Heard It Through the Grapevine 3-13-09

Posted by Rob Mahoney on March 13, 2009 under The Grapevine |

A little buzz among the other Mavs heads on John Hollinger’s playoff odds system, and I’m not sure I understand why. Here’s my take: I don’t know anybody who lives and dies by those rankings. It’s interesting to see how a big win or a big loss affects a team’s playoff odds, but it’s just a system of probability that takes recent play heavily into account. The predictions are appropriately salted, and everything is fun and games until somebody takes the fun and games too seriously. Hollinger hardly needs me to defend him, and I’m not saying that his word is absolute. His methods have their flaws, as any statistical methods do. So why are we getting worked up over the fact that Hollinger mentioned the Suns in a chat but didn’t mention the Mavs? Why are we disputing the fact that his system estimates the Suns chances of making the playoffs are “better than you’d think,” when we think the perception of the Suns’ playoff chances hover somewhere around 0% and his odds system has them at 26.4%? It’s playoff odds, peeps. Let’s all chill a bit, giggle when they’re absurdly wrong, and disregard them.
Speaking of, the Suns lost again last night, putting them a full six games behind the Mavs. On the other end of the standings, the Lakers clinched their playoff spot and division championship last night with a win over the Spurs.
A quote from Jason Kidd that caught my eye (via Pete Aldrich of the DMN Mavs Blog): “‘This is not a bad time to start having fun,’ said Jason Kidd. ‘And having fun becomes contagious. This was a trip marked as make or break by all the experts. For us to get two wins back to back … we’re the only ones who believe and that’s all that matters.’”
Randy Galloway throws some love Dirk’s way, and also nearly wrote an entire article without putting more than one sentence in a paragraph.
Just in case you hadn’t noticed, Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry are kind of important to the Mavs. Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News: “With Josh Howard out, it’s partly by necessity. But what Nowitzki and Terry have done during the three-game winning streak without Howard should remind everybody how formidable they can be. ‘We’ve lived and died with those two guys all year,’ coach Rick Carlisle said. ‘When it counts, one of those two guys is going to have the ball. And there’s a great chance that the other one of the two is going to be involved. They’ve come up big for us all year.’”
R-I-D-I-C-U-L-O-U-S NCAA basketball game last night in the Big East tournament between Syracuse and UConn that went through 6 overtimes before deciding a winner. Syracuse’s Johnny Flynn played 67 minutes. UConn was 2 points away from having every one of their starters get a double-double. As someone who writes a basketball blog (NBA-specific or not), it would be a crime for me to not at least mention it. Meanwhile, my Longhorns are looking awfully good, and their chances at the Big 12 title just skyrocketed with the elimination of Oklahoma (Thanks, OK State.) and Kansas (Thanksomuch, Baylor.). HOOK ‘EM.
Tim Cowlishaw of the Dallas Morning News is looking up and looking forward, taking a peek at some possible playoff opponents.
Injury notes: Monta Ellis returned for the Warriors on Wednesday, and will play tonight. Devean George should miss the game tonight with the same knee issues that kept him out of the tail-end of the game in Portland, but J.J. Barea is expected to suit up and start once again.
Look out, it’s a trap!

Tags: Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry

Rhett said,

Read Galloway’s article. As someone who grew up with the Mavs and watched Dirk play from his rookie season we should really be ashamed of ourselves for having an iffy attitude about his career. I understand the NBA is about entertainment and you would never use the words ‘flashy’ or ‘graceful’ to describe Dirk. But ‘effective’ and ‘winner’ fit pretty nicely.
Of all the athletes in the DFW area Dirk is the one I’ve never felt like cheated me out of money. Every year he comes back with something new. Started out catch and shoot, added dribble drive, spin move, fade away, help defense, nifty little strip move when defending the post - the list of things he ‘worked’ on to improve goes on and on. Sure, it would be nice if he won a title by now. It would also be nice if he didn’t play his whole career with either Shawn Bradley or Eric Dampier.
So, there you go. Flashy he isn’t, but one of the very best? Certainly.
Rhett said,

Btw, Hollinger is being a twit. I do giggle at it, but it’s awful fun to call him out. Has the guy ever laughed at himself?
Kevin said,

How is Hollinger a twit, he’s just saying it’s not over yet. It’s not, Pheonix has an easier schedule from here on out and it’s not like they got blown out by Dallas or Cleveland. I’m pretty sure we learned in 06 that it’s not over til it’s over, I know I’m not laughing until we have that x by our name in the standings.
And people in Dallas not supporting Dirk seems ridiculous to me. He’s not on the level of Shaq or Duncan but other than that he’s on the same playing field as anyone else from the era in my opinion, Kobe had Shaq to help him win championships, KG needed Pierce to do all the crunch time scoring in the playoffs, Dirk has just had Nash, Terry and Howard as sidekicks (good players but not on the level of those other guys. I see a lot of parallels between Dirk and Donovan McNabb, anyone agree? Dirk is the best player on a Mavs team that has won 50 games a season for like 8 or 9 years and came within a Bennet Salvatore of the NBA Title. McNabb took his Eagles to 4 NFC championship games and a Superbowl. Yet, it’s never enough with either guy for some reason. I’ve got a couple theories with Dirk: One he came into the NBA as a terrible defender so when he loses people just kind of toss him off as a soft player that doesn’t play “winning” basketball. The other being that he’s an awkward German dude when he looks bad he looks really bad.
Charles said,

People who still call Dirk “soft” are people who do not watch Mav games. The man is a killer, period.
There are only a handful of players in the NBA with an unstoppable go-to move and Dirk is one of those players. It’s a joy watching the man work the top of the key, much like the feeling I get watching Duncan work the post.
wacc_attack said,

Hollinger is a “twit” (not sure I’d use that term, prob. just determined not to be proven wrong) b/c Dallas is 1 game out of home court for Rd 1, yet he makes it seem like the race to the bottom is solely between us and the Suns’ the possibility of us zipping past teams like Houston, Denver, or Portland does not even enter his realm of possibilities. We win tonight and 1-2 teams lose, and we’re up a few spots. That’s why; he does not even consider the possibility that a team like Dever - who is literally imploding before our eyes - can drop below us. Or Houston, who’s schedule is tougher than ours, could have 2+ losses more than the Mavs from now til seasons end.

And the old debate with Dirk. Ah yes. In terms of dominance, yes - Dirk is not as dominant as Shaq. But as far as Duncan goes? I’ll argue that all day long. Give Dirtay David Robinson, or Manu, or Parker, and see what he can do. Parker and Manu are simultaneously creators and scorers. Parker can punk you for 40 and drop 10 dimes on you. Manu can pop that 3 in your eye, then steal the ball and dish it to TD. Nashie was never a real scorer, never got out of the teens. Jet isn’t solid enough as a PG, Howard is ultra-streaky and ball hogish, and Kidd is straight up too old to score 20+ anymore. Harris left before he could prove himself. Dirk never had a supporting cast that could be considered on par with those of Duncan.
Rob Mahoney said,

I wouldn’t say that he hasn’t considered the possibilities. Even if you have problems with Hollinger’s conclusions, the guy isn’t lazy. The Nuggets aren’t playing well right now, but on the season they have been a better team than the Mavs. Obviously anything is possible at this point (as Hollinger notes when he says that it basically comes down to a coin flip), his personal opinion is (as noted when he prefaces his prediction with “subjectively,”) is that the Mavs will wind up 8th. It’s entirely possible.

Dirk’s definitely in Duncan’s league, but he’ll never be given the respect he deserves because of the rings. Offensively, Dirk is undeniably a more dominant player in my opinion. But where Duncan separates himself and makes up for the ground he loses on offense is on the defensive end. Duncan is one of the best post defenders of the generation. The teammates help, but the system functions because Duncan is there to anchor the defense. What if Dirk had Manu and TP as sidekicks? Who knows, but I do know that Dirk couldn’t make the Spurs system work like Duncan does.
wacc_attack said,

True, all are entitled to their opinion. Never called the man lazy; the math he incorporates in his work probably knocks the cover off the ball. All I am saying is that if the Hornets were in 8th, or the Lakers, each one of those “Phoenix still has a shot” lines would be accompanied by “and its not only [fill in name of 8th place team] who is in danger of dropping out.” It clearly makes sense to talk about Phoenix’s chances in terms of catching the last team still in the game, and that happens to be us.

Question: if given the option, do you take Dirk or TD in each one’s repsective prime?
Charles said,

Aww man, don’t ask questions like that.
Chaz said,

Hollinger needs to let the Suns go just like the Mavs did earlier this week. The only reason I’d want to see the Suns remain competitive is because I’ve got tickets to the April 5th game, and I don’t want to see the Suns mailing it in.
wacc_attack said,

oh man i am PUMPED for that late March - early April home stretch. Denver, Hornets, Jazz, Suns. Hoooooo… Daddy might have to splurge on some nice seats just to see JET swoosh a trey in Deron’s face.
Kevin said,

As much as I love Dirk, you have to go with Duncan. 4 rings to one finals appearance is too glaring. I disagree with your assessment of the level of their teammates though. Manu and Parker may be better than anyone Dirk has played with but Dallas has also always been much more willing to spend for depth where San Antonio has a revolving door of unknowns. Robinson only had a couple good years with Duncan as well. The difference in their defense is greater than the difference in their offense, Duncan also plays fewer minutes which is part of the large gap in ppg.