Absolute Value

Posted by Rob Mahoney on November 24, 2009 under Commentary |

I’d love to grandstand, and tell you that Dirk has completely revolutionized his game, reinvented himself, or even gone back to basics. But in truth, this season’s Dirk Nowitzki has just another very good version of Dirk Nowitzki. There was no renaissance, just Dirk doing what Dirk does, even if in slightly different ways from before.

Nowitzki is an improved defender, but two factors of that improvement leave Dirk with the “defensive liability” label glued to his back. For one, Dirk’s advances on the defensive end were incremental, essentially beginning with the Avery Johnson era. For two, Dirk didn’t make a sudden leap in eye-popping defensive displays (a la LeBron), but instead made subtle modifications to his technique and increased his defensive awareness. That’s the kind of adjustment that comes from hours in the gym and the film room, and though Dirk will never be Kevin Garnett, he’s become a perfectly competent (and sometimes downright impressive, as he was against Tim Duncan in overtime last week) defender on one of the best defensive teams in the league. On that end of the court, Dirk is exactly where he needs to be: moving his feet, challenging shots, staying out of foul trouble, and making a difference.

On offense, the biggest modification of Dirk’s game is a natural expansion of his mid-range game. Nowitzki no longer seems reluctant to shoot 3s, opting for the benefit of that extra point when open. But even more impressive is Dirk’s increased shot attempts going to the basket, up from 3.2 attempts at the rim per game over the last three years (3.2, 3.1, and 3.2 respectively) to 3.9 per game this season, and a welcome bump in his free throw attempts as a result.

All that said, Dirk’s adaptations on the offensive end are more a matter of need than a desire to diversify his game. While I hardly doubt Dirk’s commitment to becoming a complete player, Nowitzki is desperately trying to jump-start his shooting in the best ways he knows how: by building his confidence with open 3-pointers, putting the ball on the floor, and getting to the foul line. Those are the reasons why Dirk is averaging a career high in points per game (26.9), despite shooting his lowest percentage from the field since his rookie season (.444). Not because Dirk has suddenly decided to radically change his game, but because Nowitzki’s bread and butter, mid-range jumpers, have gone sour. The attempts are the same but the results are significantly different. On jumpers ranging from 10-23 feet (which account for 12.7 out of Dirk’s 20.6 field goal attempts on a per game basis), Dirk is shooting just 41.7%, a far cry from his 48.4% last season. If anything in Dirk’s game was a given, it was those shots finding net on a fairly regular basis. Remove that given, and Nowitzki is thrust into a twisted Darwinian basketball experiment, left to his own devices, wits, and adaptive abilities to fend against the cruelties of nature. It’s survival of the fittest on hardwood, and Dirk is not only surviving, but thriving.

And as so often is the case, as Dirk goes, so do the Mavs. The defensive effort and focus has been there all season, but the Mavs’ offensive woes closely resemble Nowitkzi’s. But despite being in the bottom third of the league in terms of field goal percentage, the “new” Mavs dig deeper and deeper into their old selves, unearthing not new tricks, but deep-seated resolve. It’s the same resolve that guided the Mavs through their regular season and playoff successes, simply sparked anew by a different coach and a different system, and catalyzed by a few personnel changes.

This team, this 10-3, division-leading, world-beating, conference-eliting basketball team, is Dirk Nowitzki’s. The team’s success has coincided with building strengths of Dirk’s supposed weaknesses (defense, shot selection, clutch play, the last of which I scoff at). But despite Dirk’s tremendous play and the Mavs’ relatively surprising start, Nowitzki still has a hard time sharing a sentence with the likes of Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, or Dwyane Wade. Nevermind the fact that Dirk’s Mavs have faced injuries to three starters (besting Kobe’s Lakers), overcome a slow start to their offense (besting LeBron’s Cavs), and faced some pretty decent competition (besting Wade’s Heat). Nevermind the fact that Dirk is doing the impossible, leading an offensively-skewed team on a defensive rampage, succeeding in spite of his own and his team’s poor shooting, and unseating the Western Conference powers in the process.

This isn’t even about a head pat in the MVP race, or the glaring black and white elephant in the room. It’s just about Dirk Nowitzki and the respect he deserves. Not merely for contributions in seasons past, but for currently heightening his already extraordinary value under some fairly bizarre circumstances. You may not win the argument that Nowitzki has been the best player in the NBA this season, but there certainly is an argument. Name your criteria and Dirk delivers, whether it’s punching in ridiculous scoring numbers, creating opportunities for his teammates, or playing tough interior defense. Nowitzki has gone to work silencing the critics. But amidst all the deafening silence, I ask a simple question: where are the superlatives?

Shooting statistics courtesy of Hoopdata.com.
Career statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com.