No Game Is an Island: Opening the Floodgates

Posted by Rob Mahoney on November 13, 2009 under Previews |

The Dallas Mavericks visit the Minnesota Timberwolves
7:00 CST

The biggest disappointment of the 2009-2010 season thus far is not Drew Gooden’s sloppy play, Josh Howard’s nagging injury, or even the blown games against the Hornets and Spurs, but rather the sloppy, impotent offensive display the Mavs have put on over the season’s first eight games. Although the significant increase in free throw attempts has padded Dallas’ offensive efficiency and raw points per game numbers, one metric stands out above all: a disappointing and uncharacteristic .493 effective field goal percentage, down from .504 last season.

The obvious villain here, oddly enough, is Dirk Nowitzki. Dirk is averaging an impressive 26.5 PPG, but both his traditional field goal percentage and effective field goal percentage are the lowest they’ve been since his rookie season. His low shooting percentages are sandbagging an offense that was supposedly potent, negating the offensive impacts of replacing Antoine Wright with Shawn Marion and counterbalancing Erick Dampier’s hot start. In all of the moves made this summer, the Maverick offense was always considered a given. Dirk is still an offensive whiz, Jason Kidd is still a helluva point guard, and Jason Terry boggles the mind with his super-efficient shooting. Suddenly that offense is anything but a crutch, and though it’s been nice to watch the Mavs win games with stops and free throws, it would certainly be nice to see Dirk’s jumper splash net a few more times a night.

But honestly, there’s no reason to panic. Mavs fans are well aware of Dirk’s ability to bounce back from a shooting slump, and although this site (among others) puts Dirk’s offensive game on a pedestal for all to admire, he’s not flawless. And though Dirk’s shooting numbers may seem abnormal when compared to his season averages over the course of his career, a deeper look shows that Dirk has started slowly in each of the last four years.

Season	Dirk's FG% (8 games)	Mavs' Record
2009-2010	.427	5-3
2008-2009	.416	2-6
2007-2008	.443	6-2
2006-2007	.493	4-4

Although Dirk’s FG% over the first eight games of the 2006-2007 season appears to be sound, it’s still a full percentage point lower than his season average.

Dirk is going to bounce back, and once his jumper returns it will be greeted with parades and celebrations. Tonight seems a good a night as any, as a depleted Timberwolves team missing both Al Jefferson and Kevin Love will lean heavily on Ryan Gomes and Oleksiy Pecherov to defend Dirk. The open looks will be there, the lanes to the basket will be there, and it’s up to Dirk to jump-start his offense in any way he can.