Versatility
Posted by Rob Mahoney on October 21, 2009 under xOther | 
View Comments
Photo by Danny Bollinger.
Heard It Through the Grapevine
Posted by Rob Mahoney on under The Grapevine | View Comments
- I completely missed the tail end of SLAM Online’s Top 50 player rankings, but SLAM’s commenters did a great job of pointing out a travesty: Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony were ranked higher than Dirk Nowitzki. In most cases, I understand the tendency to put Dirk on the back end of the top ten. I do. And I have lots of love for both Durant and Anthony. But Durant is almost completely one-dimensional at this point, and Anthony only marginally more versatile. And when it comes to flat-out scoring, I’m not even sure that either is more skilled than Dirk. Nowitzki carries a 50-win team on his shoulders as the team’s best player, and Melo and Durant can at best only claim one of those qualifiers.
- Kevin Pelton chimes in with a reminder on preseason statistics, in light of yesterday’s post: [Preseason statistics] mean more than you might think, but are limited by the small sample size, making shooting percentages potentially misleading.” You can read Pelton’s previous studies on preseason performance here.
- Pun fun with Marquis Daniels.
One! Two! Three! Three Bats! Ah-ah-ah!
Posted by Rob Mahoney on October 20, 2009 under Commentary | View Comments
The preseason has long been upon us, so it’s about time we check in.
There have been plenty of things to watch so far in the preseason, and between new Mavs and new haircuts, I’d vote it a success. The easiest way to break down that success is to look to the numbers, even if preseason stats mean somewhere between nothing and less nothing.
First, the per game numbers (courtesy of Doug’s Stats.) for all games prior to tonight’s match-up with the Cavs:
| Player | Min | FG | FGA | 3P | 3PA | FT | FTA | OR | TR | AST | STL | TO | BLK | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barea, J.J. | 27.0 | 2.8 | 8.0 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 9.2 |
| Rodrigue, Beaubois | 13.8 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 6.2 |
| Carroll, Matt | 16.0 | 2.0 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 2.25 | 5.5 |
| Dampier, Erick | 20.0 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 5.4 |
| Gooden, Drew | 20.2 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 12.0 |
| Humphries, Kris | 18.8 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 7.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 13.4 |
| Jawai, Nathan | 8.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Kidd, Jason | 26.0 | 2.0 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 6.8 |
| Marion, Shawn | 23.5 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 20.5 |
| Nowitzki, Dirk | 26.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 19.4 |
| Ross, Quinton | 24.6 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 6.2 |
| Singleton, James | 11.8 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Terry, Jason | 23.2 | 5.0 | 10.2 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 14.6 |
| Voskul, Jake | 7.5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Or, if it tickles your fancy, the Mavs’ per 36 minute numbers:
| Player | Min | FG | FGA | 3P | 3PA | FT | FTA | OR | TR | AST | STL | TO | BLK | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barea, J.J. | 135 | 3.7 | 10.7 | 1.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 12.0 |
| Rodrigue, Beaubois | 69 | 5.2 | 11.0 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 16.0 |
| Carroll, Matt | 64 | 4.5 | 12.9 | 1.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 12.0 |
| Dampier, Erick | 100 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 7.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 5.8 | 9.7 |
| Gooden, Drew | 101 | 7.5 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 8.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 6.4 | 21.0 |
| Humphries, Kris | 94 | 8.4 | 15.3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 2.3 | 14.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 7.3 | 26.0 |
| Jawai, Nathan | 8 | 4.5 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| Kidd, Jason | 130 | 2.8 | 7.5 | 1.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 9.4 |
| Marion, Shawn | 47 | 13.8 | 18.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 31.0 |
| Nowitzki, Dirk | 130 | 8.3 | 15.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 1.1 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 27.0 |
| Ross, Quinton | 123 | 3.2 | 7.0 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 23 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 9.1 |
| Singleton, James | 47 | 1.5 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 15 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 4.5 |
| Terry, Jason | 116 | 7.8 | 15.8 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 31 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 23.0 |
| Voskul, Jake | 30 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 10.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 9.6 | 13.0 |
And hey, just for fun, Basketball-Reference.com offers up some fun advanced stats with the preseason data. I’ve taken the liberty of borrowing the top Mavs in terms of offensive rating and defensive rating.
| Player | ORtg | Player | DRtg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marion | 143.0 | Kidd | 98.0 |
| Terry | 127.0 | Humphries | 98.1 |
| Humphries | 125.1 | Voskuhl | 99.9 |
It’s easy to get swept up in the momentum of a few impressive dunks and some flashy numbers, but everyone in Mavs land is hoping that Kris Humphries’ preseason performance is more than a fluke. It’s clear that Kris has some value, but the extent of that value is a little bit fuzzy. At minimum, we’re looking at a Singleton-esque big off the bench, hopefully capable of playing some center. At best, we’re looking at a full-fledged Brandon Bass replacement. Humphries’ level of efficiency on both ends has been flat-out ridiculous for a player of his caliber, and to expect that to continue once the regular season opener rolls around is a tad generous. But if talking to the ceiling is an accepted practice, I see no reason why wishing for it should be any less the norm.
