the first place. Of course there are factors that will skew the numbers — fluffing free throws at the end of a win, late surges for the losers when the winning team puts in their garbage time players — but the data seems to, somewhat counter-intuitively perhaps, better describe the team’s performance during the meat of the game than the finale.
  • Bradford Doolittle presents the Norman Dale Index, a junk stat that quantifies a team’s fundamentals. Doolittle used five criteria to calculate the NDI: taking care of the ball (turnover percentage), defensive rebounding (defensive rebound percentage), free throw shooting (straight up free throw percentage), challenging the other team’s shots (opponent’s effective field goal percentage), and ball movement (team touches per minute). It shouldn’t surprise you to know that each of the five criteria are Maverick strengths, which by this somewhat crude measure makes Dallas the most fundamentally sound team in the NBA.
  • The Mavs have the most wins in the NBA this season after trailing by 10+ points (17). (via @mavstats)
  • Checking in with long-time friend of the Mavs and former scout extraordinaire, Amadou Fall.
  • Marc Stein on the Weekend Dime: “‘I’ve heard it. I’ve never agreed with it. That’s on you guys.’ Mavericks guard Jason Kidd, reflecting Wednesday night — after a come-from-behind victory over the Devin Harris-led New Jersey Nets — on the criticism he and the Mavs received throughout last season because Harris, now 27, was the centerpiece of a trade package Dallas surrendered to acquire Kidd at the 2008 trade deadline.It’s now a near-nightly occurrence for reporters to stop by Kidd’s locker and personally withdraw those sentiments, with the 36-year-old in the midst of a renaissance that has fueled the Mavericks’ 13-game win streak.”
  • A happy birthday to Caron Butler, who turns 30 today. A 14th straight win is as good of a present as any, right?
  • Michael Lee of the Washington Post (@MrMichaelLee): “I also asked Josh about DAL winning 13 games in a row. Howard smiled & said, ‘They got a streak going. Pretty good.’”