Marion’s production has been equally delicious, but there are a few footnotes. First and foremost, he only played two games. Austin Croshere could put up mind-numbing numbers over two preseason games, but that doesn’t make him the “missing piece.” Also, none of Marion’s minutes were played alongside Josh Howard. Having those two on the wing together could fundamentally change their production either for better or worse, but the absence of Josh is enough to think twice before proclaiming Marion’s greatness. But I won’t be stopped me from doing just that. In those two preseason games, he was great. Take from that what you will.
Micro, Macro
Posted by Rob Mahoney on under News, Roster Moves | View Comments
News all around this afternoon.
First, the Mavs have taken a step towards resolving their roster quandary. Nathan Jawai has been shipped to the Wolves for a future second round pick, though the year and protection on the pick have yet to be unveiled.
It makes sense from all angles. Despite the Mavs’ lack of depth at center, Jawai’s inexperience and defensive limitations made him expendable. Shawne Williams, on the other hand, while likely less attractive to the Mavs than Jawai, has a NBA rap sheet and a larger deal. Unfortunately for Jawaibberwocky (and possibly Jake Voskuhl), those two factors make Williams an awfully difficult sell to opposing GMs.
But the news of greater import: According to Marc Stein and Chris Sheridan, the referee lockout could be coming to a close. There’s nothing concrete as of yet, but any movement between the league and the refs is a cue for smile time. The replacement refs have done their jobs admirably, but if every regular season game turns into a television miniseries with periodic journeys to and from the foul line, things could turn dour.
Tweener
Posted by Rob Mahoney on October 19, 2009 under xOther | View Comments
Photo by Danny Bollinger.
Dear Chatty Cathy
Posted by Rob Mahoney on October 16, 2009 under Previews | View Comments
I know that you, dear readers, think all day and dream all night of chatting with me on the internet. And I’m here to make that deep-seeded desire come true. On Monday (Oct. 19th) at 2:30 CST, Marc Stein and I will be fielding Mavs questions as part of ESPN.com’s NBA preview. The chat will be archived and posted here for those that can’t make it, but I encourage everyone else to pencil me in for a 30-minute block on Monday.
So come, one come all. Tell your friends, loved ones, acquaintances, nemeses, barbers, and soothsayers. Good times will be had.
Just in Time for the Weekend: Nightmare Fuel
Posted by Rob Mahoney on under xOther | View Comments
Photo by Danny Bollinger.
The Starting Line
Posted by Rob Mahoney on under Commentary | View Comments
Drew Gooden is many things. Scholar. Gentleman. Jayhawk. Connoisseur of fine facial hair. And at least “co-starting” center for your Dallas Mavericks.
It’s going to take some getting used to. For me and Erick Dampier, both.
Say what you will about Damp, but he’s a serviceable starting center. Right around average, as far as I’m concerned. He can’t be counted on as a reliable scoring threat, he’s not the fastest guy in his defensive rotations, and he could never, under any circumstances, be called a dominant force, but the Mavs could do much worse.
Which is why it’s a bit surprising that the training camp ribbon had been cut, Donnie Nelson and Rick Carlisle were already whispering of Gooden as the Mavs’ starter at the 5. No big, really, considering the number of truly terrifying centers that go bump in the night are few and far between, and Gooden’s propensity to float on defense probably isn’t any worse than Damp’s heavy feet.
Of course, there’s a bit of an unexpected wrinkle in all of this: should the Mavs be more worried about maximizing the talent that they have, or manipulating the match-ups to fit their competition? Or essentially, if Erick Dampier performs better as a starter than he does as a reserve, is it worth it to grant him the title on face in exchange for his marginally better production?
It’s about as fine as lines come. Luckily for us, we have a small sample size that should give us a bit of a window into Damp’s potential production as a back-up. In the good ol’ days of 2005-2006, Dampier was relegated to the bench in favor of DeSagana Diop. Damp’s minutes didn’t change much, but his production was a bit different. Roll the ticker tape.
First up, let’s see how Dampier’s collective averages in seasons as a Mavs’ starter (2004-2005, 2006-2007, 2007-2008, 2008-2009) compare to his 2005-2006 numbers:
| G | GS | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | FT | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | BLK | TO | PF | PTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per Game (Seasons as Starter) | 71.75 | 68.25 | 25.0 | 2.75 | 4.5 | .617 | 1.6 | 2.6 | .585 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 7.0 |
| Per Game (2005-2006) | 82 | 36 | 23.6 | 2.1 | 4.2 | .493 | 1.5 | 2.6 | .591 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 5.7 |
Or for a bit more refinement, here’s how the per 36 minute numbers compare:
| G | GS | FG | FGA | FT | FTA | ORB | DRB | TRB | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per 36 Min (Seasons as Starter) | 71.8 | 68.2 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 11.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 4.4 | 10.0 |
| Per 36 Min (2005-2006) | 82 | 36 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 11.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 8.7 |
And just for kicks, a comparison in terms of a handful of more advanced metrics:
| PER | TS% | ORB% | DRB% | BLK% | TOV% | WS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seasons as Starter | 15.3 | 63.3% | 13.7% | 21.5% | 3.8% | 18.8% | 5.7 |
| 2005-2006 | 13.9 | 53.1% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 4.2% | 22.7% | 4.6 |
All statistics from Basketball-Reference.com.
Supposing that the one season sample isn’t misleading or flukey, there’s plenty to talk about here. Unfortunately for our purposes, plenty doesn’t necessarily mean conclusive.
- For whatever reason, Dampier has been a much more effective scorer as a starter. His straight up scoring numbers are superior, but where Starter Damp really shines is in the percentages (FG% of .617 vs .493, TS% of .663 vs .531). It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what went wrong in 2005-2006. Maybe it was just an off year for Damp, or maybe he really does have trouble getting into the rhythm of the game off the bench.
- The latter of those hypotheses is damaged by a critical note: Bench Dampier is a notably better rebounder. His per game numbers, per 36 numbers, and possession-based percentages were all better in 2005-2006 during the rest of his tenure in Dallas. So even though Dampier did score at a less efficient rate, he also created more possessions via markedly superior offensive rebounding numbers. Those numbers run opposed to the notion that Damp comes off the bench in a funk, as a “pure effort” stat like offensive boards would at least hint that his head was in the game.
- Regardless of his status, Dampier maintained a consistent number of shot attempts/minute.
It’s hard to predict based on just one season if Dampier is due for a drop in offensive effectiveness. But if benching psychology really was a factor in Damp’s 2005-2006 drop-off, it’s reasonable to believe that a “co-starting” gig may hedge the losses. Having Jason Kidd as your point guard certainly couldn’t hurt, either.
I guess what I’m supposing is the keeping of an open mind going forward. If Dampier somehow falls off a cliff when Gooden takes the reins, then perhaps he should be the starter, if in name only. Starter doesn’t have to mean finisher, and it doesn’t come with minute commitments. But some people need that comfort to know that they begin the game for their team, even if the nod is but a token. Damp’s a sensitive guy, and if stroking his ego helps to prevent his field goal percentage from sandbagging, then let him rack up the starts. Obviously the same applies for Gooden as well, which finally brings me back around to my point: the distinction between the starters and the bench will be blurrier than ever. Some games will inevitably end with at least one starter riding the pine, and Jason Terry comes off the bench despite being the Mavs’ second scorer. So be wary of putting too much weight in starting lineup analysis, regardless of how strong (or weak, if you’re one of those) you believe Kidd-Howard-Marion-Nowitzki-Gooden to be on paper.
Third Way
Posted by Rob Mahoney on under Previews | View Comments
Behold, the latest batch of Blogger previews, courtesy of Celtics Blog! This week spotlights those glamorous, glamorous teams of the Central Division:
Chicago Bulls
BlogABull.com | Give Me The Rock
Cleveland Cavaliers
Fear The Sword | WaitingForNextYear | Cavalier Attitude
Detroit Pistons
Motown String Music | Empty the Bench | Pistons Nation | Need4Sheed.com
Indiana Pacers
Milwaukee Bucks
Bonus Links:
If I Could Save Time in an Embeddable Video
Posted by Rob Mahoney on October 14, 2009 under xOther | View Comments
NBA.com compiled the top ten Mavs plays of 2008-2009, with a disproportionate amount of James Singleton. There’s even a Devean George sighting. I’m a fan of big shots and game-winners as much as the next guy, but I still can’t see how JET’s hanging dunk on Anthony Randolph didn’t top the list.
Thoughts